基石的逆襲: 農民工決定中國經濟未來

China’s transformation into the “workshop of the world” just over a decade ago was powered by rural migrant workers earning less than their counterparts at the start of the UK’s industrial revolution in the 18th century as they produced consumer goods for shopping malls worldwide. Now, in a reversal set to drive China’s next big economic evolution, an estimated 220m migrant workers are becoming potent consumers in their own right.

推動中國在10多年前成爲“世界工廠”的是農民工。他們爲世界各地的商場生產消費者產品，而他們的工資比18世紀英國工業革命開始時英國工人的工資還要低。如今，這個估計人數達2.2億的農民工羣體本身正在成爲一個有實力的消費者羣體。這一根本轉變勢必推動中國的下一場重大經濟演變。

This cohort spent Rmb4.2tn ($677bn) on consumer goods and services in 2012, according to a nationwide survey of 1,500 migrants by China Confidential, a Financial Times research service. Putting this into context, it is equivalent to 1.5 times total consumer spending in Indonesia last year and 23 per cent more than that of Turkey in 2011.

英國《金融時報》旗下調研機構《中國投資參考》(China Confidential)對中國各地1500名農民工的調查顯示，農民工羣體2012年總共消費了4.2萬億元人民幣(合6770億美元）的商品和服務。要更加直觀地理解這個數字，不妨作一些對比：它相當於印尼去年總消費者支出的1.5倍，或者比土耳其2011年總消費者支出高出23%。

The shift is a metaphor for the country itself, deriving as much from psychological, social and generational shifts as economic inflection points. Migrants born into the relative plenty of the 1990s are considerably more spendthrift than those born in the 1980s and 1970s, spending 53 per cent of their incomes, compared with 47.2 per cent and 38.3 per cent respectively, the survey shows.

這種轉變也是中國本身轉變的縮影，其原因既包括經濟到達拐點，也包括心理、社會以及代際的轉變。前述調查顯示，出生於相對富裕的90年代的“90後”，在花錢方面比“80後”和“70後”要大手大腳得多。他們花掉53%的收入，而“80後”和“70後”的這個數字分別爲47.2%和38.3%。

Much of their monthly discretionary spending goes on mass consumer items such as instant noodles, fast food, beer, soft drinks, clothing, footwear and mobile phones. While brand consciousness remains rudimentary, preferences for some brands – foreign and domestic – are rapidly emerging as the cohort climbs the income ladder. These include Uni-President and Master Kong noodles; KFC and McDonald’s for fast food; Nokia and Samsung for mobile phones; Anta and Li-Ning sportswear; Shuanghui for processed meat; Snow and Tsingtao for beer; and Taobao for online shopping.

農民工每月的可自由支配支出大部分用於購買大衆消費者產品，比如方便麪、快餐、啤酒、無醇飲料、服裝鞋帽和手機。儘管他們的品牌意識仍處於朦朧階段，但隨着收入的增加，他們正迅速形成對一些中外品牌的偏好，包括統一(Uni-President)和康師傅(Master Kong)方便麪，肯德基(KFC)和麥當勞(McDonald's)快餐，諾基亞(Nokia)和三星(Samsung)手機，安踏(Anta)和李寧(Li-Ning)運動服裝，雙匯(Shuanghui)肉製品，雪花(Snow)和青島(Tsingtao)啤酒，以及上淘寶(Taobao)網購物。

Such early fumbles toward brand sophistication are remarkable in a group treated with almost universal condescension by city dwellers only a decade ago. Leslie Chang, author of Factory Girls , a book about the migrant phenomenon, describes how bosses – secure in the knowledge that there were numberless millions more would-be workers than jobs – would treat employees with ill-disguised disdain.

這些朦朧的品牌意識令人矚目，因爲這個羣體僅10年前還幾乎普遍被城市居民瞧不起。記述農民工現狀的《工廠女孩》(Factory Girls)一書作者張彤禾(Leslie Chang)說，在每一個工作崗位都會引來無數農民工爭搶的時代，老闆們對手下員工的鄙夷幾乎是毫不掩飾的。

As Ms Chang notes, many of the thousands of factories in Dongguan, a manufacturing hub in the southern province of Guangdong, had an Orwellian aura, with slogans on the walls such as: “To die poor is a sin”; “If you don’t work hard today, you’ll search hard for work tomorrow”; and “Through doing something, you will learn it”. Job advertisements were similarly brusque: “Sales specialist. Can eat bitterness and endure hardship. No only children.”

張彤禾指出，在東莞（廣東省的製造業腹地）的衆多工廠裏，瀰漫着一種喬治•奧威爾(George Orwell)小說中的氣氛：很多牆上貼着“貧窮地死去是一種罪過”、“今天工作不努力，明天努力找工作”、“實踐出真知”等標語。類似地，招聘廣告也赤裸裸地寫道：“招銷售專員。能吃苦耐勞。獨生子女勿擾。”

The tables have turned. Since blue-collar labour moved from surplus to shortage in 2010, bargaining power has shifted from bosses to migrants, obliging employers to learn some charm and lure workers with rising salaries and improved benefits. Throughout 2012, the proportion of blue-collar openings filled each month never exceeded 75 per cent, according to China Confidential data.

這種局面已發生逆轉。從2010年開始，藍領勞動力市場已由供給過剩轉爲供給短缺，新的形勢迫使僱主學着取悅工人，並用加薪和改善福利吸引更多工人爲自己工作。《中國投資參考》的數據顯示，2012年，每月的藍領崗位空缺填補率都沒有超過75%。

The result of this fundamental labour market reversal has been to propel migrant workers’ incomes sharply higher, a trend that is unlikely to change for as long as blue-collar labour remains in shortage. Indeed, such incomes are rising faster than those of any other significant consumer cohort – climbing 12 per cent to Rmb2,995 a month in 2012, the China Confidential survey shows. This compares with the average annual growth rate in urban incomes of 9.3 per cent of the past decade.

勞動力市場的這種根本性逆轉，已促使農民工的收入迅速增長。只要藍領勞動力仍然短缺，這一趨勢就不太可能改變。的確，《中國投資參考》的調查顯示，農民工收入上漲速度超過了其他任何重要消費者羣體——他們的月收入在2012年累計上漲12%，達到2995元。與之形成對照的是，過去10年裏城市居民收入平均每年增長9.3%。

From Beijing’s perspective, the vitality of the migrant worker cohort could hardly be of greater importance to the twin aims of rebalancing the growth model and spurring urbanisation. In the first endeavour, there is no question that migrant worker spending is an increasingly potent driver away from an over-reliance on investment-led growth and towards more consumption. Consumer spending in the first quarter of this year accounted for 55 per cent of gross domestic product growth, raising expectations that 2013 may be the third consecutive year in which consumption contributes more than investment to GDP growth.

從北京方面的視角看，農民工羣體的消費實力對實現增長模式再平衡和推進城鎮化這兩個目標至關重要。就第一個目標而言，毫無疑問，農民工支出在促使增長模式由過度投資依賴型轉向消費拉動型方面，正發揮着越來越重要的作用。今年第一季度國內生產總值(GDP)增長的55%由消費者支出貢獻，預計2013年消費對GDP增長的貢獻將連續第三年超過投資。

For urbanisation, too – which Li Keqiang, the premier, has said is set to become the greatest source of domestic demand in the coming decade – rural migrants are seen as crucial. Mr Li has plans to reform the household registration (hukou) system – which classifies everyone as either rural or urban – turning migrants into urban citizens, which qualifies them for more generous welfare allocations. The planned surge in welfare awards, in turn, is expected to spur consumer spending.

農民工對於推進城鎮化也很關鍵。中國總理李克強已表示，城鎮化將成爲中國未來10年最大內需來源。李克強計劃推進戶籍制度改革（目前這一制度將所有居民劃分爲城鎮居民和農村居民兩類），讓農民工獲得城鎮居民身份，從而有資格在福利分配方面享受更好的待遇。而福利待遇的大幅提高，進而將促進消費支出。

While the exact methodologies for hukou reform are yet to be announced by Beijing, signs are that many migrants are keen to embrace a settled urban future. Of the 220m who live and work in cities but have no urban hukou, 131m are keen to become permanent urban residents, the survey shows. If this number – roughly equivalent to the population of Japan – do settle permanently in cities, it will not be their sweat so much as their spending power that shapes China’s destiny.

儘管中國政府仍未公佈戶籍制度改革的細則，但有跡象顯示，許多農民工非常樂意在城市裏定居下來。前述調查顯示，在城市裏生活和工作的2.2億農民工中，有1.31億人渴望成爲城鎮永久居民。如果這麼多人（大約相當於日本的總人口）真的在城市裏定居下來，那麼中國的命運在更大程度上將受他們的購買力、而非勞動力影響。