影響油價下一步走勢的五個因素

As the price of crude oil reaches its highest level of the year, traders are split over whether the rally of almost 80 per cent since prices bottomed in January can keep going.

在油價處於年內最高點之際，交易員們對於這輪漲勢能否持續看法不一。原油價格自1月觸底後，已反彈近80%。

With the price of Brent, the international benchmark, and US West Texas Intermediate, rising strongly, five factors could dictate the next move.

國際基準布倫特原油(Brent)以及美國西德克薩斯中質原油(West Texas Intermediate)的價格正在強勁上漲，下一步走勢如何，可能要看五個因素：

Nigeria and other troubled Opec producers

尼日利亞，還有其他陷入困境的歐佩克(OPEC)產油國

The latest leg-up in prices comes as output in Nigeria, which used to be Africa’s largest producer, has fallen to the lowest level in more than 20 years.

支撐油價上漲的最新一個利好是，昔日非洲最大的產油國尼日利亞的石油產量降至逾20年來的最低水平。

Militant attacks on oil facilities in the Niger delta have slashed the Opec member’s output to below 1.4m barrels a day — a drop of more than 40 per cent from its recent peak — and reignited fears of prolonged unrest.

武裝分子不斷襲擊尼日爾三角洲的石油設施，致使尼日利亞石油日產量降至140萬桶以下——較近年產量峯值下滑40%以上——同時再次引發了人們對尼日利亞會長期陷入動亂的擔憂。

In Libya output remains depressed, while in Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro has declared a 60-day state of emergency.

利比亞的石油產量仍然低迷，與此同時，委內瑞拉總統尼古拉斯•馬杜羅(Nicolás Maduro)宣佈該國進入爲期60天的緊急狀態。

Supply disruptions

供應中斷

It is not only weak Opec countries that are struggling to maintain output. Wildfires in Alberta have knocked out about 1m barrels a day or more than a fifth of Canada’s production.

並非只有疲弱的歐佩克國家正在艱難地維持產量。阿爾伯塔省(Alberta)的森林大火使加拿大石油日產量減少約100萬桶，相當於全國產量的五分之一以上。

Supplies are also being hit by the lower price. Output in the US, which drove the creation of the glut in the years before the price crash, has fallen more than 500,000 b/d from a peak of 9.7m b/d 13 months ago.

供應也受到了低油價的衝擊。在油價暴跌之前，美國石油市場處於供應過剩的狀態，而目前美國石油日產量較13個月前的峯值970萬桶減少了逾50萬桶。

In China, still a big source of demand growth, output is set to slip more than 3 per cent, or 140,000 b/d, this year, according to Opec’s monthly report.

根據歐佩克的月度報告，中國仍然是全球石油需求增長的一大來源，預計今年其日均產量將下滑逾3%，或14萬桶。

Disruptions, which analysts put at more than 3m b/d, have helped put the market into, or close to, a deficit for the first time in more than two years.

供應中斷——分析師估計超過300萬桶/日——有助於推動石油市場在兩年多的時間裏首次進入（或接近於）供小於求的狀態。

Saudi Arabia

沙特阿拉伯

Is the Opec kingpin going to raise output? That is perhaps the biggest question dogging oil markets in the medium term. With the replacement of veteran oil minister Ali al-Naimi this month, cementing deputy crown prince Mohammed bin Salman’s control over the sector, traders are nervously watching for any sign of higher output .

這個歐佩克核心國會增產嗎？這或許是中期內困擾石油市場的最大問題。沙特經驗豐富的石油部長阿里•納伊米(Ali Al-Naimi)本月離任，副王儲穆罕默德•本•薩勒曼(Mohammed bin Salman)進一步鞏固了對石油部門的控制，在這種情況下交易員正緊張關注着沙特任何可能要增產的跡象。

Saudi Arabia, the only country with significant spare capacity, has made clear its belief that the lowest-cost producers should pump the most.

作爲唯一擁有大量備用產能的國家，沙特已經明確表態：成本最低的產油國應該輸出最多的石油。

But after raising output from 9.6m b/d in late 2014 to a record 10.6m b/d last June, its output has been steady. Since August 2015 production has averaged 10.2m b/d with little fluctuation.

但是，在將日產量從2014年末的960萬桶增加至去年6月的歷史最高水平1060萬桶後，其產量便保持穩定。自2015年8月以來，沙特石油產量平均爲每日1020萬桶，幾乎沒有波動。

Khalid al-Falih, the new oil minister, has promised “stability” in policymaking, but also emphasised Saudi Arabia’s ability to use its “maximum sustainable capacity” to meet demand.

沙特新任石油部長哈立德•法利赫(Khalid al-Falih)承諾在政策上保持“穩定”，但是也強調了沙特利用其“最大可持續產能”來滿足需求的能力。

US shale

美國頁岩油

The average annual crude oil output from the US is forecast to fall from a peak of 9.4m b/d last year to 8.2m b/d in 2017, according to the Energy Information Administration.

根據美國能源信息署(EIA)的預測，美國原油產量預計將從去年每日940萬桶的峯值，下滑至2017年的日均820萬桶。

Amid higher prices the agency has trimmed the expected drop by 100,000 b/d since prices were below $40 a barrel. Nearer $50 the outlook is less clear.

比起油價處於每桶40美元以下的時候，該機構已將美國日產量減少的預期規模下調了10萬桶。油價越接近50美元/桶，前景越不明朗。

Some oil companies have said they could restart drilling above $50 a barrel. But the impact of any price rise may come quicker through the futures market. Banks will ask companies to hedge as soon as the price is high enough to keep their operations going. That will probably put the brakes on any price rises as companies sell forward their production.

一些石油企業稱，當油價上漲至每桶50美元以上，它們可能會恢復鑽井作業。但是油價上漲的影響可能會通過期貨市場更快地顯現。一旦油價上漲至足以維持作業的水平，銀行將要求企業進行對衝。由於石油企業提前出售產量，這可能將對油價上漲構成阻礙。

Hedge funds

對衝基金

When oil prices hit a floor below $30 in January, hedge funds started buying. In the first 19 weeks of the year money managers were net buyers of Brent crude, building a near-record position equivalent to 420m barrels.

今年1月油價觸及30美元以下的谷底時，對衝基金開始買入。在今年的前19周內，資產管理公司一直是布倫特原油的淨買家，建立了接近紀錄高點的倉位，相當於4.2億桶。

The move was largely replicated in WTI, where net longs rose to almost 250m barrels.

WTI原油市場的情況也基本一樣，淨多頭增至將近2.5億桶。