中國經濟增長放緩 消費熱點在哪裏
As anyone who reads these pages knows, China’s growth has slowed and its economy is, little by little, rebalancing away from investment and towards consumption.
看過相關報道的人都知道，中國經濟增長放緩，並且正在緩慢地進行再平衡——從依靠投資轉向依靠消費拉動經濟增長。
Yet many are also left scratching their heads by news that sales of a wide range of consumer products, from luxury cars to cheap local beer, are so sluggish.
然而許多人也對種類繁多的消費品銷售疲弱——從豪車到國產廉價啤酒——的新聞摸不着頭腦。
If consumption is so strong, why can’t we see it? The answer is simple: people are looking in the wrong places.
如果消費非常強勁，我們爲何看不到？答案很簡單：人們找錯了地方。
Both high-end and low-end retail are faring poorly.
高、低端零售都表現不佳。
But look at the middle tier, and the story could scarcely be more different.
但看看中端銷售，故事可能截然不同。
This is where the consumption boom is unfolding.
這正是消費熱潮正在上演的地方。
Start with the luxury segment.
先從奢侈品領域說起。
Its best days could well be over.
奢侈品的黃金時期很可能已經結束。
Luxury consumption is slowing, weighed down by a decelerating economy, the ongoing crackdown on corruption and the ‘commodification’ of luxury goods — that is, the idea that Chinese buyers no longer see them as so special or unique.
受經濟放緩、反腐運動持續開展和奢侈品“大衆商品化”的影響，奢侈品消費正在放緩——奢侈品“大衆商品化”是指中國買家不再認爲奢侈品非常特殊或獨特。
China’s luxury spending contracted for the very first time in 2014.
中國奢侈品支出在2014年首次出現萎縮。
This was just the tipping point.
這只是拐點。
In 2015, Swiss watch exports to Hong Kong, a bellwether of Chinese luxury buying, fell 23 per cent.
2015年，瑞士手錶對香港出口——中國人購買奢侈品情況的晴雨表——下降23%。
The sales of Rolls-Royce cars tumbled 54 per cent in China that same year.
同一年，勞斯萊斯汽車在華銷售暴跌54%。
And it was not just hard for foreign brands.
不只是外國品牌處境艱難。
China is unlikely to be able to produce successful local luxury brands in the foreseeable future.
在可預見的未來，中國不太可能創造出成功的本土奢侈品品牌。
Chinese consumers themselves simply do not associate made-in-China with luxury.
中國消費者自己不會將“中國製造”與奢侈品聯繫在一起。
This inertia of perception was foretold by the US experience.
美國的經歷揭示了這種思維慣性。
Despite being the world’s most powerful economy, the US has largely failed to produce top luxury brands such as Hermes or Cartier in Europe.
儘管是全球實力最強的經濟體，但美國基本上沒有創造出像歐洲愛馬仕(Hermes)或卡地亞(Cartier)那樣的頂級奢侈品牌。
Instead, it is affordable luxury brands such as Coach and Tiffany’s that have gained traction in the US.
實際上，蔻馳(Coach)和蒂芙尼(Tiffany)等讓普通人負擔得起的奢侈品品牌在美國很受歡迎。
At the low end of the market, the drivers are different but the outlook is equally bleak.
在低端市場，誘因有所不同，但前景同樣黯淡。
The race-to-the-bottom approach of cheap Chinese brands, a winning formula in the past, has run its course.
中國廉價品牌過去屢試不爽的“競相降價”策略已經不靈了。
Rising income levels have led consumers to focus more on questions of quality and health, for which they are now able and willing to pay.
收入水平不斷增長促使消費者更加註重品質和健康，他們現在有能力而且也願意爲此付費。
As a result, fast-moving consumer goods companies targeting blue-collar consumers are losing out.
面向藍領消費者的快速消費品公司因此經營慘淡。
Sales volumes of instant noodles and beer (which is often cheaper than mineral water in China) fell 12.5 per cent and 3.6 per cent last year, respectively.
去年方便麪和啤酒銷量分別下降12.5%和3.6%——啤酒在中國往往比礦泉水還便宜。
The ecommerce space is also experiencing a tectonic shift, from consumer-to-consumer platforms for cheap unbranded goods to business-to-consumer alternatives for branded quality products.
電子商務領域也在經歷“結構性”變化，人們從在消費者對消費者(C2C)平臺購買廉價的無品牌商品，轉向在企業對消費者(B2C)平臺購買優質品牌產品。
Transaction volumes on the latter rose from 25 per cent of the total ecommerce market in 2011 to 51 per cent in 2015.
後者交易額佔整個電商市場的份額從2011年的25%，升至2015年的51%。
Amid all this upheaval at the high and low end of the market, the sweet spot is right in the middle.
在高低端市場的這種風雲變幻當中，中檔產品市場如魚得水。
This value-for-money segment, which strives to balance quality and price, is already the fastest-growing consumer segment in China.
此類努力在質量和價格之間取得平衡、讓人們感覺物有所值的商品已經成爲中國增長最爲快速的消費領域。
As China’s middle class expands (McKinsey predicts it will increase from 174m households in 2012 to 271m by 2022), this middle retail segment will grow in lockstep with it.
隨着中國中產階級數量擴大——麥肯錫(McKinsey)預計到2022年，中國中產階級數量將從2012年的1.74億家庭增長至2.71億家庭——這種中檔零售部門將同步增長。
Consider a few examples of the consumer brands already profiting handsomely from this trend.
想想已經顯著受益於這種趨勢的幾個消費品牌吧。
Korean cosmetics brands with their “cheap chic”, offering design and marketing similar to European high-end brands but with affordable prices and more of an Asian style, are immensely popular in China, particularly among the younger generation.
韓國化妝品品牌帶來了“廉價時尚”，它們採用與歐洲高端品牌類似的設計和營銷，但價格更爲親民，而且更具亞洲風格，從而在中國大受歡迎，尤其是在較年輕一代人當中。
The front runner is Amorepacific, which owns brands including Innisfree, Laneige and Etude.
領跑者是旗下擁有悅詩風吟(Innisfree)、蘭芝(Laneige)和伊蒂之屋(Etude)等品牌的愛茉莉太平洋(AmorePacific)。
It has quadrupled its stock price since 2014 on the back of strong China sales.
在中國市場銷售強勁的支持下，愛茉莉太平洋的股價自2014年以來上漲了3倍。
Global fast fashion houses are also having a big run.
全球快時尚公司也在高歌猛進。
Uniqlo, the Japanese clothing company, delivered a gob-smacking 62 per cent annualised sales growth in China from 2013 to 2015.
從2013年至2015年，日本服裝公司優衣庫(Uniqlo)在中國市場的年化銷售增長率達到令人咋舌的62%。
Decathlon, a French sports supplies retailer, grew its store network in China from 55 in 2012 to 166 in 2015, capitalising on the value-for-money trend.
法國體育用品零售商迪卡儂(Decathlon)利用這種注重性價比的消費趨勢，將中國門店數量從2012年的55家增至2015年的166家。
China’s local brands are also charging ahead.
中國國內品牌也發展神速。
Green Tea and Granma’s Home, both with their roots in the city of Hangzhou, operate chain restaurants across China and have tripled their locations in three years.
總部均位於杭州的綠茶(Green Tea)和外婆家(Granma’s Home)在全國各地開設連鎖餐廳，門店數量在3年時間裏增長了兩倍。
They offer trendy casual dining experiences in central locations, coupled with seemingly unprofitable pricing for the dishes.
它們在市中心地段提供時尚休閒的就餐體驗，以及似乎無利可圖的餐品價格。
Their secret is volume, attracting customers who are willing to come at off-peak hours or wait in line, sometimes for up to an hour.
它們的祕訣在於規模，吸引願意在非高峯時段或者排隊等候（有時長達一個小時）就餐的消費者。
This translates into more sittings: they can achieve 6-8 table turns per day, roughly twice that of their peers.
這帶來了較高的入座率：兩家餐廳每天可以達到6至8次的翻檯率，幾乎是同行的兩倍。
Another successful case is Miniso, a high-quality dollar store chain that has been dubbed the “poor man’s Muji” (a premium Japanese equivalent).
另一個成功的例子是被稱爲“窮人的無印良品”的高品質低價連鎖店——名創優品(Miniso)。
Their retail pricing is only twice their costs, compared with the industry norm of three-times.
該公司的零售定價只是成本的兩倍，而行業標準是3倍。
Coupled with a carefully curated product portfolio in a modern store format, it became an instant hit.
再加上現代化店鋪模式裏的精心設計的產品組合，名創優品很快風靡一時。
Within two years of its inception, Miniso has opened more than 1,000 stores and made Rmb5bn ($750m) of annual sales.
在成立以來的兩年時間裏，名創優品開了1000多家門店，年收入達到50億元人民幣（合7.5億美元）。
Flashy Swiss watches are losing their grip on wealthy Chinese wrists.
奢華的瑞士手錶正逐漸失去對中國富人的強烈吸引力。
And ordinary Chinese are losing their taste for instant noodles.
中國普通民衆開始對方便麪失去胃口。
Consumption is instead converging on the middle, in terms of both product preference and customer base.
不管是從產品偏好還是從客戶基礎來說，消費都在向中端（中檔產品、中產階層）集中。
This is a good thing for the economy, a reflection of a more balanced growth model and a more equal distribution of wealth.
這對中國經濟是好事，反映出增長模式更加平衡、財富分配更加平等。
For consumer brands, both international and local, the challenge is to win the hearts of China’s rising middle class.
對國內外的消費品牌來說，挑戰在於如何贏得中國日益崛起的中產階級的心。
They are educated and well informed, and they want to spend money on quality products, so long as the price is fair.
他們受過良好教育而且見多識廣，他們希望購買優質產品，只要價格合理。
