主要能源消費者對油價持觀望態度

Airlines, trucking companies and other big energy consumers are betting on further oil price falls, with many reluctant to lock in at current levels amid fears prices could plunge if the global economy weakens further.

航空公司、貨車運輸公司及其他能源消費大戶目前預測石油價格會進一步下降。鑑於市場擔憂如果全球經濟進一步放緩，油價可能會劇降，因而很多能源消費者都不願意在目前的油價水平買進。

Consumers are largely on the sidelines of the oil market in spite of a 30 per cent drop in price, from $125 in March to $90 now, commodities bankers said. The price of Brent crude hit an 18-month low last week.

大宗商品銀行家指出，儘管油價已經從3月份的每桶125美元下降到了現在的90美元，降幅達到30%，但石油市場大部分消費者仍然持觀望態度。上週，布倫特原油價格已經降到了18個月以來的最低點。

Oil consumers fear the current slide in prices–largely due to slower economic growth in China, the main engine of oil demand, and the eurozone sovereign debt crisis–is only the beginning of a major sell-off. Saudi Arabia has this year boosted production to a 30-year high, further subduing prices.

石油消費者擔心，目前主要由於石油消費大國中國經濟增速放緩、歐元區主權債務危機導致的油價下跌只是一次油價大幅"跳水"的開端。今年沙特的石油產量已經增加到了30年來的新高，進一步壓低了油價。

"If the global economy continues to deteriorate, I will not be surprised if we see more downward pressure on oil prices," Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency, the oil watchdog, told the Financial Times.

國際能源署(IEA)首席經濟學家比羅爾•畢洛(Fatih Birol)告訴英國《金融時報》："如果全球經濟繼續惡化，那麼油價下行的壓力增大也是意料之中的事。"

This wait-and-see approach mimics the behaviour of big consumers in 2008 at the start of the financial crisis, as prices plunged from a record high of nearly $150 to a low of $45. It could yet backfire if oil prices rise on the back of US and EU sanctions on Iran or if Saudi cuts production. "So far we have seen light hedging activity," said a New York-based commodities banker. "We expect some consumer buying if we [oil prices] go down another $10."

目前的觀望態度與2008年金融危機伊始主要石油消費主體的表現如出一轍，當時油價從每桶接近150美元的歷史高位下跌到45美元的低點。然而，一旦美國和歐盟對伊朗的制裁或者沙特減產導致油價上漲，就會事與願違。紐約一位大宗商品銀行家表示，"目前爲止，對衝活動還不明顯，如果油價再降10美元，我們預計消費者就會適當買入。"

Companies keep hedging plans close to their chests, but anecdotal evidence confirms bankers' views. Southwest Airlines, the US's largest low-cost carrier, told investors this year that its hedge protection for the second quarter was "minimal".

企業紛紛制定了對衝計劃，但坊間證據證實了銀行家們的觀點。美國最大的低成本航空公司西南航空公司(Southwest Airlines)告訴投資者，其第二季度的套期保值操作"極少"。

Brent crude fell $1.03 to $89.93 in afternoon trading yesterday.

昨日下午交易中，布倫特原油價格下跌1.03美元，跌至每桶89.93美元。