未來世界上油價將由市場說了算
When the Saudis, the leaders of Opec, decided at the cartel’s recent meeting in Vienna to maintain their oil production levels, it sent a strong message to the world: the market, not Opec, should decide oil prices. As a result oil prices dropped, falling below $60 per barrel this week.
This is a big change for the world’s largest oil exporter, which has in the past attempted to manage the global oil markets by altering production levels. The kingdom in essence decided to pursue a policy that not only preserves its market share in the long term but also heralds the coming end of Opec as a united organisation that still has a collective say in export decisions. While the decision was unpopular with most oil-exporting countries and large international energy companies, there are several reasons for Saudi Arabia to take this approach.
對這個全球最大的石油出口國來說，這是一個重大的改變——沙特過去曾試圖通過調整產量水平來管理全球石油市場。本質上，沙特決定實施的政策不僅會在長期內保住其市場份額，還預示着歐佩克這個組織將變得不那麼團結，雖然它的石油出口決定仍是由成員國集體做出的。儘管該決定不受大多數石油出口國和大型國際能源公司的歡迎，但沙特有多個理由這麼做。First, the Saudi leadership has long recognised the strategic importance of spare production capacity, so it has spent at least $10bn in the past decade to maintain 2m barrels per day of capacity that can be called upon at short notice. No other country has had the political will and foresight to do this, and it provides the Saudis with the means to go it alone against the will of the majority of oil producers, led by Russia, Iran and Venezuela.
首先，沙特領導人早就認識到空閒產能的戰略意義，因此該國在過去十年花費了至少100億美元來維持隨時可調用的200萬桶/日的產能。其他所有國家缺乏這麼做的政治意願和遠見，這讓沙特有能力獨力對抗以俄羅斯、伊朗和委內瑞拉爲首的大多數產油國的意願。
This decision will have big political and economic effects on some of the kingdom’s fiercest adversaries. In short, significantly lower prices over the medium to long term will directly neutralise what Saudi Arabia perceives as the destructive geopolitical actions of these countries in the Middle East.
該決定將對沙特的一些最兇狠的敵手產生巨大的政治經濟影響。簡言之，油價在中長期內大幅下跌，將直接瓦解沙特眼中這些國家在中東地區展開的破壞性地緣政治行動。From an internal Saudi perspective, lower oil prices are entirely manageable. Saudi oil is relatively cheap to extract so crude production can remain highly profitable at lower prices. In fact, with new drilling technologies, Saudi production costs have decreased even further, while field reservoir management, a technique to prolong the life cycle of a producing field by better managing its proven reserves, has become more efficient.
從沙特國內角度看，油價下跌完全是可控的。沙特石油開採成本相對較低，因此即便油價下跌，原油生產依然利潤很高。實際上，隨着新鑽探技術的採用，沙特的生產成本甚至進一步下降，同時油藏管理變得更加高效。油藏管理是一種通過更好地管理已探明儲量來延長開採油田生命週期的技術。Second, the Saudis have about $900bn in foreign assets, so their public finances are immune to a sudden big fall in revenues from petroleum sales. Finally, it seems clear that the Saudis want to bring back the realism of raw power to the global energy markets, which means the long-term national security interests of the kingdom — the top Opec producer and exporter — come first.
其次，沙特擁有大約9000億美元外國資產，因此石油銷售收入突然大幅下降不會對他們的公共財政產生衝擊。最後，似乎很明顯的是，沙特希望讓全球能源市場的原始力量重新發揮作用，這意味着首先要考慮沙特的長期國家安全利益。沙特是歐佩克最大的石油生產國和出口國。The Saudis also clearly view lower prices as helping them keep market share in the face of the shale oil production boom in the US. This revolutionary innovation will add several million barrels of oil per day to the global market. However, shale oil is expensive to extract, so lower prices will mean several important US producers will find their business models unsustainable over the mid to long term. Of course, the Saudi objective is to mitigate the increase in shale oil, not eradicate it, in order to assure a soft landing for global markets when oil prices rebound.
沙特顯然還認爲，油價下跌有利於他們在美國頁岩油產量大幅增長之際保住市場份額。頁岩油這種革命性的創新會讓全球市場石油日供應量增加數百萬桶。然而，頁岩油開採成本高，因此油價下跌將意味着，美國數家重要的頁岩油生產商會發現它們的業務模式在中長期內不可持續。當然，沙特的目標是減慢頁岩油產量的增長、而非徹底摧毀它，以確保在油價反彈時全球市場能夠軟着陸。Saudi Arabia holds about 25 per cent of the world’s oil reserves, 85 per cent of spare production capacity, and is the largest crude exporter by far. Hence, it has always taken a long-term moderate approach to implementing energy policy, in stark contrast to the other Opec countries (save its Gulf allies).
沙特擁有全球大約25%的石油儲量和85%的空閒產能，而且原油出口量遙遙領先於其他任何國家。因此，沙特在執行能源政策時始終秉持一種長期溫和路線，這與其他歐佩克成員國形成鮮明對比（沙特的海灣地區盟友除外）。Through various revenue model projections based on different oil price averages and export levels, the Saudis can sustain oil prices at $60 per barrel on average for at least five years, with dips as low as $40 per barrel. It would be a mistake to doubt the political resolve of the kingdom to see this new policy through in this new oil era. Inevitably the Saudi decision shows that Opec is increasingly irrelevant as a force in the global oil market. Further, the Opec and non-Opec members that have no room to increase exports and lack the political will and financial means to cut production — Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, Russia, Mexico and Nigeria — will become mere passive spectators.
通過基於不同均價和出口水平的多個收入模式預測，即使平均油價在長達5年的時間裏維持在每桶60美元的水平、甚至其間油價偶爾跌至每桶40美元，沙特也能承受。如果你認爲沙特沒有政治決心在這個新的石油時代貫徹這一新政策，那就錯了。沙特的決定無疑表明，歐佩克在全球石油市場上的角色日益無足輕重。此外，沒有餘地增加出口以及缺乏政治意願和財政緩衝實施減產的歐佩克成員國及非歐佩克國家——伊朗、伊拉克、委內瑞拉、俄羅斯、墨西哥和尼日利亞——將成爲純粹被動的旁觀者。Saudi Arabia, in keeping up with the changing realities in the energy markets, has realised that the market will rule. Oil producers that have not understood this tectonic shift and begun to adapt to this new reality will suffer, and be left behind to face their day of reckoning.
緊跟能源市場變化步伐的沙特已經認識到，未來將是市場說了算。沒明白這種結構性轉變並開始適應這種新現實的產油國將陷入困境，會掉隊並面臨市場的清算。Nawaf Obaid is a visiting fellow and associate instructor at the Belfer Center at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government
本文作者是哈佛大學肯尼迪政府學院(Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government)貝爾弗爾中心(Belfer Center)客座研究員兼副講師
