經濟放緩令中國領導人面臨艱難抉擇

China's manufacturing and property sectors slid further last month, leaving Chinese leaders with what economists said is a tough choice of accepting the economic slowdown under way or stimulating the economy at the risk of exacerbating longer-term problems.

上個月中國製造業和地產行業進一步下滑，這令中國領導人面臨經濟學家們所稱的“艱難抉擇”，要麼接受經濟正放緩的現實，要麼冒着長期問題惡化的風險採取刺激舉措。

More signs of the sharp slowdown under way came Tuesday with the release of more indicators. China's official manufacturing purchasing managers index, a measure of activity in the factory sector, staged a small rebound. The index edged up to 50.3, compared with February's 50.2, where any figure below 50 indicates contraction. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the figure should be close to 49.0, according to Louis Kuijs, an economist at RBS.

週二公佈的又一批數據顯示出經濟正大幅放緩的更多跡象。中國3月份官方製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)小幅反彈。該指數由2月份的50.2略升至50.3，指數位於50之下意味着製造業衰退。蘇格蘭皇家銀行(RBS)的經濟學家高路易(Louis Kuijs)稱，經季節性調整後，該指數應接近49.0。

The HSBC PMI, a private-sector index, fell to 48.0 in March from 48.5 in February. Overall, manufacturing--which accounts for almost half of China's economy--looks sluggish, Mr. Kuijs and other economists said.

以民營企業爲主要調查目標的匯豐3月份PMI由2月份的48.5降至48.0。高路易和其他經濟學家表示，總體上看，佔中國經濟總量近一半的製造業表現似乎疲軟。

'Domestic economic activity slowed across the board in early 2014,' said Mr. Kuijs. With excess capacity in some industries and future demand uncertain, many companies are reluctant to invest, he said.

高路易說，2014年初，中國國內經濟活動全面放緩。鑑於一些行業產能過剩和未來需求的不確定性，許多公司不願投資。

Real estate, a vital component of China's long boom, also shows signs of strain. Average new-home prices were up 10% from a year earlier in March, data provider China Real Estate Index System said Monday. But the pace marked the third-straight month of deceleration, and prices fell year-over-year in 12 of the 100 cities covered by CREIS, up from 10 cities recorded in February.

房地產行業是中國經濟長期繁榮的一個至關重要組成部分，該行業也出現乏力現象。中國房地產指數系統(China Real Estate Index System, 簡稱CREIS)的數據顯示，3月份新房均價同比上漲10%，但連續第三個月上漲速度下降。CREIS調查覆蓋的100個城市中有12個房價同比下跌，較2月份時的10個有所增加。

The weakening economy adds to concerns from economists that China is in danger of missing the government-set economic growth target for the first time in 16 years.

經濟疲軟令經濟學家們更加擔心，中國可能16年來首次出現實際經濟增速達不到政府設定目標的情況。

The government announced the target of 'about 7.5%' early last month. Only weeks later, as the gloomy statistics piled up, the State Council, the government's executive body, said it was prepared to tweak growth through limited measures--an easing of monetary policy, accelerated approval of infrastructure projects.

上個月初，中國政府宣佈今年經濟增長目標爲7.5%左右。但就在幾周後，隨着疲軟經濟數據的不斷公佈，國務院表示，準備通過有限措施（放鬆貨幣政策和加快基建項目審批）來刺激經濟增長。

At a meeting with provincial leaders last week, Premier Li Keqiang said downward pressure on the economy shouldn't be ignored, according to state news agency Xinhua.

據官方媒體新華社報道，國務院總理李克強上週在一個會議上對各省領導講，經濟的下行風險不容忽視。

'My biggest concern is that we're moving toward fiscal or monetary stimulus, and I think that's the wrong policy,' said Haibin Zhu, chief China economist at J.P. Morgan.

摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)中國首席經濟學家朱海斌說，他最擔心的是政府可能將出臺財政或者貨幣刺激措施，而他認爲這是錯誤的政策。

Last year, China eked out 7.7% growth, helped along by a midyear push from the government in the shape of looser monetary policy and faster approvals for infrastructure. In the slowing economy, some companies are struggling to repay debts. Last month a solar-panel manufacturer, a steelmaker and a small property developer--all industries afflicted by overcapacity--defaulted on bank loans and a bond payment, sparking fears of wider trouble in the financial system.

去年中國經濟勉強實現了7.7%的增速，這還要歸功於年中時政府放寬貨幣政策以及加快基建項目審批。由於經濟放緩，一些企業在償債方面遇到困難。上月一家太陽能電池板生產企業、一家鋼鐵企業和一家小型房地產開發商（都處於產能過剩行業）相繼出現貸款和債券違約，令外界擔憂中國金融體系將更大面積地出現問題。

Fresh stimulus, however, potentially could worsen a buildup of debt and overcapacity, said Mr. Zhu and other economists. China's total debt rose to 213% of GDP last year, from 140% in 2007, according to Standard & Poor's, a rating agency.

但是朱海斌和其他經濟學家認爲，新的刺激措施可能導致債務和產能過剩問題進一步惡化。評級機構標準普爾(Standard & Poor's)的數據顯示，2013年中國債務佔國內生產總值(GDP)的比例達到213%，遠高於2007年的140%。

Housing is a particular problem. Worried about falling prices, potential home buyers are staying on the sidelines as property developers introduce price cuts, sales agents said. Angry home buyers in cities like Changzhou and Hangzhou have recently trashed showrooms after developers introduced discounts of as much as 20% to stimulate sales of unsold units.

住房市場尤其成問題。房產中介說，目前開發商正在打折促銷，但是由於害怕房價下跌，潛在購房者紛紛採取觀望態度。最近，常州、杭州等地的業主怒砸售樓處，因爲開發商爲了賣掉庫存房，給出了高達20%的降幅。

'Signs are mounting that the housing market in a number of cities is not just cooling but actually cracking,' said Wei Yao, an economist at Société Générale.

法國興業銀行(Societe Generale)經濟學家姚煒說，越來越多的跡象顯示，許多城市的樓市不僅僅是在降溫，而是在崩盤。

The government could ease credit or reverse curbs it introduced on house purchases to cool the market when it was hot. But many of the smaller cities already show signs of being overbuilt. 'China is producing more residential property than it really needs,' said Mark Williams of Capital Economics, a research firm.

政府可以通過放鬆信貸或取消限購令的方式來緩解樓市壓力。但是許多小城市已經出現過度建設的跡象。研究公司凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)的威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)表示，中國建造的住房量已經超過了實際需求。

Many economists expect a cut in banks' reserve requirement ratio, which would free up more money for lending. The central bank can also ease financing conditions by keeping interbank rates low.

許多經濟學家預計中國央行將下調銀行存款準備金率，從而釋放出更多可用於放貸的資金。央行還可以通過把銀行間利率維持在低位的方式來放寬融資環境。