滬深兩市市值蒸發近7670億美元

Not content with a 6.4 per cent tumble last Friday to cap off the worst week since the financial crisis, the Shanghai Composite chose to push the envelope today, chalking up a 7.4 per cent fall to 4,192.88.

上週五，上證綜指收跌6.4%，爲金融危機以來表現最糟糕的一週畫上了句號。今日，該指數選擇挑戰一下極限，以7.4%這一更大的跌幅收盤，最終收至4192.88點。

At an intra-day low of 4,139.53, the index was down as much as 8.57 per cent.

該指數今日盤中一度跌至4139.53點，跌幅高達8.57%。

The 7.4 per cent fall now ranks as the second-biggest fall this year for Shanghai stocks, behind a 7.7 per cent plunge on January 19. It also makes the cut as the fifth-biggest daily fall since 2000 (see table). The index is now down 18.8 per cent since a multi-year closing high of 5,166.35.

上證綜指今日的下跌創下今年以來上海股市第二大單日跌幅（1月19日下跌7.7%），也是2000年以來的第五大單日跌幅（見圖表）。上證綜指現在已較5166.35點的多年收盤價高點下跌了18.8%。

That leaves the index very close to entering bear market territory, defined as a decline of 20 per cent from a peak.

該指數非常接近於進入熊市，熊市的定義是自峯值水平下跌20%。

On an intra-day basis, the Shanghai Composite did enter a bear market, with a fall of 20.06 per cent from an intra-day high of 5,178.191 on June 12 to today's intra-day low. On a closing basis, the level for a bear market is 4,133.08.

按盤中價格計算，上證綜指其實已步入熊市，從6月12日5178.19點的盤中高點到今日的盤中低點，跌幅已達20.06%。按收盤價計算，要達到熊市標準，收盤點位需要達到4133.08點。

The Shenzhen Composite is already growling, down 20.3 per cent from its June 12 record close of 3,140.663. The tech-heavy index closed 7.87 per cent lower at 2,502.96 for its biggest one-day drop since June 10, 2008, and its third-biggest one-day fall since 2000 (see table).

深證綜指已從6月12日3140.66點的創紀錄收盤點位下跌20.3%。成份股中科技股衆多的該指數今日收跌7.87%，至2502.96點，爲自2008年6月10日以來最大單日跌幅，也是自2000年以來第三大單日跌幅。

For the week, the Shanghai Composite was down 6.37 per cent and the Shenzhen Composite was down 8.72 per cent, for the first back-to-back weekly declines since early February.

本週，上證綜指累計下跌6.37%，深證綜指累計下跌8.72%，這是自2月初以來首次出現連續兩週下跌。

On a back-of-the-envelope calculation (relax, I'm using a spreadsheet), today's fall wiped a combined $767bn in market capitalisation from the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges.

粗略算來，今天的下跌導致滬深兩市市值蒸發了7670億美元。

During China's bull market of 2006-07, the Shanghai Composite suffered six corrections greater than 10 per cent (see squiggle chart). That includes a decline from mid-October to the end of November 2007 that wiped off 21.15 per cent. Although the index managed to recover some poise after that, the bear market had begun, and the index then sank for the next 12 months as the financial crisis took hold.

2006-07年的中國牛市期間，上證綜指曾經歷6次跌幅超過10%的調整（見圖表），其中包括從2007年10月中旬到11月底的一輪下跌行情，那次的跌幅達21.15%。儘管該指數在那之後有所企穩，但滬市卻開始步入熊市，隨着金融危機站穩腳跟，該指數在接下來的12個月裏一路下跌。

In other words, during that previous bull market, there was no sustainable recovery from a correction as deep as the one Chinese investors are experiencing now. It remains to be seen whether that pattern will play out this time around.

換句話說，在那次牛市中，中國投資者在遭遇和這次同等幅度的調整後，並沒有迎來可持續的反彈。這一次，這一幕是否會重演，還有待觀察。