全球經濟疲軟 滬港通的未來仍可期

Global investors had the chance to do something completely new last week – put up to $10.5bn into the Shanghai stock market without a special licence.

國際投資者上週開始有機會做一項全新的投資——無需取得專門牌照，就可以直接投資中國上海股市，每日總投資額度爲130億元人民幣。

But when opportunity knocked, many decided not to answer. After five days of trading through Stock Connect – a new scheme linking the Hong Kong and Shanghai markets for the first time – just $4.3bn had been sent into China.

然而，當機會到來的時候，許多人卻不肯出手。在滬港通啓動5天后，僅有43億美元資金通過該機制流入中國內地。

In the other direction, Chinese investors showed almost no enthusiasm for buying Hong Kong-listed shares. On Friday, mainland buyers used less than 2 per cent of their daily Rmb10.5bn ($1.7bn) quota.

反過來，內地投資者對購買在香港上市的股票更是顯得毫無熱情。港股通每日投資限額爲105億元人民幣（合17億美元），但上週五隻使用了不到2%。

In his blog, Charles Li, chief executive of the Hong Kong stock exchange, said he was “obviously a bit disappointed” with the weak volumes so soon after launch, but urged investors to look beyond the immediate horizon.

香港交易所行政總裁李小加(Charles Li)在自己的博客上寫道，滬港通甫一推出成交就如此冷清，的確讓他“略感失望”，但他敦促投資者把眼光放得長遠一些。

Analysts have also been quick to highlight the broader significance of the cross-border link, saying teething problems need not indicate a project doomed to fail.

分析人士也紛紛強調這項跨境連通機制在更廣泛層面的意義，表示起步時期出現問題不表明整個項目註定會失敗。

By allowing global investors – including hedge funds – free and ready access to one of the world’s largest equity markets, China has taken a step to integrating domestic shares into the global trading system.

滬港通允許包括對衝基金在內的全球投資者自由、方便地進入全球最大的股票市場之一，標誌着中國朝着將國內股票市場融入全球交易體系邁出了一步。

“Everyone was keen to get day one out of the way smoothly. Now the focus moves on to how to develop it,” says Jessica Morrison, head of market structure at Deutsche Bank in Asia.

“每個人之前都希望第一天起就順順利利的，現在則把注意力轉向今後如何發展，”德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)亞洲區市場結構主管傑茜卡•莫里森(Jessica Morrison)表示。

Many long-only funds have been slow to join so far. The tax rates due on investments made through the scheme were only clarified on the Friday before the system went live, leaving many fund managers unprepared at launch.

許多采取多頭策略的基金到目前還沒有進入滬港通。相關稅率在項目啓動前的那個週五才明確下來，這讓許多基金經理對滬港通啓動沒有做好準備。

Various other regulatory and legal issues have yet to be resolved, which has limited early participation from some institutional investors. How those problems are overcome will help determine the speed at which new investor demand comes online.

在監管和法規方面，也還有許多問題尚未得到解決，這也限制了一些機構投資者在早期參與交易。如何克服這些問題，將部分決定新投資需求多快能出現。

Expectations of frantic early trading may also have been based on misplaced assumptions that investors would pour through the connect to exploit price gaps between dual-listed stocks.

對早期交易火爆的預期可能還建立在一種錯誤的假設上，即認爲投資者會向滬港通傾注大量資金，利用在兩地上市的股票的差價謀利。

When Stock Connect was announced in April, Shanghai shares traded at a discount to their Hong Kong peers, offering the potential for arbitrage for those with access to both markets. However, by the time of launch, domestic stocks were trading at a premium, which may have dulled any sense of urgency.

今年4月建立滬港通機制的消息剛出來時，兩地上市公司的A股價格低於港股價格，爲可以進入兩地股市的投資者提供了套利的可能。然而，到滬港通正式啓動時，此類公司的A股價格已高於港股價格，這可能也降低了投資的衝動。

One question is whether index providers – such as MSCI and FTSE – see the Stock Connect as a sufficient step forward in market access terms to add Shanghai shares to global benchmark indices. Any move that way would prompt fund managers tracking those indices to allocate billions of dollars of fresh investment into China – something only possible through the connect.

眼下的一個問題是，各大股市指數提供商——包括摩根士丹利資本國際(MSCI)和富時集團(FTSE)等——是否認爲，滬港通是中國股市在市場準入方面的一大進步，使得它們可以將A股納入全球基準指數。只要它們這樣做，就將促使追蹤這些指數的基金管理公司將大量新資金配置到中國市場——目前唯有借道滬港通才能做到這一點。

“As bridge builders, our biggest concern is that the bridge is built, it is safe and sound, and it is ready for traffic,” wrote Mr Li on his blog. “As people become more familiar with it and have more reasons to cross, traffic will inevitably increase. Overall, this is a long-term scheme and we shouldn’t get too hung up on the initial numbers.”

“作爲橋樑的建造者，我們最關心的是，橋建好了，它是安全可靠的，它可以通行了，”李小加在他的博客中寫道，“隨着人們越來越熟悉它，有了更多的理由去過橋，客流量必然就會增加。總體上看，這是一項長期機制，我們不應太過關注最初的流量。”

Yesterday offered a taste of why the Stock Connect could yet prove a vital new channel for investors. On Friday, the People’s Bank of China cut benchmark interest rates for the first time since 2012. The market reaction was a surge in Chinese stocks, with the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite markets both rising almost 2 per cent, while mainland shares in Hong Kong – as measured by the Hang Seng China Enterprises index – rallied 3.8 per cent.

昨日，滬港通展示了它有望成爲一條重要的新投資通道的潛力。上週五，中國央行(PBoC)自2012年來首次下調基準利率。股市應聲大漲，恆生指數(Hang Seng)和上證綜指(Shanghai Composite)漲幅均接近2%，而在港上市的內地企業——恆生中國企業指數(Hang Seng China Enterprises Index)——上漲了3.8%。

The move saw activity through the Stock Connect leap from Friday’s relative quiet, with Rmb6bn going north into China, the most since day one. But southbound trade withered – with less than $10m of orders in the morning session. China’s retail investors – who dominate domestic share trading – were probably focused on the soaring Shanghai market, where some property, insurance and brokerage stocks saw double-digit gains following the rate cut.

不同於上週五的冷清，週一經由滬港通渠道的投資活動大爲升溫，流入內地的資金達60億元人民幣。但南下購買港股的交易清淡，早盤訂單額不足1000萬美元。作爲中國內地股市的主力軍，散戶投資者可能關注滬市的大漲行情——地產、保險和券商股在降息後漲幅都達到兩位數。

The big difference this time round was that global investors were also able to tag along for the ride thanks to the Shanghai-Hong Kong “through train”.

這次行情的很大不同在於，鑑於滬港“直通車”的開通，國際投資者現在也能順勢從A股大漲中獲益。