中國經濟通縮陰雲未消散

China’s State Statistical Bureau will today release one of the most eagerly awaited numbers in modern macroeconomics — the first-quarter growth figure for what is, by one measure, already the world’s largest economy.

中國國家統計局將於今日公佈現代宏觀經濟學中最讓人期待的數字之一，即按照某種衡量標準已經是全球最大經濟體的中國經濟的第一季度增長數字。

The scramble for this data is such that on March 5 reporters appeared at the Great Hall of the People at 2.30am for the release of the government’s annual growth target — all for a few seconds jump on a number that moves markets.

要獲得中國經濟增長數據的競爭是如此激烈，以至於3月5日記者們在凌晨2時30分就趕到人民大會堂守候，等待中國政府發佈年度增長目標——即便只是爲了搶先幾秒鐘報道一個足以改變市場行情的數字。

What should we be watching for?

有什麼值得關注的看點？

One important number to watch will be net exports. Typically, this has little effect on growth as China needs to buy in raw materials to churn out what it ships overseas. Gavekal Dragonomics estimates that last year a relatively modest year-on-year increase in net exports deducted 0.3 percentage points from overall growth.

其中一個值得關注的重要數字將是淨出口。通常情況下，這對經濟增長影響不大，因爲中國需要購買原材料，以便生產它向海外輸出的製成品。龍洲經訊(Gavekal Dragonomics)估計，去年相對較小的淨出口同比增幅使整體經濟增長減少了0.3個百分點。

But the collapse in commodity prices — in part because of slowing growth in China — has pruned Beijing’s import bill, leading to record $60bn monthly trade surpluses in both January and February and a first quarter surplus six times larger than the same period last year.

但是，大宗商品價格的暴跌（部分原因就是中國經濟增長放緩）削減了中國的進口賬單，導致1月和2月都出現創紀錄的600億美元月度貿易順差，而第一季度的順差比去年同期大了6倍。

This surge in net exports will flatter China’s first-quarter growth figure, making it appear domestic demand is stronger than it is and adding to fears about deflation.

淨出口的這種激增將提振中國第一季度的增長數字，使內需顯得比實際更爲強勁，並加大人們對通縮的擔心。

So are deflation fears warranted?

那麼通縮恐懼有道理嗎？

Not according to government officials, who argue that inflation of just 1.4 per cent — much less than their 3 per cent target — reflects falling commodity prices abroad and bumper harvests at home. Food accounts for more than a third of China’s consumer price index.

按政府官員的說法是沒有必要感到恐懼的，他們提出，僅爲1.4%的通脹率（遠低於3%的目標）是由於海外不斷下降的大宗商品價格和國內的農作物好收成。食品佔中國消費價格指數(CPI)的三分之一以上。

But worries clearly persist. China’s central bank has cut benchmark interest rates twice over the past four months and trimmed commercial banks’ reserve requirements.

但人們的憂慮顯然揮之不去。中國央行已經在過去四個月兩次下調基準利率，還削減了商業銀行的存款準備金率。

Is the ‘new normal’ slow growth plus deflation?

“新常態”是慢速增長加上通縮嗎？

Possibly. Officials are confident these measures will help maintain growth at its so-called “new normal” of 7 per cent. But other economists fret about a scenario in which the economy continues its slow but steady descent despite repeated cuts in interest rates.

有可能。官員們相信，上述措施將有助於保持增長，達到7%的所謂“新常態”。但其他經濟學家擔心出現這樣一種情形：儘管一再下調利率，但經濟增長繼續緩慢而穩步地減速。

The International Monetary Fund, for example, predicts that China’s economy will expand 6.8 per cent this year and 6.5 per cent in 2016, with the latter figure potentially lower than India’s for the first time in decades.

例如，國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)預測，中國經濟今年將增長6.8%，明年將增長6.5%，後一個數字可能意味着中國經濟增幅幾十年來將首次低於印度。

Add in the Fed raising rates and is it a recipe for capital flight?

再加上美聯儲(Fed)加息，這會不會是成爲引發資本外逃的配方？

In the past a similar scenario has prompted China to occasionally hold the renminbi at a level many economists felt meant the currency was undervalued, to the dismay of the US.

以往，類似的情形有幾次促使中國將人民幣匯率控制在許多經濟學家覺得偏低的水平，這使美國不快。

For now, China is more focused on supporting its currency. Through the daily trading limits and other safeguards China has constructed around its managed currency, the central bank has struggled to arrest the renminbi’s slide against the dollar over recent months.

就目前而言，中國在更多側重於支持人民幣。通過每日交易浮動區間以及中國圍繞其有管理的匯率制度構建的其它保障措施，中國央行近幾個月來竭力遏止人民幣相對於美元走低。

That, Chinese officials argue, is more reflective of the dollar’s strength than any deliberate policy by Beijing.

中國官員們辯稱，人民幣兌美元匯率走低在更大程度上反映了美元的強勢，而非北京方面任何刻意的政策。

Officials say they would rather keep the currency rate stable, creating a survival-of-the-fittest environment in which only the most innovative of companies thrive, creating jobs and boosting the economy. If realised, that vision would be better than any state stimulus.

官員們表示，他們寧願保持匯率穩定，營造一個適者生存的環境，讓最具創新性的企業茁壯成長，從而創造就業，提振經濟。若能實現這一願景，將比任何政府刺激計劃更好。