寒冬襲來 低油價迫美國油企開始減產

HOUSTON — With oil prices plunging at an ever-quickening rate, producers are beginning to slash the number of drilling rigs around the country.

休斯敦——隨着油價不斷加速暴跌，美國各地的石油生產商開始削減鑽機數量。

The national rig count had remained surprisingly resilient over recent months even as oil prices dropped by more than 50 percent since June, and it still tops the count of a year ago as domestic production continues to surge.

雖然自去年6月以來，油價跌幅超過50%，但美國鑽機的數量在最近幾個月裏保持了驚人的韌性，仍然高於一年前的數字，而美國石油產量也在繼續飆升。

But an announcement on Wednesday by Helmerich & Payne, the giant contract rig company, that it planned to idle up to 50 rigs over the next month sent shudders through the industry. And that came on top of 11 rigs that it has already mothballed, meaning that in just a few weeks, its shale drilling activity will be reduced by about 20 percent.

但本週三，這個行業泛起了寒意，因爲大型鑽機承包公司赫爾默裏奇和佩恩(Helmerich& Payne)宣佈，計劃於下個月關停最多達50臺鑽機。之前它已經封存了11部鑽機，這意味着，在短短几周內，其頁岩鑽探活動將減少20%。

“Low oil prices are increasingly impacting the U.S. land drilling market,” the company said in a presentation to a Goldman Sachs energy conference.

“低油價對美國陸上鑽井市場的影響越來越大，”在高盛(Goldman Sachs)的一個能源會議上，該公司在發言時表示。

The announcement was an early indication that the oil industry, with its history of booms and busts, was in the early stages of its latest downturn. Energy companies drop rigs when drilling costs outpace the price they think they will attract, leading to lower production and higher prices. But until the effects ripple through the market, consumers and the broader economy will most likely enjoy the benefits of low gasoline and heating oil prices for at least the next six months, energy experts say.

石油行業歷來榮衰交替，而該消息是一個早期跡象，表明該行業處於最新一輪衰退的初期階段。當鑽油成本超過能源公司預期的石油價格，他們就會關閉鑽機，降低產量，促使價格回升。但在這種影響波及整個市場之前，至少在未來半年內，消費者和其他經濟領域可以享受到低價汽油和燃料油的實惠，能源專家表示。

As for the industry, the signs of retraction are clear. The nation’s rig count, a barometer of oil exploration and production activity, fell by 26 in the week that ended Jan. 2, following a drop of 16 the week before, according to the Baker Hughes service company.

就這個行業而言，萎縮的跡象十分明顯。鑽機數量是石油勘探和生產活動的晴雨表，貝克休斯(Baker Hughes)服務公司的數據顯示，在截至1月2日的一週裏，美國的鑽機數量減少了26臺，之前一週減少了16臺。

The cuts could eventually be felt in areas where the local economy depends on oil. Each rig represents about 100 jobs, from roughneck field hands to maintenance workers, and the current rig count is down 85, or 5 percent, from a recent peak in late 2014.

那些經濟依賴石油的地區，最終可能會感覺到這種削減帶來的影響。每臺鑽機提供了大約100個工作崗位，包括從現場操作員到維修工的多個工種。相較於2014年年底的最近一次高峯期，目前的鑽機數量減少了85臺，降幅爲5%。

“Demand for rigs is falling off the cliff,” said Joseph Triepke, a financial analyst and managing director of Oilpro, an industry publishing company. “Exploration and production budgets are down anywhere from 30 to 40 percent and the cuts are happening faster than we thought.”

“鑽機需求出現了斷崖式的減少，”財務分析師、行業出版公司Oilpro的董事總經理約瑟夫·特里普克(Joseph Triepke)說。“無論哪裏，勘探與生產預算都削減了30%到40%，而且削減的速度快於我們的預期。”

Mr. Triepke predicted that over the next six months, the big three land drilling companies — Helmerich & Payne, Nabors Industries and Patterson-UTI Energy — are “likely to cut approximately 15,000 jobs out of the 50,000 people they currently employ.”

特里普克預測，在未來六個月內，三大陸上鑽井公司——赫爾默裏奇和佩恩、納伯斯工業公司(Nabors Industries)和帕特森-UTI能源公司(Patterson-UTI Energy)——“可能削減約1.5萬個工作崗位，他們目前僱傭了5萬多人。”

Already, day rates that oil companies are willing to pay for rigs have dropped 10 percent, Helmerich & Payne said. That is a sign, analysts said, that producers are trying to squeeze costs before they cut revenue-producing output required to pay dividends and the interest on their debts.

目前，石油公司願意支付的鑽機的日費率已下跌了10%，赫爾默裏奇和佩恩公司說。分析師表示，這是一個跡象，表明石油生產商正試圖壓低成本，然後他們可能就會削減產量了，這些產量帶來了營收，需要爲之支付股息和債務利息。

Even with the reductions, though, large-scale layoffs across the industry are not expected, at least not immediately. Producers contract their rigs for as long as three to four years, and many companies have hedges that lock in higher prices than the going market rates. In addition, producers often need to drill simply to retain their leases or keep their revenue up.

但是，即便是出現了這樣的削減，整個行業可能也不會進行大規模裁員，至少不會立即進行。生產商的鑽機使用合同期爲三到四年，很多公司都採用對衝手段，鎖定了比當下市場價格更高的價格。此外，生產商鑽油往往只不過是爲了保住租約，或者保持營收在一定水平。

Nationwide, the oil industry employs about a million people, including extraction, pipeline construction and refining, and the boom has added about 150,000 industry jobs over the last three years, according to Citi Research.

從全國範圍來看，石油業僱用了大約一百萬人，其中包括開採、管道建設、煉油崗位，在過去三年的繁榮期裏，就業崗位增加了約15萬個，花旗研究(Citi Research)的資料顯示。

Industry executives say companies are reluctant to let highly skilled workers go, especially when oil prices are likely to rebound in the next couple of years as global energy demand rises. But rig and fracking crews will inevitably be let go first, they said, since those workers can easily be rehired or replaced when drilling rebounds.

業內高管表示，公司不願裁減技能嫺熟的工人，尤其是油價有可能在未來幾年隨着全球能源需求的回暖而反彈。但是，鑽機和水力壓裂工作人員首先被裁是不可避免的，他們說，因爲鑽井活動出現反彈時，很容易就能僱傭到這類工人。

Domestic oil production has increased by more than a million barrels a day in each of the last three years. But executives say they believe production may begin to slow near the end of the year as the drilling of new wells declines.

在過去三年中，美國國內石油產量每天增加逾一百萬桶。但高管們表示，隨着新油井鑽探活動的減少，產量可能會在接近年底的時候開始降低。

On Wednesday, the global Brent benchmark dropped below $50 a barrel for the first time since May 2009, before settling around $51. The American benchmark rose slightly, to around $48.

上週三，國際基準布倫特原油價格自2009年5月以來第一次跌破每桶50美元，之後在約51美元的價格站穩。美國基準小幅上漲至每桶約48美元。

But producers in some American fields are receiving far less than that. Because of a shortage of pipelines and the distance to major markets, North Dakota’s Bakken shale producers this month so far are selling their crude for as little as $34 a barrel.

但美國一些生產商正在以遠低於市場的價格出售石油。北達科他州的巴肯頁岩生產商由於缺乏管道，和主要市場相距遙遠，本月到目前爲止，他們出售原油的價格低至每桶34美元。

That is why oil executives say the state that rapidly emerged as the nation’s second-biggest producer after Texas could suffer the biggest reversal in investment and output in the coming months.

這就是爲什麼石油公司高管說，在未來數個月，北達科他州可能會在投資和產出上出現最大逆轉的原因；之前，該州迅速成爲了僅次於德州的全國第二大石油出產州。

“Drilling in North Dakota is very expensive and the costs are extremely high,” noted Chris Faulkner, chief executive of Breitling Energy, an oil and gas explorer that left North Dakota a year ago to concentrate operations on South Texas. “If you are not in the middle of the sweet spot in the Bakken there is no way you are now going to risk 10 or 11 million dollars on a well.”

“在北達科他州鑽油非常昂貴，成本極高，”石油和天然氣開採公司Breitling Energy的首席執行官克里斯·福克納(Chris Faulkner)說。一年前，該公司撤離北達科他州，專心在南德克薩斯開展業務。“現在來說，如果你不是站在富含石油的貝肯岩層的中心點上，就絕不能拿1000或1100萬美元在一口油井上冒險。”