中國經濟放緩是陣痛還是深層衰退的開始

HONG KONG — The short-term economic signals out of China have not been reassuring.

香港——中國的短期經濟信號讓人心存不安。

Policy makers bungled a stock market bailout over the summer. The central bank made a surprise devaluation of the currency. Growth slipped to its slowest pace since 2009.

政策制定者今年夏天在A股救市行動中表現拙劣。央行突然讓貨幣貶值。中國經濟增長下滑到了自2009年以來最低水平。

These developments rattled global markets and unnerved investors. But the bigger question is, what, if anything, has changed in the long-term outlook for China’s growth?

這些狀況在全球市場引發了躁動，令投資者感到不安。但更大的問題是，中國經濟增長的長期前景有變化嗎？如果有的話，是什麼？

Some experts on emerging markets look at China’s sputtering growth rate and see signs of deeper problems ahead. Others are undeterred, taking China’s current economic deceleration in stride. To them, it is a natural and necessary part of the switch to a more sustainable development path.

新興市場領域的一些專家研究了中國的增長率下滑，認爲有跡象表明將來會出現更深層的問題。另外一些人則態度從容，對中國目前的經濟減速不以爲意。他們認爲，要轉換到更加可持續發展的道路上，這是一個自然而必要的過程。

“The last couple of decades were all about ever-faster growth in everything in China, and the next couple of decades will be about slower growth rates in almost everything,” said Andy Rothman, a San Francisco-based strategist at Matthews Asia, one of the biggest investment firms in the United States dedicated to Asia.

“過去幾十年的主題是，中國的一切都在進行着前所未有的快速增長，而未來幾十年的主題是，幾乎一切增長都在放緩，”舊金山銘基亞洲(Matthews Asia)的投資策略師安迪·羅思曼(Andy Rothman)表示。銘基亞洲是美國最大的專注於亞洲市場的投資公司之一。

“We need to get comfortable with that,” he added. “The Communist Party is comfortable with that, but over here, we’re freaking out about it.”

“我們需要習慣這種情況，”他說。“共產黨就很泰然自若，而我們在這邊驚慌失措。”

Indeed, the once-torrid growth in industrial and manufacturing output has been cooling off for several years, falling under 7 percent. China’s leaders have just set an annual growth target of 6.5 percent in the next five-year plan, running through 2020. But after decades of debt-driven investment, economists are trying to size up whether China can shift to a new model in which consumer demand becomes the main engine of economic growth, as in most developed countries.

事實上，中國工業和製造業產出雖然曾經有過高速增長，但最近幾年已經降溫，滑落到了7%以下。中國領導人剛剛爲持續到2020年的下一個五年規劃設定了6.5%的年增長目標，但中國幾十年來都是用債務推動投資，經濟學家們正在嘗試估算中國是否可以轉型到一個新的模式，讓消費者需求成爲經濟增長的主要推動力，就像大多數發達國家一樣。

Bob Browne, the chief investment officer at Northern Trust in Chicago, describes the question of the Chinese consumer as “one of the fundamental long-term decisions an investor has to make about China.”

鮑勃·布朗(Bob Browne)是芝加哥北方信託(Northern Trust)的首席投資官，他說中國消費者的問題是“面對中國的投資者必須做出的一項根本性的長遠決策”。

“You can’t be agnostic or neutral on it: Is that transition to a services-based economy, as the middle class expands, going to continue inexorably — with bumps along the way — or not?”

“向服務型經濟轉型的過程，是會隨着中產階層的增多繼續前進，即使有顛簸也無法阻擋呢，還是不會？對於這個問題，你不能不在乎，也不能模棱兩可。”

Given the volatile short-term outlook, investors have been cashing out of Chinese-related stocks in recent months, part of a broader sell-off that has affected most emerging markets.

由於短期前景不穩定，近幾個月來，投資者紛紛套現中國概念股，而更加廣泛的拋售已經對大多數新興市場造成了衝擊。

Selling pressure appears to have stabilized in recent weeks, but as of late October, the one-year estimated flow out of emerging market stocks totaled nearly $70 billion, according to data from EPFR Global, a fund tracker, as cited by Citigroup. Of that global total, money flowing out of funds in China and Hong Kong was more than $30 billion.

最近幾周，賣壓似乎已經逐步穩定，但花旗集團(Citigroup)援引追蹤基金動向的EPFR Global提供的數據稱，到10月末，新興市場股市一年來流出的資金預計達到將近700億美元。其中，從中國和香港基金市場流出的資金超過了300億美元。

In the near term, investors are worried about China’s growth. In recent monthly surveys of fund managers conducted by Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch unit, a potential recession in China was cited as the biggest outlying risk to the global economy. In the bank’s October survey, 39 percent of respondents said China was the biggest such risk, though that was down from 54 percent in September.

短期內，投資者對中國的經濟增長感到擔心。美銀美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)最近對基金經理進行的月度調查顯示，中國的潛在衰退被列爲全球經濟最大的外部風險。該銀行10月的調查顯示，39%的被調查者表示，中國是最大的外部風險，儘管這一比率已經低於9月的54%。

Mr. Browne is among those who see China’s slowdown as a near-term risk, but his longer-term faith in its ability to make the transition to a consumption-led growth model is unchanged.

一些人將中國經濟的放緩視作短期威脅，布朗就是其中之一，但他長期以來對中國有能力向消費驅動型增長模式過渡的信心沒有改變。

“Clearly with China, it’s more of a top-down-driven economy, but so were Korea and Japan for much of their postwar development,” he said. “That transition from a manufacturing- and investment-dependent economy to a services and consumer-led economy is fairly consistent.”

“很明顯，中國更多的是一種自上而下驅動的經濟模式，但韓國和日本在戰後大部分時間裏也是如此，”他說。“從依靠製造及投資的經濟模式向服務及消費驅動模式的轉變是相當穩固的。”

China has a long way to go. Its state-directed economic model has overemphasized investment for years, and this has made growth increasingly unbalanced. The result is that private consumption today accounts for only around 38 percent of China’s gross domestic product. That is a sharp contrast to the industrialized nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, where consumption on average accounts for more than 60 percent of G.D.P.

中國還有很長的路要走。國家主導的經濟模式多年來過度強調投資，致使發展愈發不平衡。結果導致個人消費如今只佔GDP的38%。這與經濟合作與發展組織(Organization for Economic Cooperation andDevelopment)的工業化國家形成鮮明對比，這些國家的個人消費平均佔到GDP的60%多。

Addressing this imbalance poses pressing risks for China. Because of a reliance on state investment — often in wasteful projects or loss-making industries — the country accrued record levels of debt, which stands at nearly 300 percent of G.D.P.

應對這種不平衡的狀況給中國帶來了緊迫的風險。由於依賴國家投資——通常是浪費資金的工程或虧損企業——中國累積了創紀錄的債務，相當於GDP的300%。

That debt burden looks increasingly precarious as economic growth slows, raising the risk of deflation, or falling prices, which can lead companies to curtail investing and individuals to spend less. Deflation also makes debt relatively more expensive to repay — even at a time when revenue and profit at many businesses are crumpling.

隨着經濟的放緩，這種債務負擔似乎愈發危險，加劇了通貨緊縮或物價下跌的風險，這可能會導致公司削減投資，個人減少開支。通貨緊縮還致使債務相對增加——儘管與此同時很多公司的收入和利潤在驟減。

“Given the economy is slowing down and deflation is a major risk, if the government cannot push through necessary reforms, China may well follow the Japanese path of having a balance-sheet recession,” said Li-Gang Liu, the chief economist for greater China at the Australia and New Zealand Banking Corporation in Hong Kong. He was referring to a type of recession in which spending on debt repayment takes priority over making new purchases or investments.

“鑑於經濟發展放緩，通貨緊縮帶來重大風險，如果政府無法推動必要的改革，中國可能會步日本後塵，產生資產負債表衰退，”澳新銀行(Australia and New Zealand Banking Group)大中華區駐香港首席經濟師劉利剛說。在他所指的這種衰退中，償債在支出中將優先於新的購買或投資。

Mr. Liu forecasts that private consumption will rise to about 44 percent of G.D.P. in the next five years — a slow but significant shift because consumption is expected to outpace the economy’s general growth rate, replacing investment as the key engine.

劉利剛預測，未來五年，個人消費在GDP中所佔的比例將會達到44%，這是一個緩慢但重要的轉變，因爲消費將超越經濟的總體增長率，代替投資成爲關鍵引擎。

This forecast, like others that see China making the gradual shift to a consumption-led growth model, rests in part on changes underway in how ordinary citizens manage their finances.

還有人認爲中國正在逐步向消費主導的增長模式轉變，與他們一樣，這種預測部分基於普通公民管理資金的方式的變化。

On average, Chinese households save roughly 30 percent of their disposable income, the most of any major country. By comparison, the net saving rate is nearly 6 percent in the United States, 7 percent in Europe and just over 2 percent in Japan.

中國家庭平均會把大致30%的可支配收入存起來，這個比例比其他任何大國都高。相比之下，美國的淨儲蓄率差不多是6%，歐洲是7%，日本略高於2%。

But there are signs that a younger, urbanized generation — one that has not experienced the privation of the past — is taking a less conservative approach to spending than their parents or grandparents did.

但有跡象表明，城市化了的年輕一代沒經歷過以前的貧困，對花錢的態度也不像其父母或祖父母那麼保守。

That includes people like Yu Ying, 22, who dyes her hair blond and works as a hostess and greeter for corporate functions and other events, making as much as 6,000 renminbi, or about $940, a month.

22歲的於穎（音）便是這個羣體中的一員。把頭髮染成黃色的她給企業聚會及其他活動當服務員和迎賓員，每個月最多能掙6000元。

Asked about her saving and spending habits while on a recent shopping trip to Sanlitun, a popular Beijing neighborhood of cafes and shops, Ms. Yu said: “I don’t save. I can’t save any.”

前不久被問及存錢和花錢習慣時，於穎說：“我不存錢，一分錢都存不下。”當時，她正在三里屯購物。那裏是北京一個備受歡迎的地區，遍佈着咖啡館和店鋪。

Ms. Yu moved to Beijing from the northeastern province of Jilin three years ago, and says she spends about half of her income on cosmetics and clothes. She spends a further 1,800 renminbi a month on rent in an apartment that she shares with friends.

三年前，於穎從吉林來到北京。她說自己大約一半的收入花在了化妝品和衣服上。她和朋友合租了一套公寓，每月的房租又要花去1800元。

“I also spend money on going out with friends and having dinner with them,” she added.

“和朋友出去玩、吃飯也要花錢，”她接着說。

But even if younger Chinese are more free-spending, analysts say getting most Chinese to open their wallets more will require financial and other regulatory overhauls that Beijing has so far shied from undertaking. Among the priorities are easing or abolishing the nationwide system of household registration, or hukou.

但分析人士稱，雖然中國的年輕一代花錢更隨意，但讓大部分中國人增加消費需要進行金融和其他監管改革。不過迄今爲止，中央政府一直迴避相關改革。首當其衝的包括放寬或廢除全國性的戶口制度。

The system as it stands generally prevents new migrants from the countryside from gaining access to urban school placements, health care and other social services, which can be provided only in one’s official place of residence. Analysts say liberalizing this system would deliver a tremendous stimulus to labor mobility and also help reduce the need for migrants to save so much to meet health care and other costs.

現實情況是，戶口制度通常會妨礙來自鄉下的新一代民工入讀城裏的學校，享受醫療保健和其他社會服務。只有官方居住地才提供這些服務。分析人士稱，放開戶口制度會極大地刺激勞動力的流動性，還有助於降低農民工爲考慮醫療保健和其他花銷而存錢的需求。

“China needs to let people live where they can make the most money, which obviously they don’t do now,” said Derek M. Scissors, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.

“中國需要允許人們在賺錢最多的地方生活，他們目前顯然不能這樣，”華盛頓美國企業研究所(American Enterprise Institute)的駐所學者史劍道(Derek Scissors)說。

The risk of failing to execute on these and other reforms, he said, is falling into a phenomenon known as the middle-income trap, where growth and earnings reach a plateau before a country can become broadly wealthy and achieve developed-nation status.

他說，不實行這些和其他改革的風險是可能會陷入所謂的中等收入陷阱，即在國家實現總體富裕，變成發達國家之前，增長和收入出現停滯。

“That’s what I mean by stagnation: China doesn’t continue to climb the ladder of prosperity; it stalls,” he said.

“我說的停滯就是這個意思：中國不繼續變得更加繁榮，而是陷入停頓，”他說。

“Of course, the Chinese have the capacity to reinvigorate the economy,” he added. “But they’re not implementing those kinds of reforms, and you cannot be a heavily indebted, aging middle-income country and continue to do well.”

“當然，中國有能力重振經濟，”他接着說。“但他們不是在實行這類改革，你不可能既是一個嚴重負債、人口日漸老齡化的中等收入國家，又要繼續表現優秀。”

China’s leaders reject suggestions that the economy could stagnate, pledging to remain watchful against an even faster downturn by undertaking interest rate cuts, infrastructure spending and targeted loans to favored projects.

中國領導人否認經濟可能會停滯的說法，承諾通過降息、基礎設施開支和麪向扶持項目的定向貸款，來預防經濟更快下滑

“The fundamentals underpinning a stable Chinese economy have not changed,” Li Keqiang, the prime minister, told a gathering of the World Economic Forum in September in Dalian, a city in northeastern China.

“中國經濟的基本面沒有改變，”中國總理李克強9月在大連的世界經濟論壇上對與會者說。

“We will be fully capable to deal with the situation once signs indicate that the economy is sliding out of the reasonable range,” he added. “I’m not making an empty promise when I say that the Chinese economy will not head for a ‘hard landing.’”

“一旦出現滑出合理區間的跡象，我們將有足夠的能力來應對，”他接着說，“中國經濟不會出現‘硬着陸’，這不是空話。”