中國經濟放緩對外國公司意味着什麼?

By now, most Americans have heard that China's economy is slowing to some extent. And they've heard that China's slow-down may be a drag on U.S. growth. But American businesses in particular may not yet have asked themselves what a Chinese slow-down will mean to their companies individually. The answer might be surprising. Hint: It's not only about how your sales to China will be affected.

截至目前，大多數美國人都已經聽說中國經濟某種程度上正在放緩。他們也瞭解到，中國經濟放緩可能會拖累美國的經濟增長。但是，美國的企業卻可能還沒有問問自己：中國經濟減速對自己這家企業將意味着什麼？答案可能會讓人感到意外。給你個提示：受到影響的可不僅僅是貴公司在中國的銷售額。

Take regulation. Since China's government shapes the direction of its economy on both a macro and a micro level, governmental reaction to the slowdown will greatly influence every company doing business there. An analysis of what the Chinese government will do on the economic front should start with the assumption that it will act to minimize citizen discontent so as to keep its hold on power. The government is much more concerned with social harmony than with economic numbers.

以監管爲例。由於中國政府在宏觀和微觀層面規劃着本國經濟的走向，它對經濟放緩的反應會對在華經營的每一家公司產生巨大影響。若要分析中國政府在經濟方面將採取何種措施，首先應該假定，中國政府爲了政權的穩定會努力把公衆的不滿降到最低。中國政府對社會和諧的關注度要遠高於對經濟數據的關注。

The government is encouraging wage growth-including a greater-than-normal tolerance for union-style labor activism at foreign-owned factories-even though higher wages make China's factories less competitive. This policy is based on a calculation that those citizens happy with their higher wages will far outnumber those unhappy and unemployed because rising wages forced uncompetitive factories to close. American companies should no longer assume that the government will welcome low-wage manufacturing with open arms.

中國政府正在鼓勵提高工人工資──甚至對外資企業裏工會式的勞工行動也格外寬容，哪怕工資水平提高會降低中國工廠的競爭力。該政策基於這樣一種判斷，即因爲工資上漲而感到滿意的人，其數量要遠遠超過因工資不斷上漲迫使沒有競爭力的工廠關門而失去工作或感到不滿的人。美國企業不應再想當然地認爲，中國政府將繼續張開雙臂歡迎低工資的製造業企業。

The corollary to China's prioritization of its citizens' contentment is that China is going to get tougher on foreigners, just as it (and nearly every other country) has always done when times are tough. Everything foreign businesses do will be under heightened scrutiny, both from the government and from the public.

中國政府把提高民衆滿意度放在首位的必然後果是，中國對外國人將變得苛刻，這是中國（以及幾乎所有其他國家）在經濟艱難時期的一貫做法。外資企業做的每一件事都會受到來自政府和公衆的更多審視。

New immigration rules and visa requirements are one consequence of this protectionist attitude. A few months ago, a foreign male was caught on video assaulting a female Chinese citizen. China's Internet was quickly abuzz and within weeks, the government enacted new immigration laws and very publicly announced that it would be cracking down on illegal foreigners-a step that will hit any foreign company that has been posting employees to China without dotting every 'i' and crossing every 't' in the visa paperwork. If China's economy had been zooming along at 10% growth, this incident would have blown over within a few days with no lasting impact. Not anymore.

新的移民和簽證規定是這種保護主義態度造成的另一個後果。幾個月之前，一名外籍男子猥褻一名中國女性的視頻在中國的互聯網引起了軒然大波，幾周之內，政府頒佈了新的移民法律，並高調公開宣佈將打擊“三非”外國人──這一措施將會使那些外籍員工的來華簽證文件上存在疏漏的外國公司受到影響。如果中國經濟以每年10%左右的速度高歌猛進，這種事在幾天之內就會風平浪靜，不會產生任何長期的影響。不過今非昔比，這樣的日子不會再有了。

Chinese authorities also are throwing new roadblocks in the way of foreigners seeking to form businesses in China. Such higher standards are not uniformly applied. Beijing and local governments are ever more eager to distinguish between 'contributing' and 'non-contributing' foreigners. Thus, it has never been easier for well-funded, non-polluting foreign companies to secure approval to operate in China. Conversely, it has never been tougher for foreign companies that pollute, pay low wages, or have no plans to hire Chinese employees to get their foot in the door.

中國政府還在爲尋求在中國開辦業務的外國人設置新的障礙。這些更高的要求並非針對所有外國企業。中央和地方政府比以往更加熱衷於區分“有貢獻的外國人”和“沒有貢獻的外國人”。因此資金狀況良好、不會造成環境污染的外國公司從未像現在這樣容易獲准在中國從事經營。相反，那些污染環境、工資低或是不打算僱傭中國員工的外國公司，其進入中國的難度現在比以往任何時候都大。

China's slowdown also is changing Chinese company decisions regarding their interactions with foreign companies. Many Chinese companies are doing just fine. But exporters, particularly those that compete with companies from lower-wage countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh, are suffering greatly. China's very low-tech, very low-wage industries such as textiles, clothing, shoes and low-end electronics and toys are not doing well.

中國經濟減速也在改變中國企業與外國公司打交道時的決策。很多中國企業的經營狀況還行，但出口企業的日子很不好過，尤其是那些與來自越南、孟加拉國等勞動力成本較低的國家的企業競爭的出口企業。中國科技含量很低、勞動力成本很低的行業狀況不好，如紡織、服裝、鞋類、低端電子產品和玩具等。

Foreign companies that do business with Chinese companies in these industries must be on their guard. Hardly a week goes by without my law firm getting a call from a Western company experiencing problems with a Chinese company in one of these industries. Sometimes the Western company has paid for product and the company it paid no longer exists. Sometimes the company still exists but it needs 'more money' from the Western company to buy raw materials for the product it already promised to produce. Smaller Chinese companies are having a tough time securing necessary financing.

同上述行業的中資企業做生意的外國公司必須提高警惕。幾乎每週我所在的律所都會接到西方企業的電話，講述它們在同上述行業的中資企業打交道時遇到的種種問題。有時一家西方企業已經爲所訂購產品付了款，但收到貨款的中資企業卻不存在了；有時收到貨款的中資企業沒有消失，但它需要西方企業支付“更多款項”去採購其已經承諾生產的產品所需的原材料。眼下，中國中小企業難以獲得必要的資金。

Foreign managers need to understand what is happening in their own industries within China and act accordingly. This might involve something as simple as going to China and looking around your Chinese co-party's factory, warehouse or office to look for warning signs of a company in distress. Or it might involve taking out insurance to cover your China business or transaction. A number of Chinese manufacturers are owned by Taiwanese, Singaporean or Hong Kong companies and sometimes it is possible to secure guarantees from the foreign parent.

外國企業的管理人員需要了解其所處行業在中國國內的情況，並採取相應的行動。有時候，只需要一些很簡單的做法就能達到這一目的，比如到中國去參觀一下中方合作伙伴的工廠、倉庫或辦公室，看一看對方是否存在經營困難的跡象；或者可以考慮購買保險爲中國業務或相關交易提供保障。中國很多製造類企業由臺灣、新加坡或香港公司所有，有時還可以從這些企業的母公司獲得擔保。

The key is to be proactive because if you find yourself in a bad situation with a Chinese company going under, there usually is no remedy after the fact. Bankruptcy in China more often than not consists of a company shutting down in the middle of the night and its owner fleeing to another town.

最關鍵的一點是要防患於未然，因爲一旦你發現自己身處中方合作伙伴破產的糟糕狀況中，通常沒有什麼事後救濟渠道。在中國的大多數情況是，破產企業會在半夜關門，業主會逃到其他地方。

The key to weathering China's slow-down will be for foreign companies to go back to basics: think afresh about what a company contributes to China's economy and how that is likely to shape policy makers' opinions; focus on scrupulous regulatory compliance; and a renewed focus on due diligence at a company-to-company level. Above all, no Western company doing business in China should blithely assume that a slow-down won't affect it.

對於外國企業來說，平安度過中國經濟放緩時期的關鍵是做好一些最基本的事情：重新評估一家企業對中國經濟的貢獻點，以及這可能如何影響決策者的看法；注重嚴謹的監管合規要求；重新重視公司對公司層面的盡職調查。當然最重要的是，在中國開展業務的任何一家西方企業都不應該輕率地認爲，中國經濟放緩不會對自己構成影響。