中國樓市增長放緩 市場各方憂心忡忡

Wu Xuesong, a professor in this city on the Yangtze, says he doubled his money on an apartment he bought as an investment some years back and is ahead on a second.

常州是長江邊上的一座城市。吳雪松（音）是這座城市裏的一名教授，他說他作爲投資幾年前買下的一套公寓的價值已經翻了一番，現在第二套房也升值了。

Buy a third? Forget it.

還要買第三套嗎？算了吧。

Mr. Wu slides open a dining-room window and points to the dark shadow of a new apartment complex, where only a handful of lights are on. 'No one lives there,' he says. 'That shatters my confidence' in China's long-thriving real-estate market.

吳雪松打開了餐廳的一扇窗戶，用手指着一個黑黢黢的新建住宅小區，那裏只有幾盞燈亮着。“沒人住，”他說，“我的信心破滅了。”他不再相信中國的房地產市場會長盛不衰。

Economists have worried for years that China is setting itself up for a housing-market bust. In big international cities like Beijing and Shanghai, prices continue to rise. But evidence is mounting that in dozens of third- and fourth-tier Chinese cities rarely visited by foreigners, overbuilding is out of control and a major property-market slowdown is now under way.

Tim Franco for The Wall Street Journal圖片：中國小城的樓市寒冬數年來，經濟學家們一直擔心中國的房地產市場終將崩盤。在北京和上海這樣的國際化城市，房價還在繼續上漲。但在很少有外國人到訪的三四線城市，有越來越多的證據表明，過度建設已經失控，房地產市場增速已出現大幅放緩。

The 200 or so Chinese cities with populations ranging from 500,000 to several million account for 70% of the country's residential-property sales. In many of these cities, developers are slashing prices and offering freebies such as kitchen furnishings and parking spaces as they try to work through vast gluts of unsold property. Protests are breaking out among buyers angry that their investments are losing value.

在中國，人口數量在50萬到數百萬之間的城市的數量約有200個，這些城市的住房銷售量佔了全國住房銷售量的70%。在很多這樣的城市，開發商通過大幅降價、贈送廚房裝修或停車位等方式試圖消化大量的未售出存量房。一些購房者因爲自己的投資貶值還開始組織抗議。

Data in some of these smaller cities is scarce. But in 100 cities tracked by Nomura Holdings Inc., 42% of those classified as Tier 3 and Tier 4 saw housing prices decline in March from February. Home construction in such cities is racing well ahead of population growth, says Beijing research firm Gavekal Dragonomics, as developers continue to build new projects without buyers.

這樣一些規模較小的城市的相關數據很匱乏。但在野村控股(Nomura Holdings Inc.)追蹤的100個城市當中，從2月份到3月份，被歸類爲三四線的城市中有42%的城市房價下降。北京研究公司龍洲經訊(Gavekal Dragonomics)稱，在這些城市中，住房建設速度遠遠高於人口增長速度，開發商不斷開建新項目，但卻沒人來買。

A dramatic housing collapse such as the U.S. suffered a few years ago isn't thought likely here. Chinese families don't borrow as heavily for home buying as Americans, putting at least 30% down. China doesn't have sketchy mortgages like those that infected the U.S. market at its peak, nor home-equity loans that let owners finance shopping sprees on the value of their homes. Chinese financiers haven't put together arcane mortgage-backed securities such as those that blew up in the U.S.

人們認爲，中國不太可能像幾年前的美國一樣出現住房價格大幅下跌的情形。中國家庭不像美國家庭那樣，在買房的時候大量依靠貸款，而是至少要先付30%的首付。中國市場不像美國市場在高峯時期那樣充斥着低質量抵押貸款，也沒有房屋淨值貸款（房屋所有者以自己房屋的淨值爲抵押獲得這種貸款後就可以大舉購物）。中國的金融界人士也沒有炮製出複雜的抵押貸款支持證券，而這類證券在美國引發了金融危機。

Yet even with market strength holding up in the most prominent cities, the overall value of Chinese housing sold in the first two months of 2014 declined 5% from a year earlier, government statistics show. Private-sector data indicate the decline continued in March.

然而中國政府的統計數字顯示，雖然多數主要城市的房地產市場依然強勁，但2014年前兩個月中國的整體房屋銷售額較上年同期下降5%。私人部門機構發佈的數據顯示，中國3月份的房屋銷售額繼續下降。

Price drops might seem a normal market response to oversupply, but when it comes to housing, the phenomenon isn't benign. China increasingly depends on real estate to drive growth.

價格下跌看似是對供應過剩的一種正常市場反應，但對住房市場來說不是一個好現象。中國經濟增長對房地產的依賴越來越大。

The construction, sale and outfitting of apartments accounted for 23% of China's gross domestic product in 2013, Moody's Analytics calculates. That is up steeply from 10% in 2006 and is higher than American housing's share of GDP reached during the height of the U.S. housing boom in 2006, Moody's says.

根據Moody's Analytics的計算，2013年，中國公寓住宅的建築、銷售以及裝備所涉及的經濟活動佔當年國內生產總值(GDP)的比重達23%。穆迪(Moody's)稱，這一比例遠高於2006年的10%，也高於美國住房市場在2006年達到頂峯時所佔美國GDP的比重。

The housing troubles add to other headaches for the world's second-largest economy. They come at a time when debt in China is climbing as rapidly as it was in the U.S., Europe, Japan and South Korea before their economies cratered in years past. And China's growth, while still healthy by world standards, has slowed to its weakest since the Asia financial crisis of the late 1990s, amid less-robust demand both at home and abroad for Chinese goods.

除了住房市場，中國經濟目前還面臨其他領域的問題。中國當前的債務正在以美國、歐洲、日本和韓國經濟遭遇經濟危機前的速度上升。除此以外，雖然從世界標準來看中國經濟的增長情況依然健康，但在國內外對中國產品需求下降的背景下，中國經濟增速已降至上世紀九十年代末亞洲金融危機爆發以來的最低水平。

Chinese state television aired a series this month on difficulties faced by home buyers and property developers. An owner in Shenmu County, in the north, said she couldn't afford to pay the mortgage on her apartment but couldn't sell it, either, because so many others were for sale.

中國國家電視臺本月播出了一個系列講述購房者和房地產開發商所面臨困境的節目。 西省神木縣的一位房主稱，她無力償還抵押貸款，但房子也賣不出去，因爲市場上有很多房子在出售。

The finances of some cities and developers are being affected. China's local governments depend on land sales to developers for about 40% of their revenue. Now those sales are bringing in less cash.

一些城市和開發商的財務狀況正在受到影響。中國地方政府收入的40%左右來自於土地出讓款，但現在靠出售土地獲得的收入變少了。

After the city of Fenghua in eastern China cut the price of land, developer Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. -- which had incurred higher land costs -- found it tough to sell apartments and make payments on its debt, which the city website put at nearly $600 million. Municipal officials say they are trying to stave off a bankruptcy by the developer that could tarnish the city's reputation. Principals of the developer couldn't be reached for comment.

中國東部城市奉化下調了地價以後，之前一直承擔着高昂地價的地產商浙江興潤置業投資有限公司(Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co.)發現難以賣出房子、償付債務。奉化市網站公佈，該公司的欠款已經接近6億美元。奉化官員說，他們正想辦法避免興潤置業破產，以免傷及奉化市的聲譽。記者無法聯繫到興潤置業負責人就此置評。

As developers grow short of money, some are using apartments instead of cash to pay their bills to construction companies. Anne Stevenson-Yang, research director at J Capital Research in Beijing, who crisscrosses China checking out property developments, sums up the real-estate market in China's smaller cities 'an incredible house of cards.'

相關報道博客：有關中國樓市供應過剩的問與答博客：營口房地產市場冷過冬天博客：誰會點燃中國經濟火藥桶？由於開發商們手頭缺少資金，一些公司用樓房代替現金支付給建築公司。美奇金（北京）投資諮詢有限公司(J Capital Research)研究總監楊思安(Anne Stevenson-Yang)總結說，中國中小城市的房地產市場是極其不切實際的空中樓閣。她曾經多次往返中國各地，考察房地產的發展狀況。

Further weakness could mean trouble for construction companies and appliance and commodity producers. Furniture and appliance sales in China have been slowing along with the weaker pace of apartment sales. Also potentially affected are businesses that use real estate as collateral to get new loans; China's banks rely on property holdings as the main collateral securing loans.

若房地產市場進一步走軟，建築公司、家電企業、大宗商品廠商都可能有麻煩。隨着樓市銷售速度的下滑，中國的傢俱和家電銷量也一直在放慢。同樣可能受到影響的還有那些利用房地產當做抵押品來獲得新貸款的行業。中國的銀行業把房地產作爲貸款的重要抵押品。

One risk is that consumers who are accustomed to seeing steady gains in their homes' value pull back on spending. This is a danger because an unusually high percentage of Chinese household wealth is tied up in real estate -- about two-thirds, estimates economist Li Gan at Texas A&M University. Americans, at the peak of the U.S. housing boom, had only about half that much of their family wealth in real estate. The figure is high in China partly because of few appealing investment alternatives, with the domestic stock market performing poorly for years and interest on savings deposits at banks fixed at a low rate.

一個風險是，習慣於房產穩步升值的中國消費者會捂緊錢袋。這種狀況十分危險，因爲中國的家庭財富與房地產掛鉤的比例高得離譜，根據美國德克薩斯州農工大學(Texas A&M University)經濟學家甘犁的估計，房屋價值佔中國家庭財富的比例高達三分之二左右。相比之下，美國在樓市泡沫的巔峯時代，房屋價值佔美國家庭財富的比例也不過只有一半左右。中國比例如此之高的原因之一就是缺少其他有吸引力的投資項目，中國股市的低迷已經持續多年，銀行存款利率也被定在很低的水平。

Take a drive through China's third- and fourth-tier cities and these issues are all too visible. Many cities are ringed by row after row of empty apartment buildings that reach 20 stories into the sky. At night, they are dark save for blinking red lights on top to warn airplanes.

當你穿梭於中國三、四線城市時，上述問題就顯得越發明顯。許多城市裏都豎起成排成排的20層以上高樓大廈，然而裏面空無一人。每到夜間，這些樓房都漆黑一片，只有樓頂上的紅燈不停地閃爍，對過往飛機訴說着它們的存在。

Analysts have long taken note of Chinese 'ghost cities' -- sprawling new neighborhoods nearly devoid of inhabitants. These have sometimes been seen as anomalies. But over the past few years, building has proceeded at such a blistering pace that Nicole Wong, a real-estate analyst in Hong Kong for CLSA, figures the pace of construction in third- and fourth-tier cities needs to fall by half between 2013 and 2020 to get supply and demand somewhat back in balance.

分析師們注意中國的“鬼城”已經有很長時間了，“鬼城”中高樓接連拔地而起，但幾乎沒什麼人住進去。有時這些“鬼城”被視爲反常現象。然而，過去幾年中，樓市仍然以這種白熱化的速度突飛猛進。里昂證券（亞洲）(CLSA)駐香港地產分析師Nicole Wong指出，2013-2020年間，三線、四線城市的建房速度需要下降一半，才能使供求關係稍稍迴歸平衡狀態。

In Yingkou, a dusty city of 2.4 million in China's frigid northeast, the only sign of life in one complex of 20-story buildings is a small satellite dish in a first-story window. Zhou Mingqi says he is paid about $290 a month to live there, by owners of three units who want to make sure their properties aren't occupied by squatters or the fixtures stolen.

在中國東北部城市營口市的一個小區，20層樓高的大樓鱗次櫛比，然而這裏唯一有人居住的跡象就是某個一樓住戶窗口有個小型圓盤式衛星天線。周明起（音譯）說，有三戶業主每月付他290美元（約合人民1,800幣元）讓他住在這裏，他的僱主們希望確保房子不會被非法佔住，傢俱不會被偷走。這座寒冷、空氣也不怎麼好的城市裏居住着240萬人。

The project, called Expo Garden, began in 2010 and was supposed to be finished by 2013. As of last month, only eight of the planned 16 towers had been built. A recent visit found grounds with rutted roads, no sign of workers and not even any billboards advertising sales.

Tim Franco for The Wall Street Journal圖爲營口的一個房地產項目。這個樓房項目名叫“世博園”(Expo Garden)，動工於2010年，本應在2013年竣工。截至上個月，16棟計劃建成的高樓中只建起了八棟。最近記者走訪該小區時發現，道路上還有車轍痕跡，也沒有工人工作的跡象，甚至沒有廣告銷售的宣傳板。

City officials said the builder temporarily suspended construction because of winter. A representative of the developer, Xizang Zangye Group, said construction would resume in the spring. Other local developers said the city was trying to work out a deal to keep the project alive.

該市官員稱建築公司暫停施工是因進入了冬季停工期。小區開發商西藏藏業集團有限公司(Xizang Zangye Group)的一名代表稱工地將在春季恢復施工。當地其他開發商稱，該市正試圖達成一筆交易以確保該項目能運作下去。

In Yingkou, real estate's problems have become the city's as well. Its land-sales revenue has fallen by about 40% in the past three years.

營口市的房地產問題已成爲整個城市的問題。過去三年中該市的土地出讓收入已減少約40%。

China's private real-estate market dates only to the late 1990s, when the Communist Party started to privatize housing owned by state-owned companies. The market went into overdrive in 2009, as Beijing told banks to start lending heavily to spur growth and make sure China wasn't dragged down by the global financial crisis.

中國的私人房地產市場始自上世紀90年代末，當時中共開始對國有企業擁有的住房進行私有化改造。2009年爲確保中國免受全球經濟危機拖累，中國政府指示銀行大幅放貸刺激增長，致使私人房地產市場加速膨脹。

Around the same time, Beijing tightened restrictions on real-estate purchases in first- and second-tier cities to try to keep prices in those places from skyrocketing too high. (Four cities -- Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen -- are considered first tier, and roughly two dozen second tier.)

與此同時，爲防止一、二線城市房產價格漲幅過高，政府收緊了這些地區的購房政策。一線城市是北京、上海、廣州和深圳，二線城市有20多座。

The result of the twin policies was that money flowed heavily to medium-size and smaller cities. According to Citigroup, 12 provincial capitals are building an average of nearly 15 'new towns' each, meaning massive high-rise apartment projects on their outskirts.

上述兩項政策疊加在一起，使大量資金涌入中小型城市。據花旗集團(Citigroup Inc.)的資料，中國12個省會城市平均建設將近15座“新城”，即在其郊區佈設大規模高層住房項目。

One level below the provincial capitals, 133 cities that are the capitals of Chinese prefectures are building a total of 200 of these apartment complexes. Several dozen main county cities are doing the same.

省會城市往下一級，有133個區縣首府正建造總共200個住宅小區。還有幾十個主要的縣城也在做着同樣的事情。

Changzhou -- the place where Prof. Wu has made money on past real-estate buys but now is afraid of the market -- is a textile-exporting city of 3.6 million. When stimulus money started flowing in 2009 and 2010, the city decided on a makeover. Aiming to turn into a producer of advanced materials and high-tech goods, it started building a subway and blocked out a section for higher-end housing.

吳雪松購房所在的常州市是一個擁有約360萬戶籍人口的紡織業出口型城市。2009、2010年大量資金隨刺激政策流入常州，該市決定搞一番大改造，立志成爲尖端材料及高科技產品製造中心，並在這一目標的指引下修建地鐵，並劃出一片區域建造高端住房。

But Shanghai is only an hour away by bullet train. People with ambition and money often head to the megacity, crimping housing demand in Changzhou.

但從常州坐高鐵到上海只需要一個小時。那些有抱負、也有經濟條件的人經常會選擇上海這座大城市，從而抑制了常州的住房需求。

In the showroom of a cream-colored development of villas and high-rises in Changzhou, four young Ukrainian women in white fur stoles act as greeters. Ball gowns hang in the closets of the marble-filled model apartments. An outdoor swimming pool is decorated with statues of nymphs.

Tim Franco for The Wall Street Journal常州一個樓盤的路上能見到的行人不多，圖爲一位園丁。在常州的一個奶油色別墅和高層建築開發項目的樓盤展廳裏，有四位身披白色皮披肩的年輕烏克蘭女子擔任迎賓員。在這套到處使用大理石的樣板房裏，壁櫥中懸掛着舞會禮服。一個室外游泳池有多個女神雕像作爲裝飾。

It isn't enough to tempt many to buy. There are plenty of other opulent developments nearby.

可這仍不足以吸引許多買家。而就在這附近還有其他大量的豪華住宅項目。

'If all the developers here stop building right now, there's still enough apartments to last the local and migrant populations for another six to eight years,' says a discouraged sales agent.

一位有些泄氣的售樓員說，即便這裏所有的開發商馬上停止建設，也仍有足夠的公寓能滿足未來六至八年本地和外來人口的需求。

Faced with weak sales, the complex's developers publicly slashed apartment prices by 40% in late February. City housing authorities called them in to urge them to be more discreet, according to competitors, who say the city didn't want to get a reputation as a bad place to invest. Agile Property Holdings Ltd., a public company that is developing the project with a privately owned partner, declined to comment. City officials didn't respond to requests for comment.

面對低迷的銷售業績，該項目的開發商在2月末公開將房價下調了40%。這些開發商的競爭對手說，常州市相關部門約談了這些開發商，希望他們能更加謹慎，因爲常州不想承擔投資環境不佳的名聲。與一家非上市公司合作開發該項目的上市公司雅居樂地產控股有限公司(Agile Property Holdings Ltd., , 簡稱：雅居樂地產)未就此發表評論。常州市相關部門的官員也未迴應記者的置評請求。

The developers kept the discounts but stopped advertising them.

目前，該項目的開發商仍在打折，但已停止了有關減價促銷的廣告宣傳。

Other developers felt they had to respond. Nearby, Feilong Road cuts through construction sites filled with unfinished apartment towers that reach as tall as 30 stories. Billboards for one project promise discounts of about 20%. Across the street, another developer offers free parking and about $24,000 off the final price.

其他開發商也感到必須做出應對。在該項目附近，飛龍路兩旁的建築工地到處都是未完工的住宅樓，有的住宅樓達到30層高。一個樓盤承諾打折約20%的廣告牌隨處可見。街對面，另一家開發商承諾提供免費車位並在最終房價中再折讓約2.4萬美元（約合人民幣15萬元）。

At one project, sales manager Susan Yang says her bosses are considering 'stealth price cuts' -- rebates, of maybe 30% -- that would keep the development competitive without undercutting its high-end image.

一個住宅項目的銷售經理Susan Yang說，她的老闆正打算“隱性降價”，折扣幅度可能達到30%，這樣就可以在不破壞樓盤高端形象的同時保持競爭力。

The real-estate oversupply 'gives me a headache,' Ms. Yang says. 'People expect prices will fall.'

Susan Yang說，房地產供應過剩的問題讓她頭疼。她還說，大家都預計房價會下跌。

On March 21, protesters lined up in front of Phoenix Lake Gardens, a middle-class complex of 20-story apartment towers in northern Changzhou. They put up banners, trashed architectural models in the showroom and demanded refunds from the developer, Wharf (Holdings) Ltd. Wharf had cut prices by as much as 20% after these protesters bought their apartments, making their purchases suddenly worth less.

鳳凰湖墅(Phoenix Lake Gardens)是常州北部的一處樓盤，其20層的高層公寓樓針對的是中產階層。3月21日，業主聚集在這處樓盤前方。他們舉着標語，砸了售樓處的樓盤模型，並要求開發商九龍倉集團有限公司(Wharf (Holdings) Ltd., 簡稱：九龍倉集團)退款。這些業主購房之後，九龍倉集團把房價下調了20%，導致他們購買的房屋瞬間貶值。

David Wan, 25, said he had put $40,000 down on a two-bedroom apartment just a week before Wharf cut the price. 'The salesperson told me that prices wouldn't fall,' he said.

25歲的David Wan說，就在九龍倉降價的一週前，他首付40,000美元買了一套兩居室。他說，售樓人員當時告訴他樓盤不會跌價。

Another buyer said she and her husband sold their hometown residence 100 miles away and borrowed from relatives for a 40% down payment here, only to see the price for similar apartments later slashed.

另一位業主徐女士說，她和丈夫賣掉了100英里（約合160公里）外老家的房子並從親戚手中借了錢才付了40%的首付，現在卻只能看着類似戶型價格大跌。

The buyer, who would give only her surname, Xu, was especially angry that the developer brought in guards to block the protesters from the showroom. 'We are their earliest home buyers, and this is how they treat us?' she said.

徐女士尤其感到憤怒的是，開發商動用了保安，將抗議的業主擋在了售樓處外。徐女士說自己是他們最早的一批客戶，而這就是他們對待老業主的方式？

Wharf defends using the guards, who a spokesman said 'wouldn't touch the customers unless they behaved unreasonably.' The company said it cut prices to clear inventory, which it called 'normal market behavior.'

九龍倉集團爲動用保安之舉進行了辯護。該公司的一位發言人說，除非客戶出現不理智的行爲，否則公司不會去碰他們。九龍倉集團說，降價是爲了清理庫存。該公司稱這種做法是“正常的市場行爲”。

A few blocks away at another Wharf project, a police officer tried to explain to a demonstrator the new reality of housing in China.

在幾個街區外的另一處九龍倉樓盤，一位警官正試圖向一名抗議者解釋中國房地產業的新現實。

'You bought a private home,' the policeman told the irate protester. 'Prices will go up or down. It's just like investing in the stock market.'

這位警官對生氣的抗議者說：“你買了商品房，價格就會漲跌，這跟股市投資一樣。”