中國經濟放緩 澳洲礦業好運氣到頭

It has enjoyed 23 years of economic growth on the back of a China-inspired commodity boom. But Australia’s luck may be running out, as a cooling Chinese economy prompts a fall in prices of its key exports and job cuts across the resources sector.

背靠中國引發的大宗商品熱，澳大利亞享受了23年的經濟增長。但澳大利亞的好運氣可能快到頭了。中國經濟放緩，已導致澳大利亞關鍵出口商品價格下跌、資源行業裁員。

On Tuesday, BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance (BMA), the country’s biggest coal miner, became the latest company to react to softening demand for resources from China, axing 700 jobs – 7 per cent of the joint venture’s total workforce – and warning of further cost cuts.

週二，澳大利亞最大煤礦企業——必和必拓三菱聯合公司(BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance, BMA)成爲又一家對中國資源需求放緩做出反應的公司。該公司裁員700人，佔員工總數的7%，並警告將進一步削減成本。

“We want to ensure that BMA continues to operate viably, providing ongoing employment in the local region,” says Lucas Dow, BMA asset president.

BMA資產總裁盧卡斯•道(Lucas Dow)表示：“我們希望確保BMA繼續運營下去，爲當地繼續創造就業。”

Australia’s mining employment fell by 25,000 to 212,200 in the three months to the end of August, underlining the challenges facing the industry and an economy in transition that needs to generate growth from other sectors.

在截至今年8月底的3個月裏，澳大利亞礦業的就業人數減少2.5萬人，至21.22萬人，這突顯出該行業面臨的挑戰，而該國經濟也急需通過其它行業實現增長。

China’s appetite for iron ore and coal drove a decade-long mining boom in Australia with companies investing almost A$400bn on projects between 2003-2012.

中國對鐵礦石和煤炭的興趣推動了澳大利亞長達10年的礦業熱潮。2003年至2012年，該國企業在礦產項目上投資高達近4000億澳元。

During this period, mining’s share of national output doubled as Beijing’s share of resource exports jumped from 8 per cent in 2002-03 to 52 per cent in 2012-13.

期間，礦業佔該國產出的比例翻了一番，同時中國佔澳大利亞資源出口的比例從2002年至2003年的8%升至2012年至2013年的52%。

But a combination of a slower Chinese growth and a ramp up in global supply of iron ore and coal has caused commodity prices to drop. This week, iron ore fell below US$80 for the first time in five years, alarming investors and prompting a sell of in the Australian dollar and the local stock market.

然而，中國增速放緩以及全球鐵礦石和煤炭供應過剩，導致大宗商品價格下跌。本週，鐵礦石價格跌破80美元，爲5年來首次，這令投資者感到恐慌，並導致澳元匯率以及澳大利亞股市下挫。

“The downturn in iron ore prices has an inevitable flow on impact on mining services, construction investment and the wider economy,” says Chris Richardson, economist at Deloitte Access Economics.

德勤經濟(Deloitte Access Economics)經濟學家克里斯•理查森(Chris Richardson)表示：“鐵礦石價格下跌不可避免地影響到了礦業服務、建設投資以及更廣泛的經濟。”

The reddish brown ore – a key ingredient in steel – accounts for A$1 in every A$5 of Australia’s export income. Mr Richardson estimates a US$1 fall in iron ore price could cause national income to drop by A$700m and the annual tax take to be reduced by A$250m.

澳大利亞每5澳元的出口，就有1澳元來自鐵礦石。理查森估計，鐵礦石價格每下跌1美元，可能會導致澳大利亞國民收入減少7億澳元，年度稅收將減少2.5億澳元。

The impact will be felt hardest in Western Australia, where the Pilbara region produces most of the iron ore shipped abroad and the state government assumed prices would average $122 through 2014.

西澳大利亞地區受到的影響將最爲嚴重，在這裏，皮爾巴拉地區的鐵礦石產量佔澳大利亞海外輸出總量的大部分，而該州政府曾認爲，今年鐵礦石平均價格將達到122美元。

Last month, Moody’s downgraded Western Australia’s credit rating to Aa1, saying it faced a A$1bn hit to its budget with iron ore prices falling below A$90.

上月，穆迪(Moody’s)將西澳大利亞政府債務評級下調至Aa1，表示由於鐵礦石價格跌破90澳元，該地區預算將損失10億澳元。

The federal budget, which is in deficit to the tune of A$49bn, could also face further headwinds if commodity prices do not recover.

如果大宗商品價格不出現反彈，澳大利亞聯邦預算可能也會受到進一步影響，目前該國聯邦預算赤字高達490億澳元。

This week Roubini Global Economics predicted a slowdown in China and a tough federal budget could cut Australia’s growth to 2 per cent of gross domestic product in 2015, down from about 3 per cent. It says that this could prompt interest rate cuts and a 20 per cent slide in the value of the Australian dollar.

本週，魯比尼全球經濟研究機構(Roubini Global Economics)預測，中國經濟放緩以及嚴峻的聯邦預算，可能會令澳大利亞明年的國內生產總值(GDP)增速下滑至2%，低於目前的約3%。該機構稱，這可能會促使澳大利亞降息並導致澳元幣值下滑20%。

Most economists say such fears are overblown and point to a weakening dollar as a shock absorber that will aid the resources companies and other industries.

多數經濟學家表示，這些擔憂有些誇張，他們認爲美元走軟將緩解不利影響。美元下跌將有利於資源企業和其他行業。

“One of the key benefits of a flexible Australian dollar exchange rate is that it assists in cushioning the domestic economy from the shocks resulting from rapid shifts in external demand and income conditions,” says Richard Gibbs, chief economist at Macquarie.

麥格理(Macquarie)首席經濟學家理查德•吉布斯(Richard Gibbs)表示：“靈活的澳元匯率機制的一個重要好處，就在於它有助於減弱各種衝擊對澳大利亞國內經濟的影響，這些衝擊來自外部需求和收入情況的迅速變化。”

Companies that derive more than half their earnings overseas will benefit from higher earnings, while the country’s commodity exports will become more cost competitive, enabling resource companies to increase market share, he says.

他表示，超過半數收益來自海外的澳大利亞企業將獲益，同時澳大利亞的大宗商品出口將變得更具成本效率，資源企業得以擴大市場份額。

what the Australian economy needs is diversified growth in construction, tourism and agriculture to pick up. Joe Hockey, Australia’s treasurer, says that economic reforms are crucial to increasing competitiveness, but suggests that the medium to long term outlook for the country is bright.

澳大利亞經濟需要加快建築、旅遊和農業的多元化增長。澳大利亞財長喬•霍基((Joe Hockey)表示，經濟改革對於提高競爭力至關重要，但他表示，該國的中長期前景是光明的。