港股狂跌令人質疑滬港通

Since Wednesday, shares in three huge Hong Kong-listed companies have lost half their value. Investors in Hanergy Thin Film, Goldin Financial and Goldin Properties are nursing a combined $36bn in paper losses, without a single fundamental reason, such as a big announcement, to explain the slide.

自週三以來，三家香港上市大公司的股票市值遭遇腰斬。漢能薄膜(HTF)、高銀金融(Goldin Financial)以及高銀地產(Goldin Properties)的投資者們遭受的賬面損失共計360億美元，但迄今沒有任一基本面原因（比如一項重大聲明）來解釋這種暴跌。

The plunges have highlighted the Hong Kong market’s vulnerability to big share price moves and raised questions on whether a new direct connection between Hong Kong and the volatile Shanghai exchange is changing the dynamic of the southern market.

此番暴跌凸顯了香港股市在股價巨幅波動方面的脆弱性，而且引發了這樣的問題：去年才啓動的連通香港與波動較大的上海股市的滬港通，是否正在改變香港股市的格局？

Up to now, Hong Kong Exchange, which operates the equities market, and its regulator, the Securities and Futures Commission, have not found it necessary to intervene when individual stock prices race rapidly upward or plunge precipitously to earth. But the increasing presence of retail customers and momentum investors, many of them from the mainland, may force a rethink.

迄今爲止，運營香港股市的香港交易所(Hong Kong Exchange)及其監管機構香港證券及期貨事務監察委員會(Securities and Futures Commission，證監會)，尚未發現在個別股價暴漲或急跌之時有必要進行干預。但日益增多的散戶和動量投資者（其中很多來自中國內地）入場可能迫使當局進行反思。

At issue is the ability of thinly-traded penny stocks to soar, garnering market capitalisations that ostensibly put them into the big league. All three companies that dropped this week had seen their prices more than quadruple in the past six months. HTF and Goldin Financial were ranked as the 20th and 28th biggest companies in the territory last month.

問題在於交易量很小的細價股（指每股低於一元的低額股票——譯者注）有能力飆升，獲得表面上把它們推入大型股行列的市值。本週暴跌的三隻股票在過去六個月裏上漲超過四倍。上月，漢能薄膜與高銀金融在香港的市值排名分別爲第20位和28位。

“We have a legitimate market for real companies, then we have bubbles like Goldin and Hanergy which provide an outlet for people’s gambling instincts,” said David Webb, a corporate governance activist in Hong Kong. “There were plenty of warning signs in both of these. If anyone has been buying, it’s been a bet that a greater fool would pay more for it later.”

“我們有一個面向真實企業的正當市場，然而我們也有像高銀和漢能這樣的泡沫，它們爲人們的投機本能提供一個出口，”香港公司治理維權人士大衛•韋伯(David Webb)說。“這兩家公司都有很多警示信號。如果有人近來在購買它們的股票，他們是在押注之後會有更大的傻瓜花更多的錢接手。”

Unlike other big markets, Hong Kong does not have “circuit breakers”, where trading is halted in a rapidly moving stock to prevent free-falls or rocketing prices.

與其它大型股市不同，香港沒有“熔斷機制”，即股價迅速波動的股票可以被暫停交易，以防止暴跌或暴漲。

Shanghai, for example, has a 10 per cent daily limit on moves up and down. Tokyo prevents traders entering prices outside preset limits. New York introduced circuit breakers following the market crashes of 1987 and 1989.

例如，上海的股價單日漲跌幅度被限制在10%之內。東京禁止交易者在股價超出預設限值時買入。紐約在1987年和1989年的股市崩盤後引入了熔斷機制。

Some market participants believe that the linking of mainland retail investors to the Hong Kong market in November via the Shanghai Hong Kong Stock Connect may have made intervention more necessary. Retail traders are seen as more likely to pile into and out of rapidly moving stocks.

部分市場參與者認爲，內地散戶投資者經由去年11月啓動的滬港通機制進入香港股市，或許已使得干預變得更有必要。散戶交易者被認爲更有可能蜂擁買入或賣出股價快速變動的股票。

About 20 per cent of Hong Kong’s cash trading is still conducted by small investors, compared with 90 per cent in Shanghai and 2 per cent in New York.

香港約20%的現金交易仍由小投資者完成，在上海這一比例爲90%，而紐約爲2%。

Since March, HTF has featured in the top 10 most-traded stocks southbound through the stock connect more than any other company except Shanghai Electric.

自3月以來，在內地投資者通過滬港通追捧的前10大香港上市股票中，漢能一直是除了上海電氣(Shanghai Electric)之外交易量最大的股票。

On average, about half the value of HTF’s daily turnover comes through Stock Connect whereas for a blue-chip such as Ping An or Tencent, southbound trade accounts for less than 4 per cent of its value traded.

平均而言，漢能日交易量的約一半來自滬港通南下資金，而對中國平安(Ping An)或騰訊(Tencent)等藍籌股而言，南下資金只佔總交易量的不到4%。

“In reality these [Goldin and Hanergy] are third line stocks masquerading as first tier through their size. Given their gains and their thin liquidity they were always going to be vulnerable to big moves,” said Keith Pogson, head of Asia financial services at EY.

安永(EY)亞洲金融服務主管包凱(Keith Pogson)表示：“在現實中，這些（高銀和漢能）只能算是三流股票，它們藉助自己的規模假冒爲一流股票。鑑於近期漲幅巨大和流動性稀薄，它們總是容易遭遇大幅波動。”

Hong Kong is now considering introducing limited circuit breakers that impose a brief cooling off period for stocks that move sharply — a move backed by most major brokers.

香港正在考慮推出有限的“熔斷機制”，強制劇烈波動的股票有一段短暫的冷靜期，此舉得到了大多數主要券商的支持。

“The problem is that the Hong Kong market currently allows the momentum that can create mega caps,” said one bank equities trading head who supports the idea, in part because of the city’s large retail trading element.

一位支持該想法（部分原因是股市香港散戶較多）的銀行股票交易主管表示：“問題在於，香港市場目前允許可以創造大型股的動量。”

In the case of Goldin Financial, the rapid share price move may be exacerbated by the fact that most of its shares are held by a small number of people. Hong Kong, like most big stock markets, has a “free float” rule that requires companies to have 25 per cent of their shares available for trading by the public.

就高銀金融而言，該公司的大部分股份由一小部分人持有，這加劇了其股價的劇烈波動。與大多數大型股市一樣，香港實行“自由流通股”規則，要求公司拿出至少25%的股票供公衆交易。

But in March the SFC issued a “high concentration of shareholding” announcement for Goldin Financial, where it noted that although the company’s free float met the 25 per cent minimum, the stock was in reality held by 19 investors with only 1.42 per cent held by outsiders.

但在今年3月，香港證監會警告稱，高銀金融“股權高度集中”，它指出，儘管該公司的自由流通股份符合25%的最低標準，但該股實際上由19名投資者持有，只有1.42%的股份由外部人士持有。

The SFC has issued 10 such warnings so far this year, compared with 18 last year and 10 for all of 2013.

香港證監會今年迄今發佈了10宗此類警告，而去年發佈了18宗，2013年發佈了10宗。

Some investors also complain that the Hong Kong exchange and regulators should be tougher on companies that suspend trading in their shares for long periods of time, trapping investors.

一些投資者還抱怨稱，香港交易所和監管機構應該對那些長期停牌、套牢投資者的公司採取更爲嚴厲的措施。

A total of 37 companies, worth about $12bn have all been suspended for more than three months and many fear that HTF might join that list following its suspension, it its request, on Wednesday. HTF declined to comment on its plans, although its parent company, Hanergy Group, said in a statement that it was in “a good financial position with no overdue loans” and had not sold any of its 30.6bn shares in HTF

香港股市停牌3個月以上的公司總計有37家，市值總計約爲120億美元，許多人擔憂，在週三申請停牌之後，漢能薄膜可能加入這一名單。漢能薄膜拒絕就其計劃置評，儘管其母公司漢能集團(Hanergy Group)在一份聲明中表示，集團“資金狀況良好，沒有任何一筆貸款逾期”，對持有的306億股漢能薄膜也沒有任何減持套現行爲。

The SFC declined to comment on HTF and the two Goldin companies, following its policy of not commenting on individual stocks. The Hong Kong Exchange also did not comment.

香港證監會以不評論個股的政策爲由，拒絕評論漢能薄膜和兩家高銀公司。港交所也沒有置評。