日本修正後經濟數據將擺脫衰退

Japan’s “recession” will soon be exposed as an illusion according to the country’s economy minister, Akira Amari, who on Sunday predicted data revisions this week will turn contraction into growth.

日本內閣府特命擔當大臣甘利明(Akira Amari)表示，日本的“經濟衰退”很快將被證明只是一個幻影。他在週日預測，本週發佈的修正數據將把原先估測的收縮上調爲增長。

Initial figures just three weeks ago showed the economy shrank at an annualised 0.8 per cent in the third quarter, meeting the technical definition of a recession, and prompting gloom about the outlook. But Mr Amari said he expected a revision from 0.8 per cent to zero this week.

僅僅三週前發佈的初步數字顯示，第三季度日本經濟以0.8%的年率萎縮，這符合經濟衰退的技術定義，並引發各方對於經濟前景產生悲觀。但甘利明表示，他預計萎縮0.8%的數據將在本週被修正爲零。

That would confirm Japan’s economy is not in a downward spiral, despite sluggish consumption and exports, but it would raise fresh questions about the unreliable early growth data.

那將確認儘管消費和出口低迷，但日本經濟並未陷入螺旋式下降，不過它也會引發有關初步增長數據怎麼會不可靠的新問題。

“I expect growth to turn positive from here,” said Mr Amari, an influential figure in the government of prime minister Shinzo Abe. “I think we’re on a path of steady recovery.”

“我預計增長從此將轉爲正數，”身爲安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)首相的政府中有影響力人物的甘利明表示。“我想我們正處於穩步復甦的軌道上。”

Expectations for an upward revision have grown since the publication of finance ministry data last week showing a third-quarter rise in corporate investment. That was the opposite of the initial gross domestic product data, which showed investment falling.

自財務省上週發佈數據、顯示第三季度企業投資上升以來，經濟數據將向上修正的預期有所增強。最初的國內生產總值(GDP)數據顯示企業投資下降。

Analysts at Citi in Tokyo expect an upward revision to show growth was flat while Goldman Sachs expects a revision to plus 0.2 per cent for the quarter.

花旗(Citi)常駐東京的分析師們預期向上修正將顯示增長持平，而高盛(Goldman Sachs)預計此次修訂將顯示該季增長0.2%。

Mr Abe wants companies to invest more at home and is planning to encourage them by cutting corporation tax from 32.11 per cent to 29.77 per cent next year. He is also pushing them to raise wages.

安倍希望企業在國內加大投資力度，並計劃通過削減公司稅（從32.11%減至明年的29.77%）鼓勵它們這麼做。他還在推動企業提高工資。

Mr Abe’s goal is to turn the surge in corporate profits caused by the weak yen into greater demand, in order to sustain economic growth and drive inflation towards the Bank of Japan’s goal of 2 per cent.

安倍的目標是把日元疲弱帶來的企業利潤激增轉化爲更大的需求，以保持經濟增長勢頭，並推動通脹趨近日本央行(Bank of Japan) 2%的目標。

One problem is the large number of Japanese companies that make accounting losses and therefore pay no corporation tax anyway. On Sunday, Mr Amari hinted at new measures to push them towards investment.

問題之一是很多日本公司在賬面上虧損，因而本來就不用繳納公司稅。週日，甘利明暗示將出臺新措施，推動它們進行投資。

“You have to pay fixed asset taxes regardless of losses,” he said. “I’d like to bring in fixed asset tax relief for companies making new investments, which is something we’ve never done before.”

“無論虧損不虧損，你都必須交固定資產稅，”他表示。“我希望對作出新投資的企業推出固定資產稅減免，這是我們從來沒有做過的事情。”

The overall effect of any tax changes is hard to predict, however, because the government is engaged in a complicated debate about how to pay for them. It is planning to raise the “pro forma” corporation tax, which is paid regardless of a company’s income.

不過，任何稅制改革的總體效果都是很難預測的，因爲政府正投入一場有關如何爲它們買單的複雜辯論。日本正計劃提高與企業利潤無關的“預計”公司稅。

Taxing companies regardless of profitability should force them to restructure and improve productivity. Hitting them with a rise in the pro forma tax may discourage investment, however, even if it offset by relief from fixed asset taxes.

在不考慮盈利能力的情況下對企業徵稅，應當能夠迫使它們進行重組和提高生產率。不過，提高預計稅收可能會打擊它們，使其不願投資——即使得到固定資產稅減免的補償也是如此。

The government is planning a modest supplementary budget for this year, expected to be Y3tn-Y4tn, but the corporation tax changes are likely to be part of the budget for the new fiscal year starting in April.

日本政府正考慮爲當前財年推出適度的補充預算，估計規模達到3萬億至4萬億日元，但公司稅務改革很可能被納入從4月開始的下一財年預算。