當綠色能源遭遇低油價

Tumbling oil prices have long been seen as kryptonite for clean energy companies — and share prices of some of the world’s best known renewable power groups have slumped in the wake of the latest slide in crude.

油價暴跌一向被視爲清潔能源企業的剋星。近期原油價格大幅下滑，一些世界最知名的可再生能源集團的股價也隨之猛跌。

Shares in Denmark’s Vestas, the world’s largest wind turbine supplier, dived after the oil producers’ cartel Opec decided not to cut production in late November and prices are still down 11 per cent, noticeably below the broader market.

11月末石油輸出國組織（Opec，簡稱歐佩克）決定不減產後，丹麥維斯塔斯公司(Vestas)的股價應聲暴跌——目前跌幅仍達11%，明顯遜於整體股市表現。維斯塔斯是全球最大的風力渦輪發電機供應商。

The Chinese solar panel giant, Yingli Green Energy, and Tesla Motors, the US electric carmaker, have suffered even sharper share price falls. Crude’s surprise rise of $3 a barrel to $63.40 on Wednesday did little to halt the decline.

還有兩隻股票跌幅更大，中國太陽能電池板巨頭英利綠色能源(Yingli Green Energy)和美國電動汽車製造商特斯拉汽車(Tesla Motors)。即使週三原油價格意外回漲3美元，至63.4美元每桶，也未能遏制這兩家公司股票的跌勢。

Even before Opec’s move, lower oil prices appeared to be hitting hybrid cars in the US, where sales were down 11 per cent in November compared with the same month last year. Sales of some models of fuel-hungry sports utility vehicles, meanwhile, were as much as 91 per cent higher last month than a year ago.

在歐佩克做出不減產決定之前，油價下跌似乎就已經開始衝擊美國混合動力車市場。11月美國混合動力車銷量同比下降11%。同時，一些耗油量大的運動型多功能車(SUV)銷量同比上升了91%。

That trend may not be so pronounced in other industrialised countries where taxes make up a bigger component of pump prices than they do in the US. And some analysts say the market has overreacted when it comes to wind and solar companies.

這種趨勢在其他發達國家或許不那麼明顯，因爲與美國相比，這些國家的成品油零售價中稅項所佔的比例較大。一些分析人士稱，對於風能、太陽能相關企業，市場反應過度了。

However, there is still a large question about how a prolonged period of low crude prices might affect global investment in clean energy, which has climbed from $60bn in 2004 to about $251bn last year.

然而，一個更大的問題是，假如原油價格長期處於低位，全球範圍內的清潔能源投資會受到什麼影響？此類投資已經從2004年的600億美元攀升至2013年的2510億美元。

A large chunk of that investment has been powered by the growth of renewable energy subsidies and analysts say a sustained bout of cheap oil dents the arguments many governments make that consumers are better off funding renewables because fossil fuel prices are likely to rise while wind and solar prices fall.

可再生能源補貼的增長帶動了很大一部分清潔能源投資。分析人士表示，原油價格持續低企會削弱許多政府的以下論點，即投資發展可再生能源會讓消費者享受更多實惠，因爲化石能源價格可能會升高，而風能和太陽能價格會降低。

“Much Policy in recent years has been justified on the basis of scarce hydrocarbons and continually rising prices of said hydrocarbons,” said Ian Temperton of Climate Change Capital, a green investment specialist owned by Bunge, the global agribusiness.

“近年來許多政策的依據都是烴類能源的稀缺性，以及這類能源持續走高的價格趨勢，”跨國農業集團邦吉(Bunge)旗下綠色投資企業——氣候變化資本(Climate Change Capital)的伊恩•坦珀頓(Ian Temperton)說。

This argument may have to be adjusted even if the latest oil-price rout eases, he says, because if governments end up taking tougher action on global warming, such as the international climate deal to be sealed in Paris next year, it may dampen fossil fuel use.

坦珀頓表示，即使最近的油價崩盤有所好轉，這種論點或許也需要調整，因爲如果政府最終對全球變暖採取更大力度的行動，比如計劃明年在巴黎簽署的國際氣候協議，這些行動或許會抑制化石能源的使用。

“Policy makers will have to come to terms with the fact that if the plan is to stop using hydrocarbons before we run out of them, then they will go into oversupply and their price will fall in the long term,” said Mr Temperton.

“政策制定者必須接受以下事實，如果相關計劃是在我們逐漸用完烴類能源前停止使用此類能源，那麼烴類能源將供過於求，其價格在長期來看將下降，”坦珀頓說。

For the moment, it is still too early to be able to discern a meaningful impact on renewable investment trends from falling oil prices. But at first glance, history suggests the impact could be serious.

就目前來說，要辨明油價下跌對可再生能源投資是否有實質性影響，還爲時過早。但若是根據歷史情況初步判斷，這種影響可能會十分嚴重。

A jump in crude prices during the 1970s Arab oil embargo prompted what looked like a new age of green energy, not least in the US.

20世紀70年代阿拉伯國家石油禁運導致原油價格飆漲，使美國等國家迎來了綠色能源的新紀元。

Solar panels went up on the roof of the White House then occupied by President Jimmy Carter, while a raft of energy conservation measures were launched and insulation rates rose.

時任美國總統吉米•卡特(Jimmy Carter)在白宮屋頂安裝了太陽能電池板，同時政府推出了許多節能措施，絕熱率也上升了。

As oil prices came down, however, so did the White House solar panels, under President Ronald Reagan, along with investment in a nascent wind and solar industry. Sales of gas-guzzling vehicles, on the other hand, climbed.

然而，當油價降了下來，白宮屋頂的太陽能電池板也在總統羅納德•里根(Ronald Reagan)任內被拆除，對新興的風能和太陽能產業的投資也隨之下降。同時，高油耗汽車的銷量則提高了。

Today, however, a new driver of clean energy investment has emerged in the shape of global warming concerns. This was not the case last century, when worries centred on too heavy a reliance on foreign oil imports.

現在，全球對氣候變暖的擔憂成爲了帶動清潔能源投資的新動力。而在上世紀，情況並非如此，當時的憂慮主要集中在對外國原油進口的過分依賴上。

“Back then the prospect of climate change barely registered as a policy concern,” said Maria van der Hoeven, executive director of the International Energy Agency. “Today we know otherwise,” she said, adding that governments should take advantage of the latest oil price slump to encourage more low-carbon investment, by eliminating fossil fuel subsidies and putting a meaningful price on carbon.

“那時，氣候變化的前景幾乎未被納入政策制定的關注範疇，”國際能源署(International Energy Agency)總幹事瑪麗亞•範德胡芬(Maria van der Hoeven)稱，“如今我們知道情況不同了。”她補充道，各國政府應該利用這次油價下跌的機會，通過取消化石能源補貼以及制定合理碳稅，鼓勵增加對低碳產業的投資。

There are now more than 480 climate change laws in countries around the world, up from fewer than 40 in 1997, according to Globe International, a legislator body that annually assesses laws to combat global warming.

根據Globe International的數據，目前世界各國共有超過480部有關氣候變化的法律，而1997年不足40部。該機構是每年對抵禦全球變暖的法律進行評估的立法者團體。

That includes those subsidies for wind farms and solar plants that have pushed up green-energy use worldwide, especially in countries such as Germany, Europe’s largest economy, where renewables now account for as much as a quarter of the electricity used.

其中包含一些向風力發電廠和太陽能發電廠提供補貼的措施。正是這兩類發電廠推動了綠色能源在全球範圍的應用，特別是在歐洲最大經濟體德國，可再生能源如今爲德國供給1/4的電力。

That support — plus the fact that the use of oil-fired power plants has declined sharply in many countries — is one reason analysts say share market slides in some renewables companies may be overblown.

這種支持措施，再加上很多國家的燃油發電站急劇減少的情況，是分析師認爲一些可再生能源股已經跌得過多的一個原因。

“The conventional wisdom is that if oil prices go down, then it drags down power prices and makes wind and solar look more expensive,” said Credit Suisse analyst Mark Freshney. The correlation is a lot more complicated now, he says. “But I think there is still a perception in the market that the link exists.”

瑞信(Credit Suisse)分析師馬克•弗雷謝尼(Mark Freshney)稱：“傳統觀點認爲，如果油價下滑，便會拉低電價，使風能和太陽能顯得更貴。”他稱，這種關聯如今變得複雜得多。“不過，我覺得市場中仍然有人認爲存在這種關聯。”

Some parts of the clean energy industry, such as biofuels, may face a greater risk from cheap oil. But analysts say the broader investment outlook is uncertain.

清潔能源產業中的個別領域，比如生物能源，遭受低油價衝擊的風險可能更大。不過分析師稱，整體產業投資前景目前尚不明朗。

“We do not expect a lot of impact unless the oil price falls significantly further and stays at those lower levels,” says Angus McCrone of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, a research group.

“我們不認爲會產生很大影響，除非油價進一步急劇下跌並維持在較低水平，”彭博新能源財經(Bloomberg New Energy Finance)的分析師安格斯•麥克龍(Angus McCrone)稱。

Even in regions where oil prices are linked to some gas contracts, such as Europe, it is difficult to see a short term impact on renewables, he says.

麥克龍稱，即使在油價與天然氣合約存在關聯的地區，比如歐洲，也不太可能看到油價對可再生能源形成短期衝擊。

“Weaker gas prices in Europe could give utilities a reason to burn more gas and less coal,” says Mr McCrone. “But there is no reason at the moment to expect an impact on wind and solar investment,” he says, because investment decisions are driven largely by national incentive schemes.

“歐洲天然氣價下跌，可能給公共事業部門提供一個燃燒更多天然氣、減少使用煤炭的理由，”麥卡龍稱，“但是，目前沒有理由認爲這會對風能和太陽能投資造成衝擊。”他稱，這是因爲相關投資決定很大程度上是受國家激勵計劃的驅動。

“The chances of early policy changes are slim, since no country would base its strategy for the future power mix on short-term movements in the spot price of gas,” he said.

他稱：“初期發生政策變動的機率不大，因爲沒有國家會把未來能源構成戰略建立在天然氣現貨價格的短期波動上。”

A shift in the way electricity is generated since the days of the Arab oil embargo is also important, say some wind industry leaders.

風電行業的重量級人物稱，自阿拉伯石油禁運時代之後發電方式的轉變，也是一個重要因素。

“We don’t compete with oil,” said Steve Sawyer, secretary-general of the Global Wind Energy Council.

全球風能理事會(Global Wind Energy Council)祕書長史蒂夫•索耶(Steve Sawyer)表示：“我們不與石油競爭。”

“Twenty-five years ago there was a substantial amount of electricity generated by oil, but not now,” he said, adding the cost of wind power had declined so much that even with crude at $30 a barrel, wind farms could be competitive with the diesel generation still used in some developing countries and island states.

“25年前，石油發電量相當大，但現在不一樣，”索耶補充稱，風力發電的成本已經大爲降低，即便原油價格降到每桶30美元，風力發電廠仍然可以與柴油發電（一些發展中國家和島國仍然使用這種發電方式）競爭。