滬市暴跌引發多空之爭

Fevered rallies and dramatic falls go with the territory of investing in mainland China. But even by Shanghai’s wild standards, yesterday’s plunge was one to remember.

就投資中國內地股市而言，亢奮性反彈和戲劇性下跌堪稱家常便飯。但即使按照上海的狂野標準，昨日的暴跌也是令人難忘的。

By the close of trading, the Shanghai Composite had tumbled 7.7 per cent — its biggest fall in five years — erasing all its January gains. Having been the best performing market in the world last year, China’s volatile streak has been swiftly exposed once more.

上證綜指收跌7.7%，創五年來最大單日跌幅，並一舉抹去1月全部漲幅。在去年表現領銜全球之後，中國股市很快再度暴露出波動性較高的一面。

The immediate trigger was a move by the China Securities Regulatory Commission to clamp down on margin lending at the big brokerages, which all saw their stocks down by the daily limit of 10 per cent. Borrowing to invest in equities has been a key driver of Shanghai’s charge upwards, with margin financing almost tripling between June and December to hit Rmb767bn ($124bn) last week.

直接導火線是中國證監會(CSRC)出臺整治大型券商不規範融資融券業務的舉措。這些券商的股票全部跌停（達到單日下跌10%的限度）。借款投資股票的行爲是上海股市此輪漲勢的關鍵推動因素之一，融資額在去年6月至12月期間增加近兩倍，上週達到7670億元人民幣（合1240億美元）。

Hong Hao, strategist at Bank of Communications, described the curb on margin trading as a “nasty surprise”, and one that could send the market into a tailspin. “With less incremental liquidity flow into stocks and damped sentiment, the market will correct in the near term, and the move can be violent,” Mr Hong wrote in a note to clients.

交通銀行(Bank of Communications)策略師洪灝形容整治融資交易是一個“令人不快的意外”，而且可能導致市場急轉直下。“隨着流入股票的增量流動性減少，情緒受到抑制，市場將在短期內調整，震盪可能相當劇烈，”洪灝在發給客戶的一份簡報中表示。

Separately on Friday, the banking regulator issued draft rules that would limit the use of intercompany loans. Loans between non-financial companies, in which a bank serves as intermediary, have exploded in recent years, with new loans hitting Rmb2.5tn in 2014. Local media reports say some of those funds have flowed into the stock market.

此外，中國銀監會(CBRC)上週五頒佈限制使用公司間貸款的規則草案。近年來，由銀行扮演中介角色的非金融公司之間的貸款出現爆炸式增長，2014年新增貸款達到2.5萬億元人民幣。中國媒體稱，這其中有一部分資金流入了股市。

The question now facing investors is whether the market can bounce back quickly without more credit-fuelled speculation. Many are bullish, seeing the new regulations as simply a stress test for the market.

目前投資者面臨的問題是，在沒有更多信貸助燃的投機行爲的情況下，市場能否迅速反彈？對此很多人看法樂觀，認爲新規定只是市場遭遇的一次壓力測試。

Jin Mi, tactical trading analyst at China Merchants Securities, a top 10 brokerage by assets, says the CSRC was sending “a warning to the market against excessive optimism”. “Almost no investors believe this is the end of the party,” he writes in a report.

按資產排名躋身於中國十大券商之列的招商證券(China Merchants Securities)的戰術交易分析師靳謎（音）表示，中國證監會“向市場發出了一個警告，反對樂觀過頭”。他在一份報告中寫道，“幾乎沒有投資者認爲這標誌着派對結束。”

Many analysts believe Shanghai’s bull run is a government-induced phenomenon, designed to give Chinese savers an alternative to the wobbly housing market or risky shadow banking products. That has drawn in millions of retail punters, who have been opening new trading accounts at a record pace.

許多分析師認爲，此輪上海牛市本來就是政府引發的現象，旨在爲中國儲戶提供一條投資渠道，使他們無需依賴岌岌可危的樓市或者高風險的影子銀行產品。股市上漲引來了數以百萬計的散戶，新開交易賬戶的速度創下新高。

“The government has been urging people to buy stocks, which gives people a sense of a put on the market,” says David Cui, strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

“政府一直在敦促人們買股票，這給人們一個市場有（官方）托盤的感覺，”美銀美林(BofAML)股票策略師崔偉(David Cui)表示。

November’s rate cut by the People’s Bank of China — the first since 2012 — appeared further confirmation that Beijing had encouraged a shift into the stock market. With that backdrop, yesterday’s tumble could be a case of letting off steam rather than a fatal blow to sentiment.

去年11月，中國央行自2012年以來首次降息，似乎進一步證實北京方面鼓勵人們轉投股市。在這樣的背景下，昨日的暴跌可能相當於放掉一些泡沫，而不是對市場情緒的致命打擊。

“We most likely will enter a consolidation phase in the coming weeks,” says Francois Perrin, head of Greater China equities at BNP Paribas Investment Partners. “But there is a very strong commitment of the Chinese government to continue to have the market going up.”

“我們很可能會在未來幾周進入一個盤整階段，”法國巴黎投資管理公司(BNP Paribas Investment Partners)大中華區股票部主管弗朗索瓦•佩蘭(Francois Perrin)表示。“但是中國政府有一個非常強有力的承諾，那就是推動市場上行。”

But China’s equity bears have seen the dark clouds gathering for a while. Mr Cui says banks and brokers have been “knocking down the door” to lend on margin, leaving investors vulnerable to an abrupt switch in sentiment.

但是，看跌中國股市的人士看到烏雲聚集已經有一段時間了。美銀美林的崔偉表示，各家銀行和券商迫不及待地提供融資交易，使投資者在市場情緒突變之際陷於脆弱處境。

“When you have so leveraged a position, when everybody tries to exit at the same time, liquidity disappears because there’s going to be only sellers and no buyers,” says Mr Cui, who warned in early December that a “fast and furious” sell-off was due.

“當你有這種槓桿頭寸的時候，當大家都在同一時間試圖退場時，流動性就會消失，因爲此時只有賣家，而沒有買家，”崔偉表示。他曾在12月初警告，中國股市可能出現一次“快速而劇烈的”拋售。

Other signals had been suggesting a rally under stress. Price gaps between Hong Kong and Shanghai listings of Chinese companies had jumped to their widest in five years, something that has rarely endured at such levels for long.

此前有其他信號暗示，此輪漲勢已經處於壓力之下。在香港和上海兩地上市的中國企業股價差異躍升至五年來最大水平，而以往這樣的股價之差很少會持久。

While the Shanghai Composite has soared in the past six months, Chinese shares in Hong Kong have remained in second gear. “There is a clear divergence between where the [domestic] share market is going and where fundamentals are going,” adds Mr Cui. “At a certain point, you know this gap is probably going to snap back.”

上證綜指在過去六個月期間飆升的同時，在香港上市的中國內地股票卻一直表現平平。“內地股市走向與基本面因素明顯分道揚鑣，”崔偉補充說。“在某個時候，你知道這個差距可能一下子消失。”