印度難以很快超越中國,雖經濟相對亮眼

The truth may finally be wearing off the old saying that India only ever compares itself with itself. As the Indian economy has proved to be one of the least dim spots in a gloomy emerging market landscape, boasts are multiplying that it is overtaking China as the engine of world expansion. Jayant Sinha, India's junior finance minister, recently laid down the bold prediction that "in coming days, India will leave China behind as far as growth and development matter'.

人們老說，印度永遠只是自己與自己比較，這句話或許終於開始站不住腳了。在一片灰暗的新興市場圖景中，印度經濟事實上相對比較亮眼，於是印度將取代中國成爲世界增長引擎的吹噓也越來越多。印度副財長賈揚特·辛哈(Jayant Sinha)最近大膽預測稱，“用不了多久，印度就將在增長和發展方面把中國甩在身後。”。

Not, as it were, so fast. While India's short-term macroeconomic performance has put it at a better place in the cycle than most big emerging markets, the longer-term structural problems that have kept it in a lower growth class than China unfortunately persist, as do the political elephant traps awaiting intrepid reformers.

這麼說吧，就算印度能把中國甩在身後，也不會那麼快。儘管印度宏觀經濟短期表現搶眼，讓它在週期中的位置好於大多數的大型新興市場，但較長期的結構性問題令人遺憾地一直存在（該問題讓印度與中國相比處於較低的增長級別），擺在無畏改革家面前的政治上的大象陷阱同樣如此。

On the face of it, the Indian economy is performing well, and the popularity of Narendra Modi, the prime minister elected on the promise of liberalising reform last year, is holding up. Christine Lagarde, IMF managing director, has referred to India as a "bright spot" in the slowing global economy. Growth equalled China's last year at 7.3 per cent, and the IMF predicts India will be the fastest-growing large economy in the world this year.

表面看來，印度經濟表現良好，去年憑藉承諾推行自由化改革而當選的印度總理納倫德拉·莫迪(Narendra Modi)，如今依然深受民衆歡迎。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)總裁克里斯蒂娜·拉加德(Christine Lagarde)認爲印度是不斷放緩的全球經濟中的一個“亮點”。印度去年的增長率與中國相當，都是7.3%，IMF預測，印度今年將成爲全球增長最快的大型經濟體。

The reality is less encouraging. For one, the statistics may quite simply be wrong. A new data series for GDP introduced in February did much of the work in raising India's growth rate near China's, and the numbers, with a short history and without detailed data to underpin them, sit at odds with other indicators such as industrial production and imports.

現實情況則沒有那麼樂觀。一方面，統計數據很可能是錯的。印度今年2月引入的一個新的GDP數據系列調高了它去年的增長率，對該數據趕上中國起到了很大作用，這些數值歷史短暫，沒有詳細的基礎數據作支撐，而且與工業產值和進口等其他指標相沖突。

Second, the current conjuncture has been delivered by a number of one-off factors. The falling global oil price since late 2014 has benefited India both in holding down inflation and in helping Mr Modi reform public finances by cutting expensive government fuel subsidies without raising the price to consumers.

其次，印度去年增長率趕上中國是一系列一次性因素造就的。自2014年末以來，全球油價“跌跌不休”，這讓印度從兩方面受益，一方面通脹得到抑制，另一方面莫迪的公共財政改革具備了比較有利的條件，讓他能夠在不用向消費者提高價格的情況下削減昂貴的政府燃料補貼。

Third, substantial impediments remain to the challenge of increasing investment, particularly in infrastructure, to unlock India's potential for competing with east Asian countries for the manufacturing industry currently being priced out of China by rising wages and costs. Growth in manufacturing came to a halt between 2012 and 2014 after several years of expansion, casting severe doubts on its underlying momentum.

第三，在眼下中國工資水平和成本不斷上升，導致製造業被迫撤離之際，印度希望增加投資（尤其是基礎設施方面的投資），以釋放自己的潛力，與亞洲東部國家競爭、吸引從中國撤離出來的製造業落戶。要實現這個願望，印度依然面臨重大障礙。在數年擴張之後，印度製造業增長在2012年至2014年間出現停滯，令人嚴重懷疑其潛在動能。

Certainly, macroeconomic policy has improved compared with earlier eras. Fiscal and current account deficits remain manageable. The Reserve Bank of India, which has traditionally struggled with a multiplicity of targets and instruments, adopted a more conventional model, targeting consumer price inflation using the short-term interest rate. Under Raghuram Rajan, who took over as governor in 2013, the RBI got on top of inflation by rapidly raising rates. It has now been able to cut them by 125 basis points to stimulate growth while other EM countries such as Turkey and Brazil have had to tighten.

當然，與早些時期相比，宏觀經濟政策已經有所改善。財政赤字和經常賬戶逆差依然可控。從傳統上來說，印度央行(Reserve Bank of India)處理不好多樣化的目標和工具，它採取了更爲常規的模型，使用短期利率來控制居民消費價格指數(CPI)。拉古拉姆·拉詹(Raghuram Rajan)於2013年出任印度央行行長，在他的領導下，該行通過迅速提高利率控制住了通脹。現在印度央行能夠降息125個基點來刺激增長，而土耳其和巴西等其他新興市場國家則不得不緊縮。

But the RBI statement accompanying its latest cut, a larger-than-expected 50 basis points on September 29, made quite clear that the contribution of monetary policy to growth was running out of room. Mr Rajan said: "While the Reserve Bank's stance will continue to be accommodative, the focus of monetary action for the near term will shift to working with the Government to ensure that impediments to banks passing on the bulk of the cumulative 125 basis points cut in the policy rate are removed."

但是，伴隨着最近一次降息——9月29日利率下調50個基點，超出市場預期——印度央行的聲明已經相當明確地表明，貨幣政策對增長的貢獻空間正逐步用盡。拉詹稱，“儘管印度央行將繼續維持寬鬆立場，但近期貨幣舉措的重點將轉向與政府一道努力，以確保阻礙銀行將125個基點的漸增式政策性利率下調大部分傳遞下去的障礙得到清除。”

Indeed, problems in the banking sector are exactly one of the problems holding back investment. State-controlled banks have overlent, often under political inducement, to failed infrastructure projects, and overall the accretion of bad loans in the system is blocking the extension of fresh credit. The state banks will need new capital over the next few years, the government wanting nearly two-thirds of it to be raised from markets, but whether that will permit the widescale rationalisation and privatisation that many banks need remains to be seen.

的確，銀行業的問題正是阻礙投資的因素之一。國有銀行在失敗的基礎設施建設項目上過度放貸（通常是在政治原因誘導下），而且銀行體系內累積的整體壞賬正阻礙着新貸款的發放。未來數年，國有銀行將需要新資本——政府希望從市場籌集其中的三分之二——但是這是否會使得許多銀行得以實施它們亟需的普遍重組和私有化，仍有待觀察。

There is a problem with the demand for investment lending as well as the supply. India has always struggled to expand its industrial sector on a scale to match the fast-growing economies of east Asia, and the share of manufacturing in the Indian economy appears to have stalled at a lower rate than for other emerging economies.

投資貸款的需求和供應都存在一個問題。印度一直難以將自己的工業部門擴大至可以與快速增長的東亞經濟體相抗衡的規模，同時製造業在印度經濟中所佔份額的增長速度似乎已經在低於其他新興經濟體的水平上陷入停滯。

Alongside poor supporting infrastructure, one of the reasons has almost certainly been the difficulty of acquiring land for industrial development, given the complexity of antiquated land laws. Long before Mr Modi came to power, the problem was symbolised by Tata being forced to relocate the manufacturing plant for its Nano car across India after it was driven out of its initial site in West Bengal by angry locals, raising the cost of the project.

除了基礎設施不完善之外，鑑於印度過時的土地法的複雜性，幾乎可以肯定地說，工業開發用地難以獲得也是阻礙印度製造業發展的一個原因。這一問題可以以塔塔(Tata)遷廠事件爲代表。那還是在莫迪上臺之前，當時，因爲當地人抗議，塔塔被迫放棄在西孟加拉邦(West Bengal)建Nano汽車生產廠，將廠址遷往印度別處，使得項目成本增加。

Reforming land acquisition laws was one of Mr Modi's signature projects as prime minister. But a change in the law, along with the introduction of a value-added “Goods and Services Tax”, stalled this summer in a session of parliament dominated by corruption scandals rather than legislative progress. Without the ability to build large-scale industrial plants near a source of workers, any Indian push into manufacturing is likely to be dominated by capital-intensive projects that provide fewer jobs.

對土地徵用法律進行改革是莫迪作爲總理的標誌性項目之一。但是修訂法律、以及引入增值性“商品及服務稅”(GST)的議案，今年夏天在腐敗醜聞纏身、打亂立法議程的議會會期中擱淺。考慮到企業無法在勞動力密集地區附近建設大型工廠，印度推動製造業發展的任何努力可能都會以提供較少就業的資本密集型項目爲主。

Mr Modi's government insists it will push on with reform but, given the snarl-ups in parliament over the summer, his political space is shrinking. An important test of his government's political momentum comes next month in the state elections in Bihar. The eastern state has long been one of India's poorest and, while it has been growing rapidly, it has struggled to expand its manufacturing sector. If Mr Modi's message of clearing away the impediments to investment does not resonate, it does not bode well for his chances of maintaining momentum into next year.

莫迪政府堅稱將繼續推進改革，但是考慮到整個夏天議會的混亂，他的政治操作空間正在縮小。在下個月比哈爾邦(Bihar)的議會選舉中，莫迪政府的政治勁頭將迎來重要考驗。位於印度東部的比哈爾邦長期以來一直是印度最貧困的邦之一，儘管目前正在迅速增長，但比哈爾一直難以擴大其製造業。如果莫迪清除投資障礙的信息沒能在比哈爾引起共鳴，這對莫迪明年能否繼續維持其政治勁頭將不是個好兆頭。

For the moment, it seems that India will be happy being regarded as a standout in the otherwise disappointing emerging market class. If its cyclical advantage fades and it returns to its familiar sub-China levels of growth, its politicians are unlikely to be so vainglorious.

目前，印度似乎會滿足於被認爲在整體令人失望的新興市場經濟體中一枝獨秀。如果印度的週期性優勢消失，它回到它並不陌生的低於中國的經濟增速水平，那印度的政界人士可能就不會如此洋洋自得了。