低價智能手機大行其道，蘋果能否穩贏中國市場？
Beyond these reports, Apple’s phones continue to be popular in China. The company saw explosive growth during the last quarter, but Xiaomi’s ascendance could become a headache for the iconic American brand, as it has for the biggest Android phone maker in the world, Samsung SRX . In 2014, Xiaomi’s market share in China jumped by 186% from the previous year, while Samsung’s declined by 22% during the same period.
儘管這些報告結論不同，但蘋果手機在中國仍很受歡迎。上季度，該公司實現了爆炸式增長。然而，小米的崛起已經給全球最大的安卓手機制造商三星帶來了麻煩。作爲美國的標誌性品牌，蘋果可能也會對此感到頭疼。2014年，小米在中國的市場份額同比增長了186%，三星的份額卻下降了22%。Xiaomi’s competitive advantage? Price.
小米的競爭優勢是什麼呢？價格。
While the average price of an iPhone 6 rose to $687 at the end of last year, the average price of Android phones fell to $254 – a significant gap. Xiaomi’s phones, which have a similar design aesthetic to Apple’s but runs on a modified version of the Android system, are even cheaper at an average price of $220 per phone.
到去年底，iPhone 6的平均售價已升至687美元，安卓手機的平均售價則降至254美元，二者差異巨大。小米手機採用了和蘋果類似的設計美學，使用變種安卓系統，平均售價更低至220美元。The fact that Chinese consumers have a significantly cheaper option could impact Apple sales if China’s economy remains sluggish and consumers become increasingly cost-conscious. In 2014, China’s economy slowed to 7.4%, the lowest level in decades, and is expected to slow down further in the next few years, according to the International Monetary Fund.
如果中國經濟增長依然乏力，消費者對支出成本將日益敏感，他們可以選擇更便宜的替代品，這可能影響蘋果的銷售業績。2014年，中國經濟增速降至7.4%，是幾十年來的最低點，國際貨幣基金組織預計今後幾年中國經濟將進一步放緩。This is especially significant because China is one of Apple’s key markets. Even though the company did notsell more phones in China than in the U.S. in 2014, as analysts initially speculated, its sales are reportedly on track to get there, partly due to its partnership with leading telecom provider China Mobile. In addition, the approximately 700 million smartphone users in China represent a vast market opportunity for Apple’s future growth.
這一點特別值得關注，因爲中國是蘋果的主要市場之一。儘管如分析師當初猜測的那樣，2014年iPhone在中國銷量並未超過美國，但據報道，蘋果與中國最大的電信運營商中國移動達成合作後，銷量增勢迅猛。此外，中國約有7億智能手機用戶，對蘋果未來增長意味着巨大的市場機遇。It’s a safe bet that Apple will continue to see hefty profits from the region, but fast growing competition from Xiaomi and other Chinese smartphone makers like Huawei could slow that progress and represents a threat to be taken seriously; and not just because of the impact in China either.
應該說蘋果仍將在中國獲利豐厚，但小米及華爲等其他中國智能手機廠商帶來的競爭威脅正在加劇，蘋果需要嚴陣以待；與此同時，衝擊也不僅限於中國市場。As Xiaomi expands its presence internationally, the popularity of its low-priced smartphones could impact Apple in other large markets, too, especially those where per capita income is low and a cheaper alternative to the iPhone is attractive.
隨着小米的國際化擴張，其低價智能手機的火爆人氣也可能在其他幾大市場對蘋果造成衝擊，特別是在那些人均收入低、iPhone的低價替代品頗具吸引力的市場。In India, for example, which is the fastest growing smartphone market, Apple only has a 2% market share because of a high price point, which makes it extremely vulnerable to competition. Xiaomi also has a modest market share of 4% so far. However, the important metric is that 64% of smartphones shipments during the fourth quarter were priced at less than $200, according to research firm Canalys. That’s a price range Xiaomi would find much easier to match than Apple.
以印度爲例，這是全球增長最快的智能手機市場，但蘋果的份額只有2%，原因是iPhone價格較高，在競爭中不堪一擊。到目前爲止，小米在印度的份額也只有4%。但Canalys公司指出，2014年第四季度，售價低於200美元的智能手機佔印度智能手機出貨量的64%。和蘋果相比，小米更容易填補這一價格空間。On the flip side, Apple could potentially benefit from regulatory hurdles that Xiaomi faces, such as in India where a court ruled that the Chinese company can’t sell phones that violate Swedish phone maker Ericsson’s patents until further hearings (although Xiaomi is temporarily back on Indian e-commerce site Flipkart). Another factor in Apple’s favor is that its status as a luxury brand in emerging markets, combined with its marketing expertise, could enable it to keep market share despite higher prices.
但另一方面，小米麪臨的監管障礙有可能讓蘋果受益。例如，印度一家法院裁定，進一步聆訊前，小米不得在印度銷售侵犯瑞典愛立信手機專利的產品（儘管小米的產品已暫時重返印度電子商務網站Flipkart）。另一個有利於蘋果的因素是，它在新興市場屬於奢侈品牌，再加上該公司的營銷能力，有可能讓蘋果在產品售價較高的情況下仍有能力維持市場份額。What all this means is that while Apple will certainly remain one of the dominant players in the global smartphone arena, emerging competition from aggressive low-cost technology companies like Xiaomi could still make a serious dent in Apple’s growth trajectory in some of its biggest markets.
總的來說，雖然蘋果必將繼續在全球智能手機領域處於主導地位，但在某些最主要的市場，小米等新生力量積極採用低成本技術，將明顯削弱蘋果的增長勢頭。Sanjay Sanghoee is a business commentator. He has worked at investment banks Lazard Freres and Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, as well as at hedge fund Ramius Capital. Sanghoee holds an MBA from Columbia Business School. He does not hold shares of Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi, or Huawei.
本文作者現爲商業評論員，曾在投行拉扎德和德利佳華任職，還曾爲RamiusCapital對衝基金效力，握有哥倫比亞商學院MBA學位。他本人並不持有蘋果、三星、小米和華爲的任何股份。（財富中文網）
