廣發證券香港上市募資36億美元
HONG KONG — Ordinary Chinese investors are doubling down on stocks, pushing the Shanghai market to seven-year highs — and their brokers are cashing in.
The securities companies that have facilitated the stock market boom are capitalizing on their own ballooning share prices by issuing huge amounts of new stock, raising billions of dollars in the process.
這些促成了股市繁榮的證券公司，趁着自身股價不斷上漲的時機，發行了大量新股，進而募集了數十億美元的資金。On Tuesday, GF Securities, one of China’s biggest brokerage firms, raised $3.6 billion in an initial public offering in Hong Kong, the biggest new listing in Asia so far this year.
週二，中國最大的券商之一廣發證券在香港上市，募集了36億美元資金，成爲了亞洲今年到目前爲止規模最大的首次公開募股(IPO)。
Earlier in March, Orient Securities, Citigroup’s brokerage partner in mainland China, raised $1.6 billion in a Shanghai listing. And in February, shareholders of Haitong Securities, another big Chinese brokerage firm, approved its plan to raise $3.9 billion by selling additional shares in Hong Kong.
3月早些時候，花旗集團(Citigroup)在中國大陸的券商夥伴東方證券在上海上市，募集了16億美元。2月，另一家中國大型券商海通證券的股東，通過了在香港增發股票募集39億美元的方案。Many analysts see a bubble in China’s share rally. Stocks are rising even as the economy grows at its slowest pace in decades, and more people are piling into the market. Investors opened a record 1.7 million new share-trading accounts last week. Increasingly, they are turning to margin financing, or borrowing money from brokerage firms to buy stocks — raising the risk of even steeper losses for ordinary investors if the boom goes bust.
許多分析師認爲，中國目前的股市上漲存在泡沫。股市上漲的同時，中國經濟增速降到了數十年來的最低水平，此外越來越多的人在涌入股市。上週，中國新增股市開戶數達170萬，創下了歷史新高。他們越來越多地轉向融資融券，即從券商那裏借錢購買股票。這加劇了一種風險：股市的繁榮消退後，普通股民會蒙受更巨大的損失。The problem with bubbles is anticipating how much they can swell before bursting. Chinese investors appear to be making a counterintuitive bet that a slowing economy is good for markets because it will prompt the leadership in Beijing to respond with measures to stimulate growth. On Monday, in an effort to bolster the slumping housing market, the central bank lowered the minimum down payment on mortgages for second homes to 40 percent, from 60 percent or 70 percent previously, causing a surge in real estate shares.
泡沫的問題在於，破裂之前預計能膨脹到何種程度。中國投資者似乎不同尋常地認爲，經濟放緩對股市有利，因爲它將促使北京的領導層採取刺激增長的措施。週一，爲了提振低迷的樓市，央行將貸款購買二套房的首付比例從60%或70%降到了40%。“The sharp drop-off in economic activity since the start of the year, along with lower inflation, will encourage greater action from the People’s Bank of China over the coming months,” Chang Liu, a China economist at Capital Economics, wrote Tuesday in a research report, referring to the central bank. “This will most likely push equities even higher this year,” he added. “However, with markets increasingly divorced from economic fundamentals, we expect a partial reversal of these gains in 2016.”
“自年初以來經濟活動急劇放緩，加上通脹水平下降，將促使中國人民銀行在未來幾個月採取更大的行動，”凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)的中國經濟分析師Chang Liu週二在一份研究報告中寫道。中國人民銀行即中國央行。“這很有可能在今年把股價推得更高，”他接着說。“不過，隨着股市與經濟基本面逐漸分離，我們預計這些漲幅在2016年會出現部分回落。”Shanghai’s benchmark share index was the best performer in the world last year. And since Nov. 21, when the central bank began its current cycle of easing monetary policy by cutting interest rates, Shanghai stocks have risen 50 percent. On Monday, the index rose to 3,786.6 points, a level not seen since early 2008, before the financial crisis. Shares slipped 1 percent lower on Tuesday.
去年，上海的基準股指是全世界表現最好的。去年11月21日，央行降低利率，開啓了當前這一輪寬鬆的貨幣政策。自那時以來，上海股市已上漲了50%。週一，股指攀升至3786.6點，這是金融危機前的2008年年初以來的最高點。週二，股指下滑1%。The surge is precarious because it is increasingly being driven by ordinary investors. According to Tom Orlik, a Bloomberg economist, the results of a recent investment survey conducted by a Chinese university showed that two-thirds of all new investors in China’s stock markets had completed only the equivalent of elementary or junior high school before leaving school. That compared with a dropout rate of about a quarter among existing investors. The survey was conducted at the end of last year by the Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, in Sichuan Province, and covered 4,000 households across the country.
此次大漲的基礎並不穩固，因爲它越來越多地受到普通投資者的支撐。彭博(Bloomberg)的經濟學家歐樂鷹(Tom Orlik)稱，中國一所大學前不久進行的一項投資調查的結果顯示，中國股市的投資新手中，三分之二的人僅完成了相當於小學或初中的學業，就離開了校園。與之形成對比的是，現有投資者中的輟學率約爲四分之一。調查是由位於四川省的西南財經大學在去年年底進行的，覆蓋全國4000個家庭。China’s securities regulator has recently sought to crack down on market manipulation and curtail the excesses of the rally. In January, it announced a temporary ban on new margin financing at several of the country’s biggest brokerage firms, sending shares plunging.
近期，中國的證券監管機構嘗試打擊市場操縱，遏制行情的過度上漲。今年1月，該機構宣佈了一項臨時禁令，禁止中國最大的幾家證券公司開展新的融資融券業務，致使股票驟跌。But markets have since recovered, and borrowing from brokerage firms continues to fuel the increase. Outstanding margin financing has risen to more than 1.4 trillion renminbi, or about $230 billion, up from about 1 trillion renminbi at the start of the year.
但後來行情已經回升，從證券公司借款的做法依然在推動股票上漲。融資融券餘額已經從年初的大約1萬億元人民幣，增至逾1.4萬億元。That has been good news to brokerage firms, whose own shares are among the best performers in the rally. GF Securities, which is already listed in China’s secondary market based in Shenzhen, was able to price its Hong Kong I.P.O. on Tuesday at 18.85 Hong Kong dollars per share, at the top of the marketed price range, according to a person with knowledge of the matter who declined to be identified because the information was not yet public.
對證券公司來說，這是個好消息。在這一輪迴升中，表現最好的股票中就有它們自己的股票。據一名知情人士透露，週二，已經在深圳的中國二級市場上市的廣發證券，成功地將香港IPO的發行價定在18.85港元，這是其價格區間的上限。因爲消息尚未公開，該人士拒絕公開身份。The company raised 27.9 billion Hong Kong dollars, or about $3.6 billion. That ranks as the second-biggest I.P.O. globally this year, after that of the Spanish airport operator Aena, which raised around $4.8 billion in a listing in Madrid in February, according to data from the financial information provider Dealogic.
該公司籌集到了279億港幣，約合36億美元。這個數字使這筆交易成爲今年全球規模第二大的IPO，僅次於西班牙的機場運營商Aena。金融信息供應商Dealogic的數據顯示，Aena今年2月在馬德里上市時，籌集到了大約48億美元。GF Securities shares are scheduled to begin trading on April 10.
廣發證券的股票定於4月10日開始交易。GF Capital, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bocom International, Deutsche Bank and Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch unit were the lead underwriters of the listing and were among the 22 banks involved in marketing the deal.
廣發融資(GF Capital)、高盛(Goldman Sachs)、摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)、交銀國際、德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)和美銀美林(Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch)是此次上市的主承銷商。包括它們在內的22家銀行參與了銷售。
