中國錄得資本流入 緩解各方擔憂

Capital flowed into China last month for the first time since an unexpected currency devaluation in August shook investor confidence in the economy, easing fears over financial stability following an unprecedented bout of outflows.

中國上月錄得自8月人民幣意外貶值、動搖投資者對中國經濟信心以來首次資本淨流入，緩解了人們對於一波空前的資本外流之後中國金融穩定的擔憂。

Capital has exited China at a record pace this year as an economic slowdown pushed Chinese gross domestic product growth to its slowest pace in six years. Outflows accelerated following the central bank’s unexpected move in August to let the renminbi weaken and the main stock index fell more than 40 per cent beginning in late June.

隨着經濟放緩把中國國內生產總值(GDP)增長壓低至六年最低位，今年中國遭遇創紀錄速度的資本外流。中國央行在8月採取讓人民幣走低的意外舉動、且主要股指自6月下旬起下滑逾40%後，資本外流有所提速。

“That call has become much less controversial recently compared with three months ago.”

“與三個月前相比，那個預測的爭議性已經小了很多。”

After its move in August to allow the renminbi room to weaken, the People’s Bank of China drew on its foreign exchange reserves to prevent the currency from weakening too sharply. After the PBoC spent as much as $200bn in August alone to support the currency, analysts worried that China’s forex reserves could be quickly exhausted if the central bank continued intervention at that pace.

在8月份採取行動讓人民幣有走低空間後，中國人民銀行(PBoC)動用其外匯儲備，阻止人民幣以過於劇烈的幅度貶值。在中國央行僅在8月就支出高達2000億美元支撐本幣後，分析師們擔心，如果中國央行按照這樣的速度繼續幹預，中國的外匯儲備可能會很快耗盡。

The latest data suggest that market sentiment toward the renminbi, which turned sharply bearish after the August move, has improved.

最新數據似乎表明，市場對人民幣的情緒（在中國央行8月採取行動後曾大幅轉向看跌）已有所好轉。

Analysts say the PBoC’s market intervention persuaded investors that the government would not permit a large fall in the currency. The central bank also reimposed some restrictions on transferring funds abroad to curb outflows.

分析師們表示，央行的市場干預已說服投資者相信，中國政府不會允許人民幣大幅下跌。央行還對向海外轉移資金重新實施了一些限制，以遏制外流。

Adding to improved sentiment, China’s stock market has returned to bull market territory from its lows of late August, and the bond market is also rising on the back of successive interest rate cuts by the PBoC.

在市場對人民幣情緒好轉的同時，中國股市已從8月下旬的低點反彈至牛市區間，債券市場也在中國央行一再降息的支撐下出現漲勢。

The International Monetary Fund staff recommended on Friday that the renminbi be added to join the elite basket of currencies used to value the fund’s own de facto currency, known as Special Drawing Rights.

國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)工作人員上週五建議，人民幣應當被納入決定特別提款權（SDR，該組織實際上的貨幣）估值的主要貨幣籃子。

“The continued stabilisation of the Chinese economy and the renminbi’s likely inclusion in the IMF’s SDR basket will help support a stable exchange rate and limit capital outflows through the rest of 2015,” wrote Shen Jianguang, China economist at Mizuho Securities.

“中國經濟繼續企穩以及人民幣很可能被納入IMF的特別提款權籃子，將在2015年剩餘時間幫助穩定匯率，限制資本外流，”瑞穗證券(Mizuho Securities)中國經濟學家沈建光寫道。