數據表明 全球經濟復甦可能停滯

The world economy is beset by feeble growth and a recovery that is “weak, uneven and in danger of stalling yet again,” according to the latest Brookings Institution-Financial Times tracking index.

布魯金斯學會(Brookings Institution)/英國《金融時報》全球經濟復甦追蹤指標(Tracking Indexes for the Global Economic Recovery, TIGER)顯示，全球經濟增長乏力，復甦“疲弱、不均衡且可能再次停滯”。

In a publication ahead of the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank this week, the index provides sober reading, highlighting sluggish capital investment, falling industrial production and declining business confidence.

該指數發佈之際，國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)和世界銀行(World Bank)本週即將召開春季年會。該指數提供了冷靜的讀數，突顯出資本投資乏力、工業產量滑坡以及企業信心下滑。

The results of the index are likely to be reflected in IMF forecasts for the global economy on Tuesday, prompting Christine Lagarde, fund managing director, to warn of the need to be “alert”to global risks with growth “too low for too long”. The IMF is widely expected to revise its 3.4 per cent forecast for growth in 2016 down again.

該指數的結果可能會反映在IMF週二對全球經濟的預測上，這促使IMF總裁克里斯蒂娜•拉加德(Christine Lagarde)警告稱，有必要“警惕”經濟增長“長期過於緩慢”的全球風險。人們普遍預期IMF將再次下調其3.4%的2016年增長預測。

According to Professor Eswar Prasad, an economist at Brookings, the worst fears of a financial and economic crisis in January and February “might be over but after yet another year of tepid growth in 2015, the world economy in 2016 faces the unsettling prospect of more of the same”.

布魯金斯學會經濟學家埃斯瓦爾•普拉薩德(Eswar Prasad)表示，今年1月和2月對金融和經濟危機的最嚴重擔憂“可能已經退卻，但在2015年經歷了又一個增長乏力的年頭之後，2016年全球經濟將面臨同樣令人不安的前景。”

While the IMF has become more pessimistic about the outlook in recent weeks, the Brookings-FT Tiger index — Tracking Indicesfor the Global Economic Recovery — suggests there has been some stabilisation of current conditions after a big decline in growth rates in the second half of last year.

最近幾周，IMF對全球經濟前景更爲悲觀，但TIGER指數表明，在去年下半年經濟增速大幅下滑後，當前經濟狀況出現了一些企穩跡象。