中國增長放緩可能拖累香港樓市
The views it offers across Hong Kong's famous harbour are stunning but it is the price tag attached to the city's newest luxury apartment block that is creating the bigger stir.
從Opus公寓向外可以看到香港著名的海港，景色令人驚歎，但引起最大震撼的是這幢香港最新豪華公寓樓貼着的價籤。Each of the 12 Frank Gehry-designed apartments in the Opus development is expected to be priced by developer Swire Properties at more than HK$450m ($58m), a record even in a city where the average home price was the highest in the world last year.
Opus的12套公寓都出自弗蘭克•蓋裏(Frank Gehry)的設計。開發商太古地產(Swire Properties)對每套公寓的定價預計將超過4.5億港元（合5800萬美元），即便在去年平均房價位居全球之首的香港，這個價位仍然創下紀錄。At an estimated $9,000 per square foot, Opus aspires to be in the same league as ultra-luxury developments in London and Manhattan such as One Hyde Park and 15 Central Park West.
Opus公寓每平方英尺大約售價9000美元，有望加入倫敦和紐約超豪華公寓的陣營，比如倫敦的海德公園一號(One Hyde Park)和紐約的中央公園西路15樓盤(15 Central Park West)。
But these are inauspicious times to test the limits of Hong Kong's luxury property market which for several years has relied on demand from mainland Chinese. According to property agents there have been far fewer mainland Chinese buyers in Hong Kong since the start of the year.
不過，目前的時機對於檢驗香港豪華地產市場的極限來說不太有利，這個市場幾年來一直依仗的是中國內地富人的需求。房地產經紀人表示，今年年初以來，中國內地來港購房的買家比以往少多了。A worse-than-expected slowdown on the Chinese mainland, coupled with the fallout from the eurozone crisis, means that most analysts are predicting prices will start to fall in the second half of the year. The city's incoming chief executive has also vowed to increase the supply of mass-market housing, which is expected to push down prices after rising 80 per cent since 2009.
由於中國內地增長放緩程度超過預期，加上歐元區危機也帶來不良後果，所以大多數分析師都預測，房價將在今年下半年開始回落。香港即將上任的新特首也誓言增加大衆化市場住房的供應，人們期待此舉將把2009年以來漲幅達80%的房價降下來。"We hear a lot of people saying that only prices in the mass market will come down because of the supply issue. But you cannot decouple the luxury end from the rest of the market. How much a first-time buyer pays will affect a chain of three to four other [more upmarket] transactions," says Andrew Lawrence, head of Hong Kong property research at Barclays Capital.
巴克萊資本(Barclays Capital)香港房地產研究主管安德魯•勞倫斯(Andrew Lawrence)表示："我們聽到許多人在說，由於供應問題，只有大衆化市場的房價纔會下跌。但你無法將高端樓市和整個房地產市場的其他部分割裂開來。第一位買主會付多高的價格，將影響到其他一連串三四起（高端）房地產交易的價格。"Beijing's 2008 $4tn stimulus package unleashed the first big wave of mainland property investors looking for big-ticket items to park their assets.
中國政府在2008年推出了4萬億元人民幣刺激計劃，引發了內地房地產投資者購入高價房產來配置資產的第一波狂潮。The following year, 50 to 60 per cent of new luxury properties were bought by mainland Chinese investors, says Ricky Poon, executive director of residential sales at Colliers. In 2009, average prices for luxury apartments rose 45 per cent from 2008, compared with a 27 per cent rise in mass-market properties.
高力國際(Colliers)住宅銷售行政董事潘偉基(Ricky Poon)表示，在接下來的2009年，香港50%至60%新上市的豪華房產都被中國內地的投資客買走。2009年，豪華住宅的均價較2008年上漲45%，而大衆化市場均價漲幅爲27%。While the government provides no official figures, anecdotes abound of mainland billionaires paying cash for multiple units in new luxury apartment blocks near Kowloon Station – a popular area for those who shuttle frequently across the border.
儘管政府沒有提供官方數據，但坊間充斥着內地億萬富豪用現金購買九龍站(Kowloon Station)附近多套豪華住宅的傳聞。對於那些頻繁往返內地和香港之間的人而言，九龍站是個非常受歡迎的地段。But that has changed since the beginning of the year, when a combination of a credit crunch in the mainland and a sharp fall-off in demand for Chinese exports has seen their participation in the new-build luxury market plunge to about 30 per cent, says Mr Poon.
但潘偉基表示，今年年初以來，市場形勢就已發生變化。中國內地發生了信貸緊縮，而出口需求也大幅下滑，導致內地購買者在新建豪華住宅市場中所佔比例跌至30%左右。That is in line with a slowdown in other sectors highly dependent on the disposable income of China's wealthiest: revenue growth in Macau casinos has fallen to just 7 per cent in May compared with a 42 per cent full-year growth in 2011, while luxury spending in Hong Kong and China is also seeing slower growth.
與此相吻合的是，其他對中國內地最富有人羣可支配收入高度依賴的行業都出現了放緩：今年5月份，澳門賭場營收增幅已降至區區7%，而2011年全年增幅爲42%；同時，香港和中國內地在奢侈品上的支出也在放緩。Mainland buyers are also venturing further afield for bargains. A recent report found that purchases by non-local Chinese of luxury properties in New York had risen 88 per cent from 2010 and accounted for $9bn of sales in the year to March.
中國內地買家也去到更遠的地方購買房產。最近發佈的一份報告顯示，非當地華人購買的紐約豪華住宅較2010年上升88%，在截至今年3月的一年內其購買金額達90億美元。Mr Lawrence, among the most bearish analysts on Hong Kong property prices, fears there could be as much as a 30 per cent fall in prices across all sectors by 2013. But he estimates that prices in the luxury housing market will slip only 10-15 per cent at the most.
勞倫斯屬於最不看好香港房地產價格的分析師之一。他擔心，到2013年，整個房地產市場的價格將出現高達30%的下跌。但勞倫斯估計，豪宅市場最多隻會下跌10%至15%。Sales representatives of Swire Properties deny that the design of the Opus show flat – plenty of chandeliers and a kitchen featuring lots of silver – is meant to appeal to the flamboyant tastes of nouveau riche mainland Chinese buyers.
太古地產的銷售代表否認Opus公寓樣板間的設計是爲了迎合中國內地新貴喜歡浮華的品位。樣板間裝了許多枝形吊燈，廚房則處處銀光閃閃。But the fate of Opus – which has units for sale and for rent – is still likely to lie in the hands of investors from north of the border. "Here, you are talking about the ultra-luxury end of the market and only mainland Chinese billionaires who have done an IPO of their own companies are likely to pay for these," says Mr Lawrence.
不過這座既出售也出租的Opus公寓的命運可能仍掌握在中國內地投資者的手中。勞倫斯說："我們這裏說的是超豪華房地產市場，有可能購買的只有那些將自己的企業上市了的內地億萬富翁。"One agent says there is interest in Opus but that it is out of reach for some of his clients. "A mainland client of mine was bowled over by that view. After all, you just don't get a harbour view like that in mainland China. He would pay $38m for it, but no more, so he walked away."
一名經紀人表示，有客戶對Opus表示興趣，但有些沒有那個消費能力。"我的一名內地客戶對公寓外的景色一見傾心。畢竟，在內地找不到哪棟公寓有這樣好的灣景。他的最高出價是3800萬美元，一分都不能再加，最終失望離去。"
