總結一下石油市場形勢 影響油價的五大因素

This post is in partnership with Time. The article below was originally published at

本文爲與《時代》雜誌的合作內容。

As we ring in the New Year, let’s take stock of where we are at with the oil markets. 2014 proved to be a momentous one for the oil markets, having seen prices cut in half in just six months.

新年已至，讓我們在此總結一下石油市場形勢。實際情況表明，2014年對石油市場來說非常重要——油價在短短六個月內下降了一半。

The big question is what oil prices will do in 2015. Oil prices are unsustainably low right now – many high-cost oil producers and oil-producing regions are currently operating in the red. That may work in the short-term, but over the medium and long-term, companies will be forced out of the market, precipitating a price rise. The big question is when they will rise, and by how much.

人們最爲關心的問題是，2015年石油價格將何去何從？石油目前的低價位是不可持續的。許多產油成本較高的企業和地區都處於虧損狀態。短期內這種狀況也許還可以應付，但中長期來看，石油公司將被迫退出市場，進而帶動油價上升。然而，最重要的問題在於：石油價格何時上漲，以及漲幅能有多大？

So, what does that mean for oil prices in 2015? It is anybody’s guess, but here are the top five variables that will determine the trajectory of oil prices over the next 12 months, in no particular order.

那麼，這對2015年的油價意味着什麼呢？人們對此各執己見。然而，今後12個月的油價走勢將由下列五大因素（排名不分先後）決定。

1. China’s Economy.China is the second largest consumer of oil in the world and surpassed the United States as the largest importer of liquid fuels in late 2013. More importantly for oil prices is how much China’s consumption will increase in the coming years. According to the EIA, China is expected burn through 3 million more barrels per day in 2020 compared to 2012, accounting for about one-quarter of global demand growth over that timeframe. Although there is much uncertainty, China just wrapped up a disappointing fourth quarter, capping off its slowest annual growth in over a quarter century. It is not at all obvious that China will be able to halt its sliding growth rate, but the trajectory of China’s economy will significantly impact oil prices in 2015.

1.中國經濟。中國是世界上第二大石油消費國，並且已經在2013年底超過美國，成爲全球最大液體燃料進口國。對於油價來說，更重要的一點取決於中國石油消費量在今後幾年的增長態勢。美國能源情報署預計，2020年中國的日均原油消費量將比2012年高出300萬桶，約佔這段時間內全球新增需求的四分之一。儘管還存在很多不確定因素，但中國經濟剛剛送走了令人失望的第四季度。最終，中國2014年全年經濟增長率跌至逾25年來的最低點。中國經濟能否停止減速，這一點我們難以得知，但它的走勢將對2015年的油價產生巨大影響。

2. American shale.By the end of 2014, the U.S. was producing more than 9 million barrels of oil per day, an 80 percent increase from 2007. That output went a long way to creating a glut of oil, which helped send oil prices to the dumps in 2014. Having collectively shot themselves in the foot, the big question is how affected U.S. drillers will be by sub-$60 WTI. Rig counts continue to fall, spending is being slashed, but output has so far been stable. Whether the industry can maintain output given today’s prices or production begins to fall will have an enormous impact on international supplies, and as a result, prices.

2. 美國頁岩油。截至2014年底，美國頁岩油日產量已經超過900萬桶，比2007年增加了80%。這些頁岩油是造成石油供給過剩的主要力量，而供過於求是2014年油價暴跌的誘因之一。總的來說，美國頁岩油開採公司都搬起石頭砸了自己的腳，但關鍵在於，西德州輕質低硫原油（WTI）價格跌破60美元對它們有何影響？頁岩油鑽機數量不斷減少，相關開支也遭到削減，然而到目前爲止，美國頁岩油產量依然穩定。按照當前油價，這個行業能否維持產出水平，或者說美國頁岩油產量會不會減少將對國際市場供應乃至油價產生重大影響。

3. Elasticity of Demand.The cure for low prices is low prices. That cliché can be applied to both the supply and demand side of the equation. Will oil selling at fire sale prices spur renewed demand? In some countries where oil is more regulated, low prices may not trickle down to the retail level. Countries like Indonesia are scrapping subsidies, which will be a boon to state coffers but will diminish the benefits to consumers. However, in the U.S., gasoline prices are now below $2.40 per gallon, more than 35 percent down from mid-2014. That has led to an uptick in gasoline consumption. In the waning days of 2014, the U.S. consumed gasoline at the highest daily rate since 2007. Low prices could spark higher demand, which in turn could send oil prices back up.

3. 需求彈性。解決價格低迷的方法就是低價。這是老生常談，而且適用於供需兩個方面。超低的原油價格會刺激需求復甦嗎？某些國家對石油市場控制較嚴，低油價可能不會延伸到零售領域。印尼等國已經取消成品油補貼，這有利於國家財政，但消費者得到的實惠將減少。不過，美國汽油價格已跌破每加侖2.40美元，與2014年中期相比，降幅超過了35%。而此番降價已帶動汽油消費的攀升。2014年底，美國汽油日消費量創2007年以來新高。低價可以提升需求，而需求的增長則可帶動油價反彈。

4. OPEC’s Next deserves a lot of credit (or blame) for the remarkable downturn in oil prices last year.While many pundits have declared OPEC irrelevant after their decision to leave output unchanged, the mere fact that oil prices crashed after the cartel’s November meeting demonstrates just how influential they are over price swings. For now OPEC – or, more accurately, Saudi Arabia – has stood firm in its insistence not to cut production quotas. Whether that remains true through 2015 is up in the air.

4. 歐佩克的下一步行動。說到去年的油價暴跌，石油輸出國組織（OPEC）起了很大作用（或者說要承擔很大責任）。雖然許多評論人士都說歐佩克保持原油產量不變無關緊要，然而，僅油價在該組織11月份會議過後出現暴跌這一事實便充分證明了該組織對油價走勢的影響力。目前，歐佩克——更確切地說是沙特——仍在堅持己見，毫無下調生產配額的跡象。2015年這一情況是否會得以延續，仍有待觀察。

5. Geopolitical flashpoints.In the not too distant past, a small supply disruption would send oil prices skyward. In early 2014, for example, violence in Libya blocked oil exports, contributing to a rise in oil prices. In Iraq, ISIS overran parts of the country and oil prices shot up on fears of supply outages. But since then, geopolitical flashpoints have had much less of an effect on the price of crude. During the last few weeks of 2014, violence flared up again in Libya. But after a brief increase in prices, the markets shrugged off the event. Nevertheless, history has demonstrated time and again that geopolitical crises are some of the most powerful short-term movers of oil prices.

5. 地緣政治事件。不久之前，石油供應稍有差池，油價就會飆升。比如說2014年初，利比亞內亂造成該國石油出口中斷，油價應聲上漲。在伊拉克， 極端組織ISIS領了部分地區，石油供應中斷的顧慮也造成油價急劇攀升。然而，自此之後，地緣政治事件對油價的影響大爲減弱。2014年最後幾周，利比亞再現戰事。但市場僅在油價短暫上揚後便把這一問題拋諸腦後。不過，歷史一再證明，地緣政治危機是對油價影響最大的短期因素之一。（財富中文網）