FT分析 蘋果能否征服印度市場

As the Gujarat Lions cruised to an easy win over the Kolkata Knight Riders, Tim Cook stood on the edge of the pitch expressing his newfound love for Indian cricket. “I’m totally hooked . . . it’s so exciting here,” Apple's chief executive said, midway through his first visit to the country this month.

就在古吉拉特雄師隊(Gujarat Lions)輕鬆取勝加爾各答騎士隊(Kolkata Knight Riders)時，蒂姆•庫克(Tim Cook)站在球場邊表達着自己對印度板球新萌發的熱愛。“我完全被迷住了……這裏太令人興奮了，”這位蘋果(Apple)首席執行官5月在首次造訪印度時說。

Mr Cook’s cricket outing may have been in part a publicity stunt, but he has good reason to seek a better understanding of Indian culture. The country has become a conspicuous source of growth for Apple, which said iPhone sales there increased by 56 per cent in the first quarter of this year, even as they fell globally for the first time.

庫克的板球行在某種程度上或許是宣傳伎倆，但是他有很好的理由去嘗試更好地理解印度文化。印度已經成爲了蘋果的一個突出增長來源——今年第一季度，就在iPhone全球銷量首次同比下降之際，印度iPhone銷量增長56%。

In fact, world smartphone sales as a whole suffered their first fall in the same period, according to research by Canalys, but India’s market again stood out, notching up an overall 12 per cent increase as millions of people made the switch from basic feature phones.

事實上，據Canalys研究顯示，同期全球智能手機整體銷量經歷了首次下跌。但是，印度市場再次異軍突起：隨着數百萬人從功能手機轉而使用智能手機，印度智能手機總銷量增長了12%。

Mr Cook’s visit has put the spotlight on what is now “the most important country in the smartphone market”, according to a Morgan Stanley report last month, which predicted that by next year sales in India would be second only to China and boast a higher growth rate.

庫克此行讓人們關注起印度。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)4月的報告稱，如今印度是“智能手機市場裏最重要的國家”。報告預測，明年印度智能手機銷量將位列全球第二，僅次於中國，增長率還有望更高。

But in some respects India is more challenging than any other big market on which Apple has set its sights.

但是，在某些方面，印度比蘋果迄今看中的所有其他大型市場都更富有挑戰性。

Competition is heating up, with a growing crowd of Chinese players including Lenovo, Xiaomi and Huawei taking on the established leaders — South Korea’s Samsung Electronics and entrenched local brands such as Micromax.

競爭正在升溫。聯想(Lenovo)、小米(Xiaomi)和華爲(Huawei)等越來越多的中國選手一方面正在挑戰韓國三星電子(Samsung Electronics)老牌領軍企業，另一方面還在挑戰Micromax等根基深厚的印度本土品牌。

Per capita income of $1,617 last year, compared with China’s $7,990, means the iPhone is beyond the means of the vast majority of Indians. Analysts put its national market share at no more than 2 per cent.

與中國7990美元的人均國民收入相比，印度去年人均國民收入僅爲1617美元，這意味着iPhone超出了絕大多數印度人的價格承受範圍。分析師認爲iPhone在印度佔據的市場份額不超過2%。

“People in rural towns are buying feature phones at Rs500-Rs1,500 ($7-$22),” says Navkendar Singh, an analyst at IDC, who estimates that smartphones still account for less than half of overall mobile phone sales in India despite the rapid growth. “We don't expect them to make a big jump and start spending a lot of money on telecoms.”

“在農村生活的人們一般購買500至1500盧比（合7至22美元）的功能手機，”IDC分析師納肯達爾•辛格(Navkendar Singh)表示。他估計，儘管智能手機銷量增長迅速，但是在印度手機總銷量中的佔比仍不足一半。“我們不認爲他們會出現飛躍式的變化，開始在通話設備上花大價錢。”

About half of Apple’s handset sales in India in the first quarter of the year were of the almost four year old iPhone 5s, according to Counterpoint Research.

Counterpoint Research表示，今年第一季度蘋果在印度售出的iPhone約一半是面世已將近3年的iPhone 5s。

Mr Cook’s recent meeting with Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, gave him a chance to lobby for concessions that would strengthen Apple’s position in this race.

庫克最近與印度總理納倫德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi)的會面，爲他提供了一次討要優待的機會，這會讓蘋果在這場競賽中獲得更爲有利的位置。

The company had been seeking to broaden its appeal to cost-conscious consumers by selling used phones — but the Indian government ruled against that plan this month, after complaints that it would cannibalise domestic phone manufacturing.

該公司此前一直試圖通過出售二手手機來擴大自己對注重價格的消費者的吸引力，但是，有人抱怨稱這將損害印度本土手機制造業，印度政府5月裁定該計劃不得實行。

Anshul Gupta, an analyst at Gartner, says Apple’s eagerness to distribute low-cost iPhones is logical even if it could weigh on margins in the short term. “What matters is the installed base [using Apple’s operating system] . . . some of those will later be upgrading to the high end,” he says.

Gartner分析師安舒爾•古普塔(Anshul Gupta)稱，蘋果渴望銷售低價iPhone是合乎邏輯的，即使這在短期內使利潤率承壓。“重要的是（使用蘋果操作系統的）用戶基數……其中一些隨後將升級購買更高端產品，”他稱。

More than 90 per cent of phone users in India use prepaid SIM cards instead of long-term contracts, which prevents operators from offering the kind of subsidies that have boosted sales of higher-cost handsets elsewhere.

印度逾90%的手機用戶都使用預付費SIM卡、而不簽訂長期合同，這使得運營商無法提供那種在其他地區提振了高價手機銷量的補貼。

But Mr Cook argues that opportunities offered by fast 4G networks will boost iPhone sales. Market leader Bharti Airtel launched the first national 4G network last August, which should be followed this year by Reliance Jio, a $16bn telecoms project from Reliance Industries, India’s second-biggest listed company.

但是，庫克認爲，快速的4G網絡帶來的機遇將提振iPhone銷量。去年8月，印度市場領軍企業巴蒂電信(Bharti Airtel)推出了印度首個4G網絡，第二個4G網絡應該會在今年由Reliance Jio推出——Reliance Jio是印度第二大上市公司信實工業(Reliance Industries)價值160億美元的電信項目。

“Knowing Reliance, I won’t be surprised if they pick up a few hundred thousand iPhones and subsidise them for the marketing impact,” says Jayant Kolla, co-founder of Convergence Catalyst, a telecoms consultancy.

“以我對信實的瞭解，如果他們爲了營銷效果而入手幾十萬部iPhone併爲其提供補貼，我不會感到意外，”電信諮詢公司Convergence Catalyst的共同創始人賈揚特•科拉(Jayanth Kolla)稱。

Apple’s recent growth in India has come largely at the expense of Samsung. According to CyberMedia Research, Apple’s share of sales in the premium smartphone segment — with prices above Rs30,000 — rose to 44 per cent last year, only 2 percentage points behind the South Korean group.

蘋果近來在印度市場的增長，主要損害的是三星的利益。CyberMedia Research數據顯示，去年蘋果在高端智能手機（售價高於3萬盧比）品類的市場份額達到44%，僅比三星少2個百分點。

But Samsung remains the clear leader in India’s overall market, having stemmed sharp falls in market share with its successful Galaxy J range. With features seemingly aimed at Indian consumers — including a special mode for motorbike users that attracted interest in the world’s biggest two-wheeler market — that series also brought improved design at a lower cost than previous models.

但是，就整個印度市場而言，三星仍是毫無爭議的領導者，Galaxy J系列的成功讓該公司止住了市場份額大幅下滑的局面。該系列有一些看上去專爲印度消費者設計的功能（還有一個專爲摩托車司機設計的特別型號，旨在吸引這個世界第二大兩輪車市場的興趣），改進了設計，並且價格比老款更低。

Samsung has refused to be part of the widespread discounting of smartphones on ecommerce sites such as Flipkart. “Samsung is one of the few that has preserved price discipline,” Mr Singh says.

三星一直拒絕參與Flipkart等電商平臺上流行的智能手機打折促銷。“三星是堅守價格紀律的少數廠商之一，”辛格說。

In contrast, Chinese smartphone makers such as Lenovo, Xiaomi and Huawei piggybacked on the distribution infrastructure of ecommerce sites as a low-risk way to enter the Indian market. Xiaomi, for example, targeted India for one of its first forays beyond China, and has launched its phones in the country through a series of promotional events with Flipkart — after each of which the companies have announced that the early stock was sold out in less than 15 seconds.

相比之下，聯想、小米和華爲等中國智能手機廠商則利用了電商網站的銷售平臺，作爲一條進入印度市場的低風險渠道。例如，小米把印度作爲海外佈局的首選地之一，通過Flipkart上的一系列推廣活動，在印度市場發售自己的手機。每一次推廣活動都是開始不到15秒鐘，廠商就宣佈先期庫存已售罄。

Now entrenched as big players — their market share doubled in the year to March to reach nearly one-quarter, says IDC — the Chinese groups are seeking to cement their position by investing in a physical presence, including heavy branding in third-party retail stores.

儘管這些中國廠商如今已經擁有舉足輕重的市場地位（IDC表示，在截至今年3月的一年裏，中國廠商在印度的市場份額增加了一倍、至近四分之一），但它們仍尋求通過投資於實體業務（比如在第三方零售店進行大規模品牌推廣）來鞏固自己的地位。

The surge of Chinese imports is putting to the test India’s hopes of developing globally competitive smartphone brands, which still account for about four in 10 phones sold.

印度希望打造在國際上有競爭力的智能手機品牌，而來自中國的進口手機猛增令這一願望受到考驗。目前，印度本土智能手機品牌仍佔到印度智能手機總銷量的四成。

Local champion Micromax remained the second-biggest producer by volume in the first quarter with 17 per cent market share, according to Canalys, but that figure has been declining.

Canalys數據顯示，按銷量計，印度本土智能手機領軍企業Micromax今年一季度仍是第二大智能手機廠商，佔到17%的市場份額，但這個數字一直在下降。

Having lost its chief executive in March, Micromax is now bullishly targeting foreign expansion particularly in former Soviet countries. But it has not done enough to differentiate itself from other Android-based phonemakers, says Mr Kolla. He notes that it and other Indian companies such as Karbonn and Intex are still largely reliant on Chinese contractors and suppliers — even as they shift production to India in response to higher import duties and rising wages in China.

Micromax原首席執行官今年3月離職。該公司如今正積極瞄準對外擴張，尤其是向前蘇聯國家擴張。但科拉說，該公司的努力還不足以使它從衆多安卓系統手機廠商中脫穎而出。他指出，即便在Karbonn、Intex等印度廠商爲應對進口關稅升高和中國工資上漲，將生產基地搬回印度之際，這些廠商仍然對中國合同商和供貨商非常依賴。

Mr Kolla says the opportunity to profit from rapid smartphone adoption in India will not last for ever — for local brands or international competitors. “This growth won’t continue beyond 2018,” he warns. “The rest of the market is flat, and India will get there in a couple of years.”

科拉說，無論是對印度本土品牌還是對它們的國際競爭者而言，印度智能手機迅速普及帶來的盈利機會都不會一直存在下去。“這種增速將不會持續到2018年之後，”他警告稱，“其他地區的市場已停止增長，印度市場在幾年後也將呈現出這種狀態。”