中國2030年超越美國成經濟強國

A new U.S. intelligence assessment says China is expected to surpass the United States as the leading economic power by 2030, but the U.S. will remain a top world leader.

The assessment was released Monday by the National Intelligence Council of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
It predicts that Asia will surpass North America and Europe combined in terms of indices of overall power -- in gross domestic product, population size, military spending and technological investment.

The report says the world will see an expanding middle class by 2030, and for the first time a majority of the world's population will not be impoverished.

It notes an expected higher demand on resources, as the global population expands by about a billion to 8 billion people. It says nearly half of the world's population will live in areas with severe water stress.

It says China and India are vulnerable to shortages of key resources, while limited resources such as water and arable land could increase the risks of intrastate conflict in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and parts of the Middle East.

It says the United States will likely be energy independent, while Russia, Europe and Japan are predicated to see slow economic declines.

The assessment anticipates that the Middle East will remain the world's most volatile region, and any future wars in Asia and the Middle East could include a nuclear component, making conflicts hard to contain and with global impact.

It also warns that countries including Afghanistan, Burundi, Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen face a high risk of state failure.

The National Intelligence Council publishes a global trends report every four years. The report is an analysis of information from the U.S. intelligence community and experts in the U.S. and abroad.美國一項新的情報評估報告說，預計中國將於2030年超越美國，成爲主要的經濟強國。不過，美國將保持全球領導地位。

美國國家情報委員會國家情報總監辦公室星期一發布了這項評估報告。

報告預測亞洲將在綜合力量的各項指標上超越北美和歐洲的總和─包括國內生產總值、人口、軍費開支和技術投資。

報告說，世界將在2030年看到一支龐大的中產階級隊伍，並將出現有史以來全球絕大多數人口不再貧困的局面。

報告注意到，全球人口將增長10億左右至80億，因此對資源會有更多需求。報告說，近一半的世界人口將生活在水資源嚴重緊缺的地區。

報告說，中國和印度在關鍵性資源短缺方面很脆弱。與此同時，有限的資源，如水和可耕地，可能會在非洲撒哈拉以南地區，南亞和中東部分地區增加國內衝突的風險。

報告說，美國有可能將保持能源獨立，與此同時，俄羅斯、歐洲和日本預計出現緩慢的經濟衰退。

評估報告預測，中東將繼續是世界上最爲動盪的地區，並且任何在亞洲和中東爆發的未來戰爭都可能會動用核武器，從而很難控制衝突規模，進而給全球造成衝擊。

報告還警告，包括阿富汗、布隆迪、巴基斯坦、索馬里和也門在內的國家面對成爲失敗國家的高風險。美國國家情報委員會每4年發佈一次全球趨勢報告。這是一份來自美國情報部門和美國國內外專家的情報分析報告。