年美國經濟五大決定因素
Economic forecasters are counting on 2014 to be a breakout year. But whether the economy finally moves past its sluggish growth will rest on several forces playing out differently than they have since the recovery began. Some of the key questions:
預測人士期望2014年能夠成爲經濟實現突破的一年。但經濟能否最終擺脫低迷的增長，還要取決於幾個因素出現與此輪復甦剛開始時不一樣的表現。以下是其中的幾個關鍵因素:Will businesses finally shed their caution?
企業能否最終擺脫謹慎情緒？A devastating financial crisis led business owners and corporate executives to be especially wary about adding staff or investing in new equipment. Some worry about risks from Washington or overseas. Others are seeing consumers maintain their slow-but-steady spending, providing little incentive to deploy their cash stockpiles.
一場破壞力巨大的金融危機令企業主和高管們在增加僱員和投資新設備上尤爲謹慎。一些人士還擔憂來自華盛頓或海外的風險。其他人士則預計消費者將維持緩慢但穩定的支出速度，這使企業沒有太多動力來動用現金儲備。
As a result, business investment in key areas such as equipment has been historically weak for a U.S. recovery. A slowly improving jobs picture and rising household wealth could spark a virtuous cycle of stronger consumer spending, increased business confidence and rising investment. If it doesn't, the year could be another letdown.
受此影響，對設備等關鍵領域的商業投資一直處在美國復甦歷史中的低點。若就業市場緩慢改善，且家庭財富增長，則可能引發消費支出增加的良性循環，增強商業信心並增加投資。但若情況並非如此，那麼今年將再度令人失望。Will Washington's tentative truce continue?
華盛頓暫時的“停戰”能否持續？The December budget deal was hardly the kind of confidence-boosting agreement Washington has been debating for years. But at least it hit the pause button on the serial brinkmanship that threatened to derail the recovery each of the past three years.
去年12月份達成的預算協議很難稱得上是華盛頓激辯多年所希望看到的、能夠提振信心的協議，但至少它爲華盛頓不斷上演的政治博弈按下了“暫停”鍵。在過去三年中，華盛頓每年都會上演的這種博弈對經濟的復甦構成了威脅。A combination of tax increases and spending cuts in 2013 shaved about 1.5 percentage points off annual economic growth, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Many forecasters expect the fiscal drag in 2014 to be one-third that amount, or less. 'You'll have more political certainty this year,' said Gregory Daco, a U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.
根據美國國會預算辦公室(Congressional Budget Office)的數據，稅收增加與支出削減將2013年的經濟增速拉低了約1.5個百分點。許多預測人士認爲，2014年財政因素對經濟增速的拖累幅度將是2013年的三分之一或更低。牛津經濟研究院(Oxford Economics)的美國經濟學家達科(Gregory Daco)稱，今年政治方面的確定性更高。However, some lawmakers already are discussing a standoff again in late February over raising the federal borrowing limit. 'You can never count on policy makers to not shoot themselves in the foot,' Mr. Daco said.
不過，一些議員已經開始討論2月末或因聯邦借款上限再度引發僵局。達科稱，你永遠不能指望決策者們不會搬起石頭砸自己的腳。Will the Federal Reserve's path out of bond buying get bumpy?
美聯儲退出購債計劃的道路是否會經歷坎坷？The Fed last month laid out a timetable to slow the pace of its bond purchases throughout the year. The central bank, which had been soaking up $85 billion a month in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities since late 2012, plans to reduce the pace of purchases by $10 billion at each meeting until it is no longer buying bonds at year-end.
美聯儲上個月公佈了今年放緩購債步伐的時間表。美聯儲計劃在每一次政策會議上將購債規模減少100億美元，直到今年年底不再進行購債。自從2012年末以來，美聯儲每個月都買入850億美元美國國債和住房抵押貸款支持證券。Few of the Fed's forecasts have proceeded according to plan over the course of the sharp economic downturn and choppy recovery, a fact that Fed officials now openly acknowledge. 'We have been disappointed in the pace of growth, and we don't fully understand why,' Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said at his final news conference last month.
在經濟大幅放緩和復甦不順的過程中，美聯儲的計劃幾乎都沒有按照原先設定的那樣去實施，美聯儲官員們現在也公開承認了這一事實。美聯儲主席貝南克(Ben Bernanke)上個月在其最後一次新聞發佈會上表示，美聯儲對於增長步伐感到失望，同時也沒有完全弄明白其中的原因。The central bank last year spent more than six months signaling its intent to wean the economy off a third round of bond-buying, and the prospect upset markets at just about every turn. Now it's only in the first stage of that process.
美聯儲去年花了六個多月的時間暗示其有意退出第三輪購債計劃，這種可能性時常擾動着市場。目前美聯儲僅處於退出購債計劃的第一階段。Even if the tapering is smooth, the Fed could spend much of the year grappling with the prospect of raising its interest-rate target as early as 2015.
即便縮減購債規模的行動進展順利，今年大部分時間美聯儲也會在是否最早於2015年開始加息的問題上舉棋不定。Will the housing sector adjust easily to higher interest rates?
住房市場能輕鬆適應利率上升嗎？Housing started last year on a high note. It ended the year facing mounting worries about higher interest rates, supply constraints, tight credit and a host of other problems.
住房市場在去年年初表現搶眼，但到年末時則受到不斷加重的擔憂情緒困擾，這其中包括利率上升、供給制約、信貸收緊及一系列其他問題。Sales of previously owned homes have slipped every month since July, according to the National Association of Realtors. That coincides with the surge in borrowing costs across the economy as a result of the Fed's signals about its bond-buying program.
美國全國地產經紀商協會(National Association of Realtors)的數據顯示，自去年7月份以來美國成屋銷量每月都在下滑。這和美國借貸成本上升是同步的。由於美聯儲暗示將縮減購債計劃的規模，整個經濟的借貸成本不斷上升。Lawrence Yun, the trade group's chief economist, expects the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage to hit 5.5% at year-end, up from 4.5% late last year and 3.5% in the first half of 2013. That's a sharp runup in a short period of time, one that could harm affordability and spook even more buyers.
該協會的首席經濟學家Lawrence Yun預計，到今年年底，30年期固息抵押貸款的平均利率將觸及5.5%，高於去年底的4.5%和去年上半年的3.5%。抵押貸款利率在短期內如此急劇上升，可能會損害購房者的承受能力，甚至嚇退更多購房者。Will the rest of the world cooperate?
全球其他地區能加以配合嗎？Once the U.S. economic recovery started in 2009, other parts of the world started to struggle in their own ways.
在2009年美國經濟開始復甦時，全球其他地區開始陷入各自的困境。Europe fell into a debt crisis. Japan faced a natural disaster. Emerging markets, once the bright spots on the global landscape, lost their glow. Political crises from Italy to Egypt to Thailand raised the prospect of another round of global unrest.
歐洲出現了債務危機。日本面臨自然災害。曾經是全球亮點的新興市場也失去了光芒。近來意大利、埃及和泰國等國頻現政治危機，這或許表明全球市場可能將出現新一輪動盪。The world got by in 2013 with fewer confidence-shaking moments than in prior years. But the vulnerabilities haven't disappeared. 'It's not a great story anywhere, though it's more hopeful than it has been,' said Jerry Webman, chief economist at OppenheimerFunds.
和過去幾年相比，2013年信心受到動搖的時候少了，但市場依然很容易受到影響。OppenheimerFunds的首席經濟學家韋布曼(Jerry Webman)表示，雖然2013年的信心要強於以往，但全球各地也不都是這樣。The relatively stable global outlook must continue if 2014 is to be the kind of economic year Americans have been hoping for throughout the recovery.
要想2014年像美國人所期望的那樣由經濟復甦貫穿整個年度，全球經濟前景必須保持相對穩定的局面。
