油價高漲的原因

As the price of crude oil rises on world markets, complaints from consumers, industries and politicians are also on the rise. Some blame the Organization of Petroleum Export Countries, the cartel known as OPEC, while others blame unrest in the Middle East and North Africa and still others blame market speculators.

由於全球市場原油價格攀高，來自消費者、業界以及政治家的抱怨聲也不絕於耳。一些人指責石油輸出國組織歐佩克，一些人將此歸咎於中東和北非的混亂局勢，而另一些人則把矛頭指向了投機商。

U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder has formed a Financial Fraud Enforcement Task Force Working Group to look into possible fraud in energy markets, but the price may be driven more by investment trends.

美國司法部長埃利克·霍德爾已組成金融欺詐執法工作組調查能源市場可能存在的欺詐行爲。然而，專家認爲，油價可能更多地是由投資趨勢所驅動。

Energy analysts see some of the usual factors driving oil prices this year, including increased demand in rapidly developing nations like India and China, restrictions on drilling in some areas like the eastern coast of the United States and unrest in oil-producing countries like Libya. But petroleum has also become a favored asset for investors looking for future profits and their dollars sometimes distort the market.

能源分析師列出了今年油價上漲的一些常規因素，這包括印度和中國等快速發展中國家的需求增加，美國東海岸等一些地區的採油限制，以及利比亞等產油國的騷亂。但是，石油也已經成爲尋求未來獲利的投資者喜愛的投資資產，他們的資金有時對市場造成扭曲。

Most investment money these days, from individual investors as well as from institutions, charitable groups and even governments, is now in various types of managed funds. Tom Kloza of the Oil Price Information Service says the managers of those funds can have a big impact on commodity prices, including the price of oil.

今時今日，來自個人和機構投資者以及來自慈善團體甚至政府的大多數投資資金，都是各式各樣的管理基金。美國石油價格信息服務公司的湯姆·克洛薩指出，這些基金的經理能夠對大宗商品價格造成巨大影響，包括油價。

"Probably no one is breaking any rules, but a couple of key strokes by a money manager can move millions and billions of dollars into a market, and affect the price of something which is a life blood for consumers and people on the margins of society all over the world," said Kloza.

克洛薩說：“也許無人能夠打破規則，但基金經理的幾個鍵盤操作能將數百萬甚至數十億美元的資金灌入市場，並對消費者賴以生存的商品價格和全世界處於社會邊緣的人們造成影響。”

He says governments can't eliminate all speculation from the market, but that some kind of regulation is needed, especially outside the United States.

他說，政府無法消除所有的市場投機行爲，但需要進行一些監管，特別是美國之外。

"I think unfettered is unforgivable and oil futures markets, particularly offshore, are largely unfettered," he said.

克洛薩說：“我認爲放任不管是不能原諒的，石油期貨市場，尤其是離岸市場，大體上是放任不管。”

Speaking at a meeting in Kuwait this week, OPEC Secretary General Abdalla El-Badri said world oil prices are now being driven more by speculation than supply and demand. Kloza and other analysts do not believe speculation plays a large role in the price rise, but they are not putting all the blame on OPEC either.

石油輸出國組織歐佩克祕書長巴德里最近在科威特舉行的一個會議上發表講話稱，目前全球油價正更多地由投機而不是由供需基本面驅動。克洛薩和其他分析師並不認爲投資是造成油價上漲的主要因素，但他們也沒有將此完全歸咎於歐佩克。

Saudi Arabia, the OPEC member nation with the world's largest reserves, has cut back on some of its production, thereby limiting supply and driving up prices, according to OPEC critics. But Tom Kloza believes OPEC leaders themselves are concerned about high prices.

據歐佩克的批評者所說，全球石油蘊藏量最大的國家、歐佩克成員沙特阿拉伯已經削減了一些石油產量，從而導致供應受限和油價攀升。但湯姆·克洛薩相信歐佩克領導人自己也對高油價感到擔憂。

"I think that many of the moderates, the doves within OPEC, are very uncomfortable with where prices are heading, because if we keep heading at this pace, we will open the door for some alternative technologies that would otherwise need subsidies or some sort of government give outs," said Kloza.

克洛薩說：“我認爲歐佩克內部的許多中間派對於油價走勢感到非常不安，因爲如果油價保持現在這種漲勢，我們將爲一些替代能源技術打開大門，那些技術將需要補貼或某種政府補助。”

Some non-OPEC countries, particularly China, may be playing a big role in driving up oil prices and not just through their demand, according to Peter Zeihan, Vice President of Analysis at the global intelligence company Stratfor in Austin, Texas. He agrees with Kloza that investment in oil is the key factor, but he says the increase in money available to invest is also important.

總部設在德克薩斯州奧斯汀市的Stratfor全球戰略情報中心副總裁彼得·扎漢說，一些非歐佩克成員國，尤其是中國，可能對油價造成很大影響，而且不僅僅是因爲它們的石油需求。他和克洛薩都認爲投資是個主要因素，但他說可用於投資的資金增長也很重要。"Back in the year 2000 the investing community as a whole made up about 10 percent of long positions in the oil market and now they are up to 40 percent," said Zeihan. "So you add that many new players and that much new money, but you do not add any more than a 10 percent increase in oil supply and, of course, you are going to have higher prices."

扎漢說：“2000年時，投資資金在石油市場多頭頭寸中所佔的比例約爲10%，而現在已經佔到40%。因此，增加了這些新的市場參與者和大量新的投資資金，但石油供應的增加幅度不超過10%，當然油價就會上升。”

While that investment money comes from all over the world, Zeihan says one of the most significant contributors has been China, which takes in dollars from the United States and other nations that import its products. He says China has put much of that money into oil futures.

雖然投資資金來自全球各地，但是扎漢說，其中最主要的資金來源地之一是中國。他說，中國從進口其產品的美國和其它國家那裏獲得美元，並將那些錢中的大部分投資於石油期貨。

But the Stratfor analyst says the fundamental laws of supply and demand always win out eventually and then, as happened in 1998, 2001, and, most recently and dramatically in 2008, the price drops.

但這位Stratfor公司的分析師說，供需的基本法則最終總是決定性因素，就像1998、2001和最近也是波動最大的一年2008年發生的那樣，價格會下降。

"Sooner or later the fundamentals are going to overpower the investor fervor," he said. "It happens every few years. Eventually the fundamentals will overpower any exuberance on the market and you will have a sudden, rapid sustained price drop over the course of a few weeks."

扎漢說：“遲早供需基本面將蓋過投資熱。這種情況每幾年就會出現。最終基本面將壓倒市場繁榮，油價將在幾個星期裏突然地持續迅速下跌。”

Zeihan is not predicting when that will happen. In the meantime, he sees signs that higher prices are encouraging more conservation and driving sales of fuel-efficient cars, but he does not see the development of an alternative to oil any time soon.

扎漢沒有預測油價將於何時下跌。與此同時，他看到有跡象顯示油價升高正鼓勵更多的保守消費模式和帶動燃油經濟型汽車的銷售，但他並不認爲石油替代品會很快發展。

"In the United States we have proven that high prices were certainly exactly what was necessary to make hybrids very popular, but in terms of any other energy source, there is really nothing on the horizon," he said.

扎漢說：“在美國我們已經證實高油價對於混合動力車受到青睞顯然是必要的，但是談到其它能源，還真沒有什麼可替代石油的。”

Zeihan says there is no other transportation fuel as dense in energy, as flexible and as easy to transport and use as petroleum. Natural gas from shale may help alleviate some of the U.S. demand, he says, but that will require a big investment in infrastructure. He says electric cars, recharged from power supplied by expanded nuclear plants, looked promising until the recent nuclear accident in Japan. For the foreseeable future, Zeihan says, the world depends on oil and consumers will have to put up with the frequent price fluctuations.

扎漢說，沒有哪種其它交通燃料能像石油一樣密集、靈活、易於運輸和使用。他說，來自頁岩中的天然氣可能幫助美國緩解一些需求，但這將需要基礎設施方面的大量投資。他說，在最近的日本核事故發生前，電動汽車的前景一度看好，這些電動汽車用擴增的核電廠供應的電力充電。對於可預見的未來，扎漢說，全球還得依賴石油，消費者將不得不忍受油價的頻繁波動。