中國股市大跌殃及亞洲市場
A shocking start to the year for China’s financial markets has resulted in the rest of Asia faring little better.
中國金融市場令人震驚的新年開局嚴重拖累了亞洲其他市場。
Worldwide interest in China’s markets and economy is shining a spotlight on the region’s other markets as investors and analysts test links with mainland assets that in some cases are new and developing.
全球對中國市場及經濟的興趣，使亞洲其他市場也暴露在聚光燈下。投資者和分析師在測試一些資產與中國資產的關聯；在某些情況下，這些關聯是新的、正在發展的。
Until recently, Asian markets tended to track closely the lead provided by Wall Street, even as local economies increased exposure to their vast neighbour. Now fears about China are weakening US stocks, and further weighing on Asia itself.
直到不久以前，亞洲各市場仍傾向於密切追隨華爾街的引領，即便亞洲的經濟體對鄰近的龐大經濟體增加了敞口。如今，有關中國的擔心正在壓低美國股價，進而進一步拖累亞洲當地的市場。
“We’re in an environment where the market here is sensitive to slowing growth and downwardly revised expectations,” says Timothy Moe, chief Asia-Pacific equity strategist at Goldman Sachs.
“我們正處於這樣的環境：這裏的市場對於經濟增長放緩和向下修正的預期十分敏感，”高盛(Goldman Sachs)亞太區首席股票策略師慕天輝(Timothy Moe)表示。
“Against that backdrop you’ve got fears about growth in China then being fanned by stocks falling and the renminbi depreciating.”
“在這個大背景下，你首先對中國經濟增長產生憂慮，然後被股價下跌和人民幣貶值搞得更加擔憂。”
There was no respite yesterday. Falls in Shanghai and Shenzhen took their losses so far this year to 15 per cent and 20 per cent, respectively.
昨日沒有出現讓人喘口氣的機會。上海和深圳股市延續跌勢，使它們今年迄今的跌幅分別達到15%和20%。
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is now down 9.2 per cent this year, Japan’s Topix is off 6.5 per cent and Taiwan’s Taiex has fallen 6.6 per cent. For the broader MSCI Asia-Pacific, 2016 ranks as the poorest start since 2000.
香港恆生指數(Hang Seng index)今年以來下跌9.2%，日本的東證指數(Topix)下跌6.5%，臺灣加權指數(Taiex)下跌6.6%。從覆蓋面更廣的MSCI明晟亞太指數(MSCI Asia-Pacific)看，2016年的新年開局是自2000年以來最糟糕的。
Manishi Raychaudhuri, Asia equity strategist at BNP Paribas, says: “We knew we were living in difficult times but we didn’t imagine the risks would come home to roost so early in the year, and so brutally.”
法國巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)亞洲股票策略師Manishi Raychaudhuri表示：“之前我們知道當下是困難時期，但我們想不到風險會在進入新的一年後這麼快就爆發，而且這麼無情。”
Regional currencies have also suffered, with the Korean won falling 3.1 per cent against the dollar and the Malaysian ringgit 2.1 per cent weaker.
亞洲各國的貨幣也受到打擊，韓元兌美元匯率下跌3.1%，馬來西亞林吉特下跌2.1%。
The losses across asset classes have left investors scrambling to understand better how China actually interacts with its neighbours.
不同資產類別紛紛出現虧損，促使投資者紛紛想要更好地理解中國與鄰近的經濟體之間存在怎樣的相互作用。
“There was a view for a lot of last year that the worst was behind us and that a Fed hike wasn’t to be feared given the significant adjustment we’d already had,” says Jonathan Garner, chief Asia and emerging markets equity strategist for Morgan Stanley. “But people are not as underweight as was thought.”
“去年很長時間裏曾有一種觀點認爲，我們已挺過最糟糕的時期，而且鑑於我們已經遭遇的重大調整，美聯儲(Fed)加息沒什麼可怕的，”摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)亞洲和新興市場首席股票策略師郭強盛(Jonathan Garner)表示。“但是，投資者（對亞洲股票）的持有比重沒有原來想象的那麼低。”
Hong Kong has so far been the epicentre of reaction. Just yesterday, the short-term cost of borrowing offshore renminbi spiked sharply higher — thought to be largely a side-effect of China’s suspected intervention in the offshore market in the past week.
香港迄今是反應的震中。就在昨日，借入離岸人民幣的短期成本出現飆升——據信這主要是中國在過去一週疑似干預離岸市場的一個副作用。
Offshore renminbi rates have limited real economic impact; however, analysts are also exploring more direct connections between the mainland and its offshore hub.
離岸人民幣利率對實體經濟影響有限；不過，分析師們也在探討內地與離岸中心之間的更直接聯繫。
The Morgan Stanley team, for example, calculates that every 1 per cent fall in the renminbi’s value against the dollar translates into a cut of a little more than 1 per cent in reported earnings for the Hong Kong China Enterprises index, the main measure of the Hong Kong shares of mainland companies.
比如，根據摩根士丹利團隊的計算，人民幣相對於美元的幣值每下跌1%，就會轉換成恆生中國企業指數（HSCEI，在港上市內地企業的主要股指）成份股報告的盈利減少逾1%。
With China’s markets still largely closed to outsiders, indices such as the HSCEI have become key proxies for China bets and feature in a range of products from futures to index-linked derivatives.
鑑於中國市場在很大程度上仍然不對外國人開放，恆生中國企業指數之類的指數已成爲押注中國的主要工具，用於各種產品——從期貨到指數掛鉤的衍生品。
Mohammed Apabhai, head of Asia-Pacific trading strategies at Citigroup, cautions that there is also the potential for particular products to move markets. So-called “autocallables”, index-related bets that offer an attractive yield unless the underlying market falls to a specified level, have proved popular in markets such as Korea. Many of these are based on the HSCEI.
花旗集團(Citigroup)亞太區交易策略主管穆罕默德阿帕亥(Mohammed Apabhai)告誡稱，某些產品也有可能影響市場行情。所謂的“自動贖回產品”(autocallables)——與指數關聯的押注，提供有吸引力的收益率，除非標的市場跌至某個特定水平——迄今在韓國等市場被證明很受歡迎。此類產品中有很多基於恆生中國企業指數。
Mr Apabhai says: “You can imagine if the market is down 5 or 6 per cent in a day then suddenly there is some futures selling that emerges, that is going to have a pretty big impact.
阿帕亥表示：“你可以想象，如果市場在一天裏下跌5%或6%，然後突然出現一些期貨拋售，那將產生相當大的影響。
“If you woke up tomorrow and you saw the HSCEI down 12 per cent [and] if you didn’t know about these products what you’d automatically imagine is that this is it; this is the big China credit crisis that everybody’s been waiting for, when actually it may be nothing of the sort and it may just be a technical selling.”
“如果你明日早上醒來，看到恆生中國企業指數下跌12%，如果你不知道有這些產品存在，你會自動想到這就是了，這就是人人預期會爆發的中國信貸大危機，而實際上它可能根本不是那麼回事，而只是技術性賣盤。”
