經濟廣角:併購市場的衰退結束了嗎?

Is the M&A Recession Really Over?
Has the M&A Market finally hit bottom?

For two years, deal makers have been searching for signs of that bottom. And for two years, merger activity has kept going down. Even as the economy and the stock and credit markets showed signs of improvement this summer, the M&A market remained a laggard.

And yet lately, there have been signs of life. Since Aug. 31, corporate buyers have announced a spate of big, brand-name deals, such as Walt Disney's $4 billion acquisition of Marvel Entertainment; Kraft Foods's $16.73 billion takeover offer for Cadbury; and Dell's $3.9 billion deal to purchase Perot Systems.

So, have we seen the bottom? The answer seems to be at least a qualified yes. M&A has hit its cyclical trough and is starting a slow slog back up. That certainly was the take of Mr. Market on Monday.

'These deals are a strong, bullish sign for the market,' said Howard Lanser, a director at Robert W. Baird. 'These are game changing, strategic transactions by the CEOs of these companies. The CEOs are showing confidence and are taking a longer term view.' But Lanser cautions that M&A activity needs to be broader across more industries for a more robust recovery. In the near term, deal volume is likely to remain depressed, just not at levels seen in July and August.

A look at September's numbers lends support to that outlook. The dollar volume of world-wide and U.S. deals jumped significantly from August, up 58% and 79%, respectively. Yet the number of announced deals is less encouraging, with September likely to be flat with August. And while deal volume is up from August, September still marks the 12th straight month of year-over-year declines, according to Dealogic.

One reason is that, although corporate buyers increasingly feel the worst is behind them, they still don't have a feel for the market. Buyers are concerned that they will be buying into a false uptick, while sellers remain concerned that they are selling too low. That may be keeping a number of would-be buyers on the sidelines.

But given the struggles of the M&A market, the positives are finally outweighing the negatives and, more importantly, confidence is coming back.

併購市場終於觸底了嗎？

兩年以來，交易締造者們一直在搜尋市場觸底的跡象。兩年來，併購活動持續下滑。即便今年夏天經濟、股市和信貸市場都顯現出回升跡象的時候，併購市場仍然止步不前。

但這個市場最近顯現了復甦跡象。自8月31日以來，企業收購方宣佈了一系列重大收購交易，例如迪士尼(Walt Disney)斥資40億美元收購Marvel Entertainment，卡夫食品(Kraft Foods)向吉百利(Cadbury)提出167.3億美元收購要約，以及戴爾(Dell)支付39億美元收購Perot Systems。

那麼，市場觸底了嗎？這個問題似乎至少得到了有條件的肯定答案。併購市場已經觸及了週期性底部，正開始緩慢回升。這肯定是市場週一的看法。

券商Robert W. Baird董事蘭瑟(Howard Lanser)表示，這些交易是市場回升的一個強勁利好跡象。這些公司的首席執行長們進行了改變行業的戰略交易。他們表現出了信心，抱有更長遠的眼光。但蘭瑟警告稱，併購活動要更廣泛地出現在更多行業纔算是強勁復甦。近期而言，交易量可能仍然會低迷不振，只是不像7月和8月那麼低而已。

9月份的數據分析支持了這一預期。當月全球和美國併購交易以美元計算的金額較8月份分別暴漲了58%和79%。但9月份宣佈的交易數量不太令人振奮，可能與8月份持平。Dealogic的數據顯示，儘管9月份併購交易額高於8月份，但仍然連續第12個月出現同比下滑。

其中一個原因是，儘管企業收購方日益感覺到他們已經度過了最糟糕的階段，但他們仍然對市場缺乏感覺。收購方擔心他們會被虛假的市場上升所矇蔽，而出售方仍然擔心他們售價過低了。這種狀況可能正令諸多潛在收購方決定繼續觀望。

但考慮到併購市場此前的困難狀況，積極因素最終壓過了負面因素，更爲重要的是，市場信心正在迴歸。