中國資本能否解亞洲新興市場之憂

By keeping interest rates on hold a while longer, the Federal Reserve has given emerging markets, braced for possible capital outflows with rising yields in the US, at least a temporary reprieve. And by not including China in its benchmark indices quite yet, MSCI has indirectly helped support other emerging markets, as fund managers underinvested in Chinese shares would have had to sell down other markets to adjust to new weightings. But there is not much other good news on the horizon.

通過在更長時間內保持利率不變，美聯儲(fed)至少給了新興市場暫時的喘息時間，後者正在準備應對美國收益率上升可能導致的資本外流。由於仍未將中國納入其基準指數，MSCI明晟間接幫助支撐了其他新興市場，因爲如果中國被納入MSCI新興市場指數的話，在中國股市投資不多的基金管理公司將不得不在其他市場中減持以適應新的權重結構。但除此之外眼下就沒有多少好消息了。

Today, emerging market central bankers have two contradictory concerns. They fear low rates and the temptation for their borrowers to take on too much debt when it is priced attractively. And they also fear the inevitable end of the low rates that will make the debt burden heavier.

如今，新興市場的央行官員們懷着兩種相互矛盾的擔憂。他們擔心低利率，以及在利率具有吸引力時借款人會忍不住過度負債。他們也擔心低利率必然會走到盡頭，從而加重債務負擔。

But that is only part of the reason why this particular rainy season the clouds are especially heavy in emerging Asia. Analysts are trying to understand the paradox that while today there seems to be plenty of liquidity in the world, the banks are not channelling that abundant capital to the real economy to support growth.

但這只是解釋這個雨季籠罩新興亞洲國家的陰雲爲何尤其濃重的部分原因。分析師們正試圖弄懂一個悖論：雖然當今世界似乎有很多的流動性，但銀行並未引導充裕的資本流入實體經濟以支持增長。

Part of the reason must be the fact that Asian corporates have borrowed a lot. Private debt in Asia alone amounted to 125 per cent of gross domestic product in the final quarter of 2014, says the BIS, and too much of it was in dollars.

一個必然的原因是，亞洲企業已經大量負債。國際清算銀行(BIS)稱，2014年最後一個季度，亞洲僅私人債務一項就達到了國內生產總值(GDP)的125%，而且其中美元債務太多。

Rate rises, whenever they materialise, will be especially damaging for this large group. The combination of financial and economic stress with more debt and fewer revenues to support borrowings is likely to prove challenging worldwide, but especially for companies in the region.

無論何時真正加息，都將給這一龐大羣體造成尤其嚴重的損失。金融及經濟壓力、債務增加以及收入減少從而影響償債，這些因素相疊加在世界任何地方都具有挑戰性，但對亞洲企業來說挑戰尤甚。

The macro situation is also sobering. For years, Asia grew on the back of exports to developed markets. It was a formula that worked first for Japan, and then for South Korea and Taiwan. But it does not seem to be working any longer. World trade has been almost flat for the past three years and been slower than (also anaemic) global GDP.

宏觀經濟形勢也不容樂觀。多年來，亞洲依靠向發達市場出口實現增長。這種模式首先在日本取得成功，然後是韓國和臺灣地區。但它似乎不再有效。過去三年，世界貿易增長几近持平，增速甚至低於同樣疲軟的全球GDP增長。

“This is something we haven’t seen in a generation,” notes David Lubin, an economist with Citigroup in London. Trade matters not only because it supports economic growth, but because it cements relations among countries and should reduce geopolitical tensions. It is therefore of double concern that this year the outlook has worsened.

花旗集團(Citigroup)駐倫敦的經濟學家戴維•盧賓(David Lubin)指出：“這是我們在一代人時間裏都未曾見到過的景象。”貿易之所以重要，不僅在於它支撐經濟增長，而且還因爲它能夠鞏固國家間的關係，可以減緩地緣政治緊張局勢。所以，今年貿易前景已經惡化這一點令人倍加擔心。

Today, emerging economies are losing market share in the developed world as the growth rate in the volume of exports from emerging countries is below the rate of growth of the volume of imports in the developed world. That is true both for commodity exporters (whose year-on-year volumes are turning negative) and manufacturing exporters, says Mr Lubin. Only a few nations, including China and Mexico, have been exceptions to this trend.

如今，由於新興市場國家出口總額的增長率低於發達國家進口總額的增長率，新興經濟體正失去在發達國家的市場份額。盧賓說，無論是大宗商品出口國（出口總額同比出現負增長），還是製造業出口國，情況都是如此。只有中國、墨西哥等少數國家例外。

So the developed world is not the catalyst for growth that it was for developing nations. Meanwhile, China, whose demand fuelled a rise in income for commodity producers such as Australia and Indonesia and manufacturers outside the mainland that were vital to its own supply chains, is both reducing its demand for goods from beyond its borders and taking market share from others. “China seems to be outcompeting emerging markets in an environment where the overall weakness of world trade growth leaves developing countries badly exposed,” Mr Lubin concludes.

因此，發達世界如今不是推動發展中國家增長的催化劑，儘管它過去是。與此同時，中國正一方面減少對海外商品的需求，一方面從別國手中奪取市場份額。在以前，中國的需求曾推動了澳大利亞、印尼等大宗商品生產國以及中國內地以外對其供應鏈至關重要的製造國的收入增長。盧賓總結說：“在世界貿易增長整體疲軟使發展中國家承受很大風險之際，中國似乎在與新興市場競爭中佔優。”

The most optimistic spin to put on all this is that China’s shift to becoming a more active exporter of capital and a vast offshore investor will inspire growth in a different paradigm. Both at the Boao Forum in March and in Shanghai at last weekend’s Lujiazui Forum, government officials such as Li Keping of CIC and a big shareholder in the new Silk Road Fund, testified to China’s determination to “play a bigger role in boosting the world economy” through the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the New Development Bank. “We have the highest savings rate in the world and we should leverage this advantage and export capital,” added Jin Qi, the chairwoman of that fund. Every day it seems a new fund is launched, such as one for central Europe from China Exim Bank.

對這一切所能做的最樂觀的解讀是：中國朝着成爲更加活躍的資本輸出國和對外投資大國的方向轉變，將以一種不同的範式推動世界經濟增長。在3月舉行的博鰲論壇，以及上週末上海陸家嘴論壇上，包括中投公司(CIC)總經理李克平在內，一些政府官員表明了中國要通過亞洲基礎設施投資銀行(AIIB)和新開發銀行(New Development Bank)，“在提振世界經濟方面發揮更大作用”的決心。中投公司是絲路基金(Silk Road Fund)的大股東。絲路基金董事長金琦補充說：“我們有世界最高的儲蓄率，我們應該利用這一優勢輸出資本。”似乎每天都有一隻新的基金成立，比如中國進出口銀行(China Exim Bank)專注歐洲中部地區的基金。

The world can use China’s capital — and, by the way, more of it will be in the Chinese currency. But whether even $4tn in mainland reserves is enough to lift the world out of its doldrums is uncertain.

世界可以利用中國的資本——而且，其中將會有更多的人民幣資本。但不確定的是，中國內地4萬億美元的外匯儲備是否足以讓世界走出經濟不景氣。