中國經濟放緩 印度彎道超車

Shining India is back. At least that’s what many hyperbolic Indians would have you believe. With China’s economy slowing and its markets and policymaking credentials upended, India is plausibly poised to take over as the world’s fastest-growing large economy. Many Indians, deploying language that evokes the “India Shining” campaign used when Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata party was last in power a decade ago, see more than a glimmer of opportunity in China’s misfortunes.

大放光芒的印度回來了。至少，許多喜好誇誇其談的印度人會讓你如此認爲。隨着中國經濟放緩、市場動盪和政策制定能力遭到質疑，印度似乎真的就要接替中國成爲全球增長最快的大型經濟體。許多印度人的言論，讓人想起10年前印度人民黨(Bharatiya Janata party)上次執政期間盛行的“印度大放光芒”(India Shining)運動。他們從中國遭遇的困境中看到的不只是一線機遇。

Arun Jaitley, finance minister, said in an interview with the BBC: “An economy which can grow at 8 to 9 per cent like India certainly has viable shoulders to provide support to the global economy.” Adi Godrej, head of the eponymous consumer goods group, said it was a fine time for India to “shine”. In one of the strongest “move-over-China” remarks, Jayant Sinha, minister of state for finance, said Delhi was ready to “take the baton of global growth” from Beijing. He chirpily told an audience in Bihar, one of India’s poorest and most benighted states: “In coming days, India will leave China behind as far as growth and development matter.”

印度財長阿倫騠禕魲(Arun Jaitley)在接受BBC採訪時表示：“像印度這樣一個增速可達8%至9%的經濟體，當然擁有堅實的臂膀爲全球經濟提供支撐。”執掌同名消費品集團的億萬富翁阿迪戈德瑞吉(Adi Godrej)稱，現在正是印度“大放光芒”的好時機。在各種“超越中國”(move-over-China)言論中，最激烈的言辭之一出自財政國務部長賈揚特鬠哈(Jayant Sinha)，他說，新德里已經準備好從北京手中“接過全球增長的接力棒”。他興奮地告訴比哈爾邦（印度最窮、最落後的邦之一）的聽衆：“用不了多久，印度就將在增長和發展方面把中國甩在身後。”

On the face of it, there is room for optimism. As China seeks to wean itself off supercharged investment, its economy will inevitably slow. Officially, growth will glide down to 7 per cent this year. More likely, it could quickly head towards 5 per cent or below. India, meanwhile, is expected to expand at 7.7 per cent.

表面上看，印度有樂觀的理由。隨着中國逐步減少對過度投資的依賴，經濟放緩不可避免。根據官方的說法，中國經濟今年增速將下滑至7%。更有可能的是，這一速度會很快降至5%，或者更低。與此同時，印度經濟增速預計將達到7.7%。

Unlike many other emerging economies, including fellow Brics nations Brazil, Russia and South Africa, India has not been buoyed by exports of high-priced commodities. That means it will not be dragged down by the Chinese-induced commodities slump. Far from it. India, the world’s third-biggest petroleum importer , benefits greatly from weak oil prices, which improve its current account position and ease inflationary pressures. Nor is India a big exporter of manufactured goods. Even if global demand is weak, its economy is relatively insulated, with 57 per cent of gross domestic product coming from household consumption.

不同於許多其他新興經濟體（包括其他金磚國家，如巴西、俄羅斯和南非），印度經濟此前並未受益於高價大宗商品的出口。這也意味着它不會受到中國引發的大宗商品價格暴跌的拖累。不只如此。作爲世界第三大石油進口國，印度極大地獲益於油價的低迷，低油價改善了該國的經常賬戶狀況並緩解了通脹壓力。印度也並非工業製成品出口大國。即使全球需求疲軟，印度經濟也相對不受影響，家庭消費佔到國內生產總值(GDP)的57%。

Yet the idea that India is poised to become the global economy’s main event is flawed to say the least. If it induces complacency, it is positively dangerous. Hopes that India can replace China as the engine of global growth are wide of the mark. In nominal terms — the most appropriate measure when judging an economy’s global impact — India’s output is one-fifth that of China’s. India makes up a mere 2.5 per cent of global GDP against a hefty 13.5 per cent for China. If China grew at 5 per cent annually, it would add an Indian-sized economy to its already hefty output in less than four years. Saying India can match this is like saying a mouse can pull a tractor.

然而，印度即將在全球經濟中扮演重頭戲的說法至少是錯誤的。如果這種想法引發了自滿，那無疑是危險的。期待印度取代中國成爲全球增長引擎的想法是不切實際的。按名義價值計算（判斷一個經濟體的全球影響力的最恰當指標），印度的產出僅爲中國的五分之一。印度僅佔全球GDP的2.5%，而中國佔比高達13.5%。如果中國以每年5%的速度增長，就可以在不到4年時間裏爲本國已然巨大的產出增添一個印度規模大小的經濟體。說印度足可匹敵，就好比說一隻老鼠可以拉動一輛拖拉機。

On balance, people have read too much into China’s market spasms. Certainly, botched attempts to prop up the stock market and to move to a more flexible exchange rate have shaken confidence in the perceived infallibility of Chinese policymaking. Certainly, too, recent turmoil is symptomatic of a deeper malaise in the Chinese economy as it goes through the pain of shifting from investment-led to consumption-led growth. For China, the days of relatively easy catch-up have ended. Yet to write China off is badly misguided. It has the momentum of 30 years’ extraordinary expansion behind it.

總而言之，人們過度解讀了中國的市場波動。當然，提振股市的笨拙嘗試以及在此時實施更靈活的匯率機制動搖了人們對中國在政策制定方面無往而不勝的信心。當然，隨着中國經歷從投資驅動型向消費驅動型增長的痛苦轉型，近期的動盪也暴露出中國經濟更深層次的問題。對中國而言，相對容易趕超的日子已經結束。然而，輕視中國是大錯特錯。中國經歷了30年高速擴張，其積蓄的動能非同小可。

The idea that India will effortlessly float above Chinese growth levels is hopelessly smug. India’s statistics are as dubious as those of China. People forget that only last February, India changed the way it calculated GDP, adding more than 2 percentage points to its headline growth rate. On the old measure, India is still limping along at a far from impressive 5 per cent.

認爲印度將輕而易舉超越中國經濟增長水平的想法是無可救藥地自以爲是。印度的統計數據與中國的一樣可疑。人們也許已經忘記，就在去年2月，印度改變了統計GDP的方法，爲本國整體增長率添加了逾2個百分點。如果按照以往統計方法，印度仍在以並非多麼令人印象深刻的5%速度躑躅前行。

Inflated growth breeds a false sense of security. That may help explain why Mr Modi’s government has been so slow to pass much-trumpeted reforms. In this session of parliament, almost nothing has been done. The prime minister has been unable to enact a goods and services tax, which economists agree would make it easier to do business across a diverse set of states. Faced with opposition from farmers, he has all but abandoned land reform, which would have made it simpler to build factories, roads and power plants. Doing business in India continues to be anything but easy.

虛高的經濟增速會讓人滋生一種虛假的安全感。這可能有助於解釋，爲什麼莫迪政府遲遲未通過曾被大力鼓吹的改革措施。本次議會會期幾乎一事無成。莫迪未能開徵商品及服務稅，經濟學家們認爲這項稅收政策將使得在差異巨大的各邦之間做生意更加便利。在農民的反對之下，他幾乎放棄了土地改革，那些改革將使建設工廠、公路及電廠更加容易。在印度做生意仍然困難重重。

While the country is relatively isolated from the world economy, that is partly because it does not make much that others deem worth buying. For a country that wants to be the manufacturing hub to replace China, that seems more like a weakness than a strength.

雖然印度與世界經濟相對隔絕，但造成這種局面的部分原因是印度未能製造出多少其他國家認爲值得購買的產品。對於一個想要取代中國成爲世界製造業中心的國家來說，這看起來更像是弱點，而非優勢。

None of these problems will disappear because rather dubious statistics say India is growing faster than China. Indian officials would do well to stop gloating — and start enacting some meaningful change.

所有這些問題，不會因爲相當可疑的數據顯示印度經濟增速已超過中國而消失。印度官員最好別再志得意滿，而要開始推動通過一些切實的改革。