油價跳水 俄預測明年經濟陷衰退

MOSCOW — After months of insisting that Russia can weather sanctions and plunging oil prices, Moscow for the first time is acknowledging that the economy could fall into a recession next year.

莫斯科——幾個月來，俄羅斯一直堅稱自己能夠經受住制裁和油價的急速下跌，但現在，莫斯科方面首次承認，該國經濟明年可能會陷入衰退。

The Ministry of Economic Development, which publishes the government’s economic outlook, on Tuesday revised its forecast for 2015 to show a contraction of 0.8 percent, compared with a previous projection of 1.2 percent growth.

週二，負責發佈官方經濟展望的經濟發展部(The Ministry of Economic Development)修改了預測數字，稱俄羅斯經濟將於2015年萎縮0.8%，而不是之前預計的增長1.2%。

The combination of sanctions and plummeting oil prices is catching up with Russia’s economy, wobbly in the best of times because of its heavy reliance on commodity exports.

制裁和油價猛跌同時作用，正在對俄羅斯經濟造成不利影響。由於嚴重依賴大宗商品出口，俄羅斯經濟在最好的時候陷入了搖搖欲墜的狀態。

In the face of the weakness, the ruble has been in a free fall, driven by Russians’ fears of economic isolation and their eagerness to change rubles into dollars or euros to move wealth out of the country.

面對着經濟走軟的局面，俄羅斯人擔心遭到孤立，急於將盧布換成美元或歐元，以便將財產轉移到海外。此舉致使盧布大幅貶值。

The ruble opened at 52 to the dollar and slipped to around 53 in trading on Tuesday. So far this year, the ruble has fallen more than 40 percent against the dollar.

週二，外匯市場以52盧布兌1美元開盤，以大約53盧布兌１美元收盤。今年到目前爲止，盧布對美元的匯率已下跌逾40%。

Also boding ill for the Russian economy was the announcement on Monday by President Vladimir V. Putin that he would scrap plans for South Stream gas pipeline. The project, once intended to establish the country’s energy dominance in southeastern Europe, fell victim to Russia’s increasingly strained relationship with the West.

俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·V·普京(Vladimir V. Putin)週一宣佈，將廢除“南線”(South Stream)天然氣管道項目。這對俄羅斯經濟來說也是一個壞消息。該項目原本意在讓俄羅斯確立在歐洲東南部的能源主導地位，但最終成爲其與西方關係緊張的犧牲品。

More policies shifts could follow. The Russian economy has a history of making hairpin turns from growth to sharp decline, imposing sudden and wide-ranging limitations on the country’s foreign and domestic politics.

接下來或許會出現更多的政策轉變。俄羅斯經濟擁有急劇變化的前科，頻頻從增長掉到大幅下滑，導致該國的對外及對內政策突然受到廣泛的鉗制。

The economic woes show little signs of easing anytime soon.

目前的經濟困境沒有顯示出多少將會很快緩解的跡象。

Western sanctions over Russia’s annexation of the Crimean Peninsula and backing of rebel groups in eastern Ukraine have crippled Russian banks by restricting them to short-term credit.

因爲俄羅斯吞併克里米亞半島、支持烏克蘭東部的叛亂組織，西方對其施加了制裁。這種制裁令俄羅斯銀行僅能獲得短期貸款，使得它們遭到重創。

The weakness in oil prices, now around $72 a barrel, is complicating matters. Oil and natural gas make up about 60 percent of Russia’s export earnings.

油價走低則讓情況變得更加複雜。眼下，油價將至每桶72美元左右（約合440元人民幣），而石油和天然氣在俄羅斯的出口收益中佔了大概60%。

In another worrying sign, Russians have been bulking up on consumer items as the ruble depreciates, converting savings into durable goods lest their savings become worthless. Appliance stores in Moscow have had runs on refrigerators, washing machines and televisions. It is a pattern seen before previous ruble crashes, indicating evaporating faith in the currency.

還有一個令人擔心的跡象：隨着盧布的貶值，俄羅斯人開始囤積消費品，拿出儲蓄來購買耐用品，以免積蓄變得一文不值。莫斯科的電器商店出現了哄搶冰箱、洗衣機和電視的現象。之前盧布匯率暴跌時出現過這種情況，說明人們正在對盧布迅速失去信心。

“I expect inflation to go to double digits early next year,” said Vladimir Tikhomirov, chief economist at BCS Financial Group.

BCS金融集團(BCS Financial Group)的首席經濟師弗拉基米爾·蒂霍米羅夫(Vladimir Tikhomirov)說，“我認爲，明年年初，通貨膨脹率將達到兩位數。”

“The only reason people haven’t started changing their savings into currency in larger amounts is because it happened so fast,” he added. “It caught them off guard.”

“人們之所以還沒有開始把儲蓄大量轉化爲外匯，唯一的原因是，一切發生得太快，”他還說。“讓他們猝不及防。”

Russia’s state finances appear solid for now. The depreciation of the ruble has raised tax income from commodity exports priced in dollars, like oil.

目前，俄羅斯的國家財政狀況似乎依然穩定。盧布的貶值，增加了來自石油等用美元計價的大宗出口商品的稅收。

And the central bank and two sovereign wealth funds hold billions, giving the country a decent cushion. Still, economists argue that the headline numbers exaggerate somewhat the amount available to prop up the ruble or bail out companies, as the money is already committed to long-term investments in Russia.

此外，俄羅斯央行和兩個主權財富基金手握大筆資金，可以給經濟提供一個很好的緩衝。不過，經濟學家們認爲，這些大事宣揚的數據誇大了可以用來支撐盧布或者援助企業的金額，因爲這筆錢已經承諾在了俄羅斯的長期投資上。

The deteriorating economy also puts Mr. Putin in a difficult spot.

不斷惡化的經濟狀況也讓普京陷入了困境。

He has presided over more than a decade marked largely by an expanding economy and rising inflation-adjusted wages. Now that record is coming to a close.

在他當政的十多年裏，俄羅斯經濟持續擴張，經通脹調整後的工資水平也在不斷上漲。如今，這種局面即將結束。

Mr. Putin did not address the projected economic decline publicly on Tuesday, and ministers disagreed on the severity of the problems.

週二，普京沒有公開提及預測中的經濟衰退，幾名內閣部長也在問題的嚴重性上產生了分歧。

Aleksey Vedev, the deputy minister of economic development, told reporters that “the Russian economy is harmed by three forms of crisis or elements of instability: structural, speculative and geopolitical risks,” according to Tass, the state-run news agency. “So in my view it is a little simplistic to assert that the Russian economy lowers its rate of growth or goes into the negative only due to oil prices.”

俄羅斯官方媒體塔斯社(Tass)報道，經濟發展部副部長阿列克謝·韋傑夫(Aleksey Vedev)告訴記者，“三種形式的危機或不穩定因素正在對俄羅斯經濟造成損害：結構、投機和地緣政治方面的風險。所以在我看來，如果把俄羅斯經濟的增長率降低或發生衰退僅僅歸咎於油價問題的話，有些過分簡單化。”

Anton Siluanov, the Russian finance minister, called the report a “preliminary assessment,” and said it had not been approved by the entire cabinet. The Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Economic Development often release competing and contradictory economic data.

俄羅斯財長安東·西盧阿諾夫(Anton Siluanov)則稱這一預測是“初步估算”，並表示它並未得到整個內閣的認可。財政部(Ministry of Finance)和經濟發展部常常會發布一些相互矛盾的經濟數據。

Mr. Siluanov also argued that the ruble was now undervalued after its long slide. He said the ruble might stabilize next year at 45 to the dollar, stronger than the economy ministry’s estimate on Tuesday of an average ruble-dollar exchange rate of 49 in 2015.

西盧阿諾夫還認爲，經過長時間的下滑，盧布目前的幣值偏低。他表示，明年，匯率可能會穩定在45盧布兌換1美元。這一預測要強於經濟發展部週二估計的2015年平均匯率，即49盧布兌換1美元。