中國製造業疲軟引發全球股市大跌

Keep the seatbelts on.

請繫好安全帶。

Stock markets around the world tumbled again on Tuesday, dashing hopes that financial markets would calm down after two weeks of turbulence.

本週二，全球股市再次大跌，擊破了金融市場將在兩週的震盪後走穩的希望。

Investors appear to be growing more nervous about the strength of the global economy. China released a weak report on manufacturing on Tuesday, and an influential international policy maker sounded a downbeat note on the outlook for Asian economies.

投資者似乎越來越擔心全球經濟後繼乏力。中國本週二公佈的數據顯示其製造業走勢疲軟，而一位舉足輕重的國際政策制定者對亞洲經濟的前景表示了悲觀。

After steep declines in the stock markets of Asia and Europe, stocks in the United States also plummeted. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index slid 58.33 points, or 2.96 percent. The benchmark is now 10.2 percent below its nominal high, putting it back in a correction — the Wall Street term for a decline of more than 10 percent from a peak level. The S.&P. 500 index is still 2.48 percent above the low it closed at last week.

繼亞洲和歐洲股市大跌之後，美國股市也跳水。標準普爾500指數跌58.33點，跌幅2.96%。現在該指數比其名義高位低10.2%，回到調整區間——這是華爾街術語，指比峯值水平低逾10%。但標準普爾500指數仍站在比上週收盤時高出2.48%的位置。

But the underlying ugliness of the action — only three stocks in the S.&P. 500 Rose on Tuesday — suggested that the market could have further to drop.

但下跌的慘狀——標準普爾500種股票中僅有3只個股上漲——表明股市可能有進一步下挫。

And some analysts said it might be a while before the market recovers.

一些分析人士說，股市一時半會可能不會回漲。

“You rarely get a V-shaped bottom,” said John De Clue, an investment officer for U.S. Bank. “You usually bounce around for a while.”

“V形底很罕見，”美國銀行(U.S. Bank)投資主管約翰·德克魯(John De Clue)說。“反彈通常需要一段時間。”

The Dow Jones industrial average, a popular market barometer, lost 469.68 points, or 2.84 percent, on Tuesday, to close at 16,058.35. The index is more than 12 percent below its nominal high, reached in May. The technology-heavy Nasdaq composite index dropped 2.94 percent on the day, and is down 11 percent from its recent high.

本週二收盤時，常用指標道瓊斯工業平均指數報收16058.35點，跌469.68點，跌幅2.84%。與在今年5月達成的名義高位相比，該指數的跌幅超過了12%。以科技股爲主的納斯達克綜合指數當天下挫2.94%，從近期高位下跌了11%。

Investors are now scouring the horizon for events that drive the markets up or down.

投資者目前正在密切關注股市的利好或利空消息。

Looming at the end of this week is the release of the United States jobs numbers. If the government figures on Friday show that employment growth has remained strong, investors may be encouraged that developments overseas will not do too much harm to the American economy. On the other hand, a robust jobs number may also lead investors to conclude that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this month, rather than wait longer.

美國就業數據將於週末發佈。如果政府本週五的數據顯示就業增長依然強勁，投資者可能會受到鼓勵，認爲海外發生的事情不會對美國經濟造成太大損害。另一方面，穩健的就業人數也可能會讓投資者覺得，美聯儲將在本月加息，而不是等待更長的時間。

“The jobs numbers on Friday will be really important,” said Edward J. Perkin, chief equity investment officer at Eaton Vance Management. “It will determine Fed policy one way or another.” If the Fed decides to raise rates this month, it will most likely announce the move after monetary policy meetings scheduled for Sept. 16 and 17.

“週五公佈的就業數據真的非常重要，”伊頓萬斯管理公司(Eaton Vance Management)首席股本投資官愛德華·J·佩爾金(Edward J. Perkin)說。“這會以某種方式決定美聯儲的政策。”如果美聯儲決定本月提高利率，他們可能會在9月16號、17號舉行完貨幣政策會議之後宣佈消息。

The prospect of a September rise in interest rates has worried many economists and investors. In particular, they assert that the low level of inflation in the United States is a sign that the economy is still quite vulnerable to a slowdown.

9月利率可能會升高，這讓很多經濟學家及投資者感到擔憂。特別是因爲，他們斷定美國的低通脹說明經濟仍舊相當容易出現減速。

In a speech in New York on Tuesday, Eric S. Rosengren, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, highlighted that inflation numbers were well below the Fed’s target of 2 percent. Mr. Rosengren, who is an alternate member of the Fed’s committee on interest rates, also suggested that a weaker global economy and turmoil in the markets might make reaching that level harder.

波士頓聯邦儲備銀行(Federal Reserve Bank of Boston)行長埃裏克·S·羅森格倫(Eric S. Rosengren)週二在紐約講話時強調，通脹數據遠低於美聯儲2%的目標。羅森格倫是美聯儲利率委員會的候補委員，他還表示，全球經濟的疲軟和市場的動盪可能使得這個目標更難以完成。

“Given the low wage and price inflation data seen to date, and increased uncertainty about global growth, it will be particularly important for monetary-policy makers to closely monitor and depend on incoming data,” he said.

他說，“鑑於到目前爲止看到的低工資、物價膨脹數據，以及對全球增長的不確定性的增加，對貨幣政策制定者來說，尤其重要的是密切關注和依賴接下來得到的數據。”

Even if the Fed decides not to increase rates this month, further problems in China and elsewhere could make investors reluctant to jump back into the stock market.

即便美聯儲決定不在本月提高利率，中國及其他地方出現的更多問題可能會致使投資者不願迴歸股市。

On Tuesday, a report from Beijing showed that Chinese manufacturing activity had slipped in August to a three-year low, with both current production and new orders falling. That added to fears that the world’s second-largest economy, after that of the United States, may be slowing more than analysts had believed.

週二，北京發佈的一份報告顯示，中國8月份的製造業活動跌至三年來最低水平，當前生產和新訂單都不斷減少。這加劇了相關擔憂，即僅次於美國的世界第二大經濟體經濟發展放緩的程度，高於分析人士的預測。

Christine Lagarde, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, warned on Tuesday that the world economy would most likely expand at only a moderate pace and would probably be weaker than the I.M.F. forecast two months ago.

國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)總裁克里斯蒂娜·拉加德(Christine Lagarde)週二警告稱，世界經濟可能只會以適度的速度擴張，發展形勢可能不及該組織兩個月前做出的預測。

“Asia as a region is still expected to lead global growth,” she said in a speech in Jakarta, Indonesia. “But even here, the pace is turning out slower than expected — with the risk that it may slow even further given the recent spike in global risk aversion and financial market volatility.”

“亞洲作爲一個區域，仍將引領全球經濟增長，”她在印度尼西亞雅加達發表講話時說。“但即便在亞洲，增長速度也變得不及預期，鑑於最近全球風險規避的劇增，以及金融市場的波動，經濟增長可能會進一步放緩。”

The sell-offs in global markets started soon after China unexpectedly devalued its currency, the renminbi, on Aug. 11. Analysts at the time said the move could bolster Chinese exports by making them cheaper in other currencies. It was also expected to reduce Chinese imports, since foreign goods and services would cost more in renminbi.

在中國於8月11日出人意料地降低人民幣價值不久後，全球股市開始大跌。分析人士當時表示，此舉會促使以其他貨幣定價的中國商品的價格下滑，促進中國的出口產業。這也會減少中國的進口量，因爲外國商品和服務會花費更多人民幣。

Both outcomes, however, could affect countries with economies that rely heavily on exports. As result, such countries may decide to further devalue their currencies to regain competitiveness with China. The high stakes of such rivalries were made clear on Tuesday when South Korea reported export figures for August that were well below expectations.

然而，這兩種後果可能會影響那些嚴重依賴出口的國家。因此，此類國家可能決定進一步促使貨幣貶值，以恢復競爭力，與中國展開競爭。韓國在週二報告稱8月份的出口數據遠低於預期，說明了此類競爭的高風險性。

In China, the Shanghai composite index fell 1.23 percent on Tuesday, leaving it almost 40 percent below its recent high.

在中國，上證綜合指數本週二跌1.23%，與近期高點相比，跌幅近40%。

In contrast with past periods of turbulence, this one has not so far spurred a fierce rally in the 10-year Treasury note, a safe-haven investment. Its yield fell slightly to 2.16 percent on Tuesday from 2.21 percent on Monday. Its price went up 16/32, to 98 19/32.

與之前的震盪行情相反，本次震盪尚未導致避險投資10年期國債的激烈反彈。它的收益率從本週一的2.21%小幅下滑至本週二的2.16%。其價格漲16/32，至98 19/32。

Adding to the nervousness on Tuesday, the price of oil fell after a strong rally in recent days. The benchmark crude contract in New York declined $3.79, or 7.7 percent, to $45.41. Over time, a lower price might signal less demand for oil as economies slow.

石油價格在近日的一波強勁反彈之後，也在週二出現下跌，加劇了當日的市場緊張情緒。紐約基準原油期貨價格下跌3.79美元，至45.41美元，跌幅7.7%。從較長的期間來看，石油價格下滑可能意味着經濟體的需求減緩。

The Vix index, a measure of volatility in the S.&P. 500 that is often called Wall Street’s fear gauge, jumped 10 percent, but it is still well below last week’s high.

VIX指數衡量的是標準普爾500指數的波動性，通常被稱爲華爾街的恐懼指標，週二該指數躍升10%，但仍遠低於上週的高點。

In another sign that investors remain pessimistic, European shares declined despite an official report on Tuesday showing that the jobless rate in the eurozone had slipped by 0.2 of a percentage point in July, to 10.9 percent — the first time it had sunk below 11 percent since early 2012. While that still leaves about 17.5 million people classified as unemployed, it suggests a modest economic recovery in the bloc.

另一個表明投資者依然悲觀的跡象是，儘管週二的數據顯示，歐元區7月份的失業率下降0.2個百分點，至10.9%——這是自2012年初以來，它第一次降到11%以下——但歐股仍然出現下跌。雖然歐洲仍有約1750萬人被歸爲失業者，但該指標表示經濟出現了小幅復甦。

The major European indexes all closed the day 2 to 3 percent lower. In London, the FTSE 100 fell 3 percent, while the CAC 40 in Paris ended down 2.4 percent.

歐洲主要股指當天全線下跌2-3%。倫敦的FTSE 100指數收跌3%，而巴黎CAC 40指數下跌了2.4%。