當下世界遭遇崛起的中國

Regarded as the world`s leading futurist, Naisbitt shed light on his upcoming book Megatrends China during a recent visit to Beijing. He gained an extensive following in China back in the 1980s with Megatrends, which sold 14 million copies around the world and topped the New York Times best-seller list for the best part of two years. Back then, I was a postgraduate student at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and read his book word by word. Although I didn`t fully understand it, I found it very encouraging for China in the early years of its opening-up and reform.
不久前，世界著名未來學家奈斯比特來京宣傳他的新書《中國大趨勢》。早在20世紀80年代，他的《大趨勢》在中國就大獲好評，全球發行量達到1400萬冊，高踞《紐約時報》暢銷書排行榜榜首兩年多。那時，我還是中國社會科學院的研究生，曾逐字逐句地翻閱他的書籍。儘管不能完全理解書中的含義，我仍然覺得那本書給改革開放初期的中國很大的鼓舞。

When I finally met Naisbitt and his wife Doris in Beijing, I found the 80-year-old still hale and hearty. We had a friendly chat that was free of age or cultural differences. The old man`s eyes sparkled with wisdom, earnestness and a childish smile.
多年後，當我終於有幸在北京見到奈斯比特和他夫人多麗絲，我發現他雖已是80歲高齡，卻依然身體健康、精神飽滿。我們的談話十分友好，完全沒有年齡或者文化導致的差異。老人的眼中閃爍着智慧的光芒，眼神堅定不移，時而還會露出孩子般燦爛的笑容。

He recalled that when he had met then-Chinese President Jiang Zemin some years ago, Naisbitt had felt Taiwan was a small place with few stories that were told well, while the Chinese mainland was a huge place with many stories not told well. Jiang asked him why he didn`t tell those stories himself and Naisbitt had replied he wasn`t ready. After three years` research, Naisbitt is about to finally publish that book.
多年前，奈斯比特見到當時的國家主席江澤民時曾說，他認爲臺灣是個沒什麼故事的小地方，但它講得很好。大陸有個許多故事可講的大地方，可惜它講得很糟。江澤民問奈斯比特道，你自己爲什麼不來講這些故事呢？奈斯比特當時的回答是他還沒有做好準備。辛苦調查3年後，奈斯比特的新書終於要與大家見面了。

He took out a pile of A4 paper and read out the contents of the book to me. After discussing the liberation of people`s thoughts in China, Naisbitt goes on to analyze the rise of its economy, society, culture, international relations and its efforts to establish a sustainable way of development.
他先是拿出一打A4紙，向我念起書中的部分內容。我們一起討論了中國人民的思想解放，奈斯比特繼續分析了中國經濟、社會、文化和國際關係的迅速發展，和它嘗試建立可持續發展所付出的努力。

Naisbitt has paid great attention to this country ever since his first trip here in 1967. More than 40 years` observation and studies have left him very upbeat about its prospects. Two decades ago, he had called China a country at dawn. In the 21st century, he points out that the dawn is turning into day and China is rising at an amazing speed.
其實，自從1967年首次踏入中國，奈斯比特就對這片土地產生了濃厚的興趣。40多年的觀察和學習讓他對自己的預言更具信心。20多年前，他眼中的中國正處於黎明前的拂曉。進入21世紀後，他指出拂曉已經進入白晝，中國正以驚人的速度發展壯大。

He sums up the development of China and the West from several aspects. While Western countries are standing still, for instance, China is realizing new goals; in many areas, Western countries are confining people`s thoughts, while China is liberating thoughts; the West is increasing indirect control, but China is decreasing economic control and supervision.
新書中，他從多個角度總結了中國和西方國家的發展。例如，在西方國家停滯不前時，中國實現了一個個新目標；在很多領域，西方國家開始限制人們的思想，而中國卻在解放思想；西方國家越來越加強間接控制的時候，中國卻在減少經濟管制和監督。

Western countries want to tell others that they solve problems, but China is pursuing more opportunities. Problem solvers focus on the past, opportunity seekers eye the future.
西方國家想要告訴世界它們解決問題，而中國卻在尋找更多的機遇。相比之下，解決問題的人更注重過去，而尋找機遇的人則時刻注視着將來。

Crucially, Naisbitt says that the West is little prepared for the fact it is on a downhill path while China is rising. Fear and jealousy lead Western countries to often attack China and try to keep it out of their inner circle.
更重要的，奈斯比特認爲西方國家還沒有準備好接受這樣一個事實--它們正在走下坡路，而中國卻在不斷崛起。恐懼和嫉妒讓西方國家不斷攻擊中國，試圖阻止中國進入它們的核心圈子。

The book ends with these words: Today, China has gained the most Olympic golds; tomorrow, it might become the biggest winner of Nobel Prizes.
新書以這樣一句話結尾：今天，中國獲得了最多的奧運金牌；明天，它可能成爲諾貝爾獎最大的贏家。

I believe his analysis is spot on and that the future will unfold just as Naisbitt predicts.
我相信他的分析是準確無誤的，我也相信未來將如奈斯比特所預料的那樣展開。