世界能源市場 中國拋售壓低銅價

Copper joined the rout that has pummelled oil and iron ore, dropping to its lowest level in five-and-a-half years yesterday after aggressive selling by Chinese speculators.

銅加入了繼石油和鐵礦石之後價格暴跌的行列。在中國投機商大舉拋售之後，昨日銅價跌至五年半以來的最低點。

The industrial metal, seen as a bellwether for global economic growth because of its extensive use in construction and electrical applications, fell as much as 6.6 per cent in London — its biggest one-day fall in almost six years — after futures dropped more than 7 per cent in Shanghai.

銅作爲一種工業金屬，廣泛應用於建築和電子設備，因而被視爲全球經濟增長的風向標。在上海期銅價格下跌逾7%之後，倫敦銅價的跌幅多達6.6%，創下近6年來的最大單日跌幅。

Copper for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange was down $173, or 3 per cent, at $5,600 a tonne, having hit $5,353, the lowest level since July 2009.

倫敦金屬交易所(LME) 3個月後交貨的期銅價格下跌173美元（跌幅爲3%），至5600美元/噸，並曾觸及5353美元/噸，這是自2009年7月以來的低點。

“There was massive selling overnight, which has prompted more selling on the LME,” said David Wilson, analyst at Citi.

花旗(Citi)分析師戴維•威爾遜(David Wilson)說，“大量隔夜賣盤促使倫敦金屬交易所出現更多拋售。”

Copper is the latest commodity to suffer in the wake of a collapse in the price of oil and worries about slowing global growth. It has been under pressure since the start of the year, sliding 12 per cent and breaking below $6,000 a tonne for the first time since 2009 this week.

油價的崩盤以及對全球增長放緩的擔憂，使銅價成爲最新的受害者。銅價自年初以來備受壓力，累計下跌12%，本週跌破6000美元/噸的水平，這是2009年以來的首次。

A combination of oil price jitters, negative sentiment toward commodities and lower physical demand in China ahead of the lunar new year have been behind the fall.

油價暴跌引發的緊張不安、對大宗商品的悲觀情緒以及中國春節之前實物需求下降，是本輪銅價下挫的原因。

“If you put all those things together . . . you get set up for this type of tumble,” said one trader. “People have seized on the bearish sentiment to give copper a push and see how far they could take it.”

“如果你把所有這些都放在一起……這種暴跌是難免的，”一名交易商稱。“有人抓住了看空情緒，推了銅價一把，看看他們可以把它壓低到什麼程度。”

Vivienne Lloyd, analyst at Macquarie, said Chinese funds had “won a battle” yesterday. “Most of the selling was in the first hour of trading. The funds were looking for the stop losses [orders to sell], found them and the price plunged through it.”

麥格理(Macquarie)分析師薇薇恩•勞埃德(Vivienne Lloyd)稱，中國資金昨日“贏得一個回合”。“大部分的拋售都發生在開盤後第一個小時。這些資金在尋找止損點（賣出委託單），發現了它們，導致價格猛跌。”

However, analysts said the sell-off had been overdone. Unlike crude oil, the copper market is not grappling with a supply glut and consumption in China, the world’s largest user of the metal, rose to a record last year.

然而，分析師表示，此輪拋售做得有些過頭。與原油不同，銅市場不存在供應過剩，而去年中國的銅使用量創下了紀錄。中國是世界上最大的銅消耗國。

Forecasters have been reducing expectations for a surplus this year because of production issues at large mines. Macquarie expects a refined surplus of just 98,800 tonnes.

由於大型銅礦的生產問題，預測機構已在降低對今年出現供應過剩的預期。麥格理預計僅有9.88萬噸的精銅剩餘。

“That’s a rounding error,” said Ms Lloyd. “It can be wiped out in a pen stroke by China’s State Reserves Bureau, and the SRB is a price-sensitive buyer.”

“這是可以忽略不計的，”勞埃德說。“中國國家物資儲備局(SRB)輕易就可以解決掉，而該局是一個對價格敏感的買家。”