車市風雲 印度尼西亞的汽車市場

IT IS South-East Asia's fastest-growing vehicle market, but investors, analysts and especially carmakers were awaiting Indonesia's July sales figures with trepidation. Spooked by fears of a credit bubble in a booming economy, on June 15th the government had introduced a rule requiring buyers to fork out a minimum down-payment of 30% when borrowing from banks to buy new cars. Loans account for 70% of all new-car purchases, and it was hoped that this would dampen demand.

印尼是東南亞地區成長最迅速的汽車市場，但投資者、分析師尤其是汽車生產廠商都在誠惶誠恐的等待印尼市場7月份的銷售數據。對繁榮經濟產生信貸泡沫的擔憂使得政府如驚弓之鳥，於6月15日頒佈一條規定，要求消費者在貸款購買新車時，支付最少30%的定金。貸款佔到所有新車購買比重的70%，因此政府希望此舉可以抑制購買需求。

In the end, however, spendthrift consumers defied the government. Relieved car bosses saw July's sales rise by 0.8% from June's figure, setting a monthly record of 102,512 cars. Indonesia could be back on track to breach the 1m barrier this year, compared with 900,000 in 2011. Motorcycle sales-8m last year-also continue to resist gravity, or at least the government. Bikers now have to make down-payments of 25%, yet sales for July still hit a new high of 579,077, up from 541,918 in June.

然而，結果是揮霍無度的消費者公然和政府作對。如釋重負的汽車大亨們看到7月的銷售額環比增漲0.8%，月銷售記錄爲102512輛。與去年900000輛的銷量相比，印尼今年可能回到正軌，打破1百萬輛的銷售瓶頸。摩托車的銷量（去年銷量爲8百萬輛）也繼續一反常態，至少是不如政府所願。自行車購買者現在不得不付25%的定金，但7月自行車的銷售量比起6月541,918輛的業績，還是創下579077輛的新高。

July's strong figures may yet prove anomalous. There is usually a bounce in consumer spending when Indonesia's Muslim majority celebrates the Ramadan fasting period: cars and motorbikes are in particular demand as people travel long distances to visit their families. The market could decelerate now Ramadan is over.

7月強勁的業績可能表現的很反常。在印尼大多數穆斯林慶祝齋月禁食期間，消費者的開銷通常會出現反彈：由於人們要長途跋涉拜訪親戚，汽車和摩托車炙手可熱。現在齋月結束了，車市增速可能放緩。

Nevertheless, carmakers are still confident enough in Indonesia's potential to forge ahead with big expansion plans. At the moment the car market is dominated by the Japanese manufacturers, with a share of about 95%. Having stuck with Indonesia as other firms bailed out during one or other of the country's periodic meltdowns, the Japanese are being rewarded for their perseverance. Toyota (with its affiliate, Daihatsu) has about 51% of the market and Mitsubishi 15%, followed by Suzuki, Honda and Nissan. All are planning new production lines and new models.

無論如何，汽車生產商仍對在印尼市場繼續推進宏大擴張計劃的潛力滿懷信心。現在日本汽車生產商主宰着汽車市場，市場份額約爲95%。隨着在印尼一次次週期性的經濟崩潰中其他企業被淘汰，日本汽車製造商和印尼一同深陷泥潭，現在日本汽車製造商的堅持不懈得到了回饋。豐田及其附屬公司大發市場份額爲51%，東芝爲15%，緊隨其後的公司是鈴木、本田和尼桑。這些公司均計劃推出新生產線和新車型。

Others are now trying to muscle in. GM of America will shortly reopen a plant in West Java that it had closed in 2005. BMW of Germany is expanding production. India's Tata Motors is pondering whether to set up shop in Thailand-South-East Asia's established motor workshop-or Indonesia. Ford has less than 2% of the market, but is energetically marketing its high-end models at a growing middle class. Its local boss, Bagus Susanto, says these are “mostly young and techno-savvy, discerning consumers…who want cars that match with their gadgets and lifestyles.”

其他公司也在嘗試分一杯羹。美國通用將短暫重新開啓在西爪哇省2005年關閉的一個工廠。德國寶馬正在擴大生產規模。印度的塔塔汽車公司正在考慮是否在泰國（東南亞最負盛名的汽車工廠）或是印尼建立自己的工廠。福特的市場份額不到2%，但正激情澎湃的將其高端車款向不斷壯大的中產階級營銷。福特汽車的當地主管Bagus Susanto稱“這些中產階級大多是懂技術且眼光敏銳的青年消費者，他們想要和他們的小配件及生活方式相稱的汽車”。

Underlying this optimism is a belief that Indonesia's economy will continue its dizzying ascent. It grew by 6.5% last year; although neighbouring economies may slow this year, Indonesia should come close to maintaining its growth rate. Despite record sales, only 4% of the population has a car, a relatively low figure (see chart). Given the country's 240m-strong population, the potential is obvious. The industry minister forecasts annual sales of 2m cars by the end of the decade, at which point Indonesia will have long since overtaken Thailand as the biggest market in South-East Asia, even if the Thais remain the region's biggest carmakers.

這樣的樂觀心態背後是人們相信印尼經濟會繼續飛速發展。去年印尼經濟增長率上升6.5%，儘管周邊國家的經濟今年會放緩，但印尼基本上應會保持其增速。儘管創有銷售記錄，但有車的人口只佔印尼總人口的4%，這一相對較低的水平（見表）。考慮到印尼有2億4千萬的廣大人口，消費潛力顯而易見。工業部長預測到2020年汽車年銷售量達2百萬輛，屆時印尼將早已取代泰國成爲東南亞地區最大的汽車市場，即使泰國仍是該地區最大的汽車製造國。

If Indonesia has growing numbers of people who can afford cars, what it needs now are some decent roads. Willianto le, an analyst at Nomura, a Japanese bank, says the country's lamentable record on public works may be set to improve. In August President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono finally signed into law the Land Acquisition Bill, which had spent years going through the country's tortuous legislative process. Its approval should make it easier for the government to compel landowners to sell up, allowing it to build much-needed highways across the main islands of Java and Sumatra, among other projects. If the bureaucrats get their act together-never guaranteed in Indonesia-the car market should keep revving up.

如果印尼有越來越多的人能買得起車，印尼現在所需的是一些像樣的公路。日本野村銀行的分析師Willianto le稱印尼糟糕的公共工程狀況將會得到改善。8月印尼總統蘇西洛•班邦•尤多約諾最終簽署了土地徵用法案，這一耗費數年通過印尼冗長繁複的立法程序的法律。該法案的通過將使得政府能更容易的促使土地所有者賣掉土地，進而能夠在其他項目中，修建貫通爪哇島、蘇門答臘島間急需的高速公路。如果官員們能協同一致行動（在印尼從未實現），汽車市場會繼續欣欣向榮。