諸暨襪城危機:中國經濟衰退的一個縮影

A workingwoman at a sock factory in Yiwu, China. But after years of brisk business, Zhejiang province is now facing an economic slowdown. Photograph: Eugene Hoshiko/AP

中國義烏襪子廠的一名工人。繁榮經濟的幾年後浙江省現在面臨着經濟的衰退期。

The hosiery business has been good to the entrepreneurs of Datang, who rode out the 2008 crisis and recovered. But now business is slowing again – and experts fear that may presage a hard landing for the whole country.

諸暨市大唐鎮的針織品行業一直很繁榮。經歷了2008年的經濟危機它都恢復過來了。但是現在這個行業又一次萎靡了——專家們擔憂這很可能是整個國家經濟衰退的一個前兆。

The foolish man built his house upon sand; the wise man built his house on a rock. The ambitious entrepreneurs of Datang chose a sturdy nylon and wool foundation. "People always need socks," points out Xu Leile, whose company clothes the feet of the British and US armies, European hikers and pampered pet dogs.

愚蠢的人將房子建造在沙子上，明智的人將房子建在石頭上。大唐鎮裏野心勃勃的企業家選擇了堅硬的尼龍和羊毛作爲根基。“襪子是每個人的必需品。”徐雷樂（音譯）說到。他的公司生產的衣服遠銷全球，英美的軍隊、歐洲的探險者和那些富人養的寵物狗都是產品的受益者。

Thanks to Xu and hundreds more like him, "Sock City" – north-west of Tie Town, east of Sweater Town – epitomised China's economic success story. The obscure settlement in eastern Zhejiang province became an export-driven boomtown, producing as much as a third of the world's sock supply and thriving even through the financial crisis in 2008 and the subsequent global recession.

多虧了徐和數百個和他一樣的企業家，襪城——一個位於“領帶”鎮的西北部，“羊毛衫”鎮的東部的小鎮——創造了中國經濟的一個成功的傳說。這個浙江東部的昏暗小鎮成爲了一個以出口爲主的經濟強鎮。世界襪子的三分之一由這裏產出，即便是遭遇2008年的經濟危機和之後的全球經濟衰退，它們也繁榮依舊。

Last year, Datang made roughly two pairs of socks for every person on earth. Long and short, Argyle or polka-dotted, they cram the stores of the nearby wholesale market. In Xu's spacious new factory, the shelves are stacked with huge reels of red, blue and orange thread. But ask Xu about the future and he grimaces. "I'm very worried. This year is much worse than 2008-9," he says.

去年，平均算來，大唐鎮爲地球上每人約生產了2雙襪子。簡單一句話，他們佔據了零售市場的各個商店。在徐那無比寬敞的新工廠裏，架上擺滿了巨大的線團，有紅色、藍色和橙色的。但是當被問到未來會怎樣？他滿臉愁容：我對未來很擔憂。這年的形勢比2008、2009那時候還要糟糕。

The biggest of his rivals to have gone under in May – the Anli Sock Group, which produced 60m pairs of socks annually – could prove to be "the Lehman Brothers of Datang", according to Fan Jianping, chief economist of the State Information Centre.

他的主要競爭對手—安利襪業—已經在五月破產了。安利襪業之前每年生產6000萬雙襪子。範建平，國家信息中心的首席經濟學家說到：“在大唐鎮襪業裏，他們倆可以說是襪業裏的“萊曼兄弟”。

Failures such as Anli's and a slew of disappointing data in recent weeks are raising fears far beyond China that a slowdown in the world's second largest economy is turning into a hard landing. In the face of Europe's woes and the weak US recovery, Chinese growth has become more important than ever: the ripples are already being felt globally, with commodities analysts blaming tumbling prices on falling demand from China.

安利的失敗和這幾週一系列令人失望的數據正在中國引起恐慌，經濟的衰退讓這個世界第二大經濟國面臨經濟的硬着陸。面臨歐洲的抵制、美國經濟復甦的無力、中國經濟的增長比之前顯得還要重要。經濟的起伏全球都感受到了。商品分析人士指責價格的下降是由於對中國出口的需求減少了。

The country's premier, Wen Jiabao, has issued repeated warnings about the economy, saying growth is under pressure and exports need support. Last week's announcement of approval for infrastructure projects, which some estimate to be worth 1tn yuan (£99bn), appears to be an indication of just how alarmed authorities have become about the largely investment-driven economy.

這個國家的總理—溫家寶—不斷髮出對經濟的警告：經濟增長正面臨巨大的壓力，需要刺激出口。上週宣佈同意基礎設施建設，有些人估計要達到1萬億人民幣（990億美元）這似乎是一個信號：中國政府官員對靠大規模投資驅動的經濟發展模式開始有所醒悟了。

Until now, they have taken a series of milder measures, such as cutting the reserve ratio requirement and reducing interest rates, mindful of the painful hangover that resulted from the huge 4tn yuan stimulus they adopted to stave off the last crisis. That inflated property prices again and left a legacy of massive local government debt and questionable loans and infrastructure projects.

到現在爲止，他們已經採取了一系列緩和措施。比如減少外匯儲備率和減少存款利率。政府留心到以前投入的4萬億人民幣的刺激以期望度過經濟危機的計劃沒有奏效，反而留下後遺症，使得物價再次上漲，留給許多當地政府大批債務、有問題的借貸和基礎設施工程。

China's economy saw second-quarter growth of 7.6% year-on-year: enviable to US or European eyes, but the lowest rate in three years, and the sixth straight quarter of slowing growth. Export growth slid to 1% in July – the lowest rate for three years, bar January, which was skewed by the lunar New Year holiday – and earlier this week, the official factory purchasing managers' index fell to 49.2 – the first time since November that it had dropped below the 50 barrier separating expansion from contraction.

之前中國每年總是在第二季度保持7.6%的增長，讓美國或者歐洲嫉妒，但是現在這三年經濟增長率是歷史上最低的，已經連續六個月保持這樣的緩慢增長了。但是最近三年達到最低的比例，和第六個季度的緩慢增長。出口增長率六月下降到1%——近三年來最低的增長率。