中國央行預測中國經濟明年增長6.8%

China’s central bank has forecast the country’s economy to grow by 6.8 per cent next year, as the effect of stimulus measures and fiscal reforms offsets the mounting problems of debt and overcapacity, according to a working paper released late on Wednesday.

中國央行週三晚發佈的一篇工作論文稱，隨着刺激措施和財政改革的效應抵消了日益嚴重的債務和產能過剩問題的影響，預計2016年中國經濟增速爲6.8%。

The optimistic forecast, comes despite wide scepticism of China’s official growth domestic product numbers as indicators such as power consumption and coal consumption imply a much weaker economic performance.

中國官方的國內生產總值(GDP)數字受到廣泛質疑，因爲用電量和煤炭消費量等指標揭示出中國經濟的實際表現要疲弱得多。儘管如此，中國央行還是作出了這一樂觀預測。

The size of China’s economy means deceleration of growth is to be expected. But economists worry that China is suffering a hangover from a massive state-backed and debt-fuelled stimulus that accelerated growth in the wake of the global financial crisis of 2008.

中國經濟的體量意味着，增長放緩是意料當中的事。但經濟學家擔心，中國正在承受由政府支持和由債務驅動的大規模刺激帶來的後遺症。這些刺激措施在2008年全球金融危機後曾推動中國經濟加速增長。

“China’s pro-growth measures will start to show a stronger effect in the fourth quarter of 2015 or the first half of 2016,” the paper said, noting that the Peoples Bank of China’s models show fiscal and monetary policies feeding through to the real economy after five to nine months.

這篇論文寫道：“今年前三季度啓動的一系列穩增長宏觀調控措施應該在今年4季度至明年上半年開始顯現出更爲積極的效果。”論文提到，根據中國央行的模型測算，財政政策和貨幣政策的變化在5-9個月之後將顯現出對實體經濟的最大效果。

However, the central bank said industrial overcapacity and rising non-performing loans would drag on the economy.

不過，中國央行表示，工業產能過剩和不斷增多的不良貸款會拖累經濟。

Many economists doubt China’s slowdown will be as gradual as the PBoC’s projections suggest.

許多經濟學家懷疑，中國的放緩不會像中國央行預測所暗示的那樣是逐步的。

“That growth forecast looks pretty high to us,” said Andrew Batson, economist at Gavekal Dragonomics in Beijing. “ I think even 6.5 per cent would be a stretch, frankly.”

龍洲經訊(Gavekal Dragonomics)駐北京經濟學家白安儒(Andrew Batson)說：“在我們看來，這個增長預測值相當的高。坦白地講，我覺得連6.5%都難以達到。”

Financial services and home sales were both stronger in the first half of the year when the stock market boomed. It has suffered a series of crashes since May.

今年上半年，中國金融服務業和房屋銷售都表現得更爲強勁，中國股市也很興旺。自5月以來，中國股市已出現一連串暴跌。

Chinese policymakers are increasingly talking about “supply-side reform” — meaning, principally, the reorganisation of the bloated and lossmaking state sector to help reduce overcapacity and improve returns. China has recorded 44 months of unbroken declines in its producer price index, thanks to falling commodity and energy prices and the effect of overcapacity on industry profits.

中國政策制定者正在更多地談論“供給側改革”，它主要指的是將臃腫、虧損的國企進行重組，以幫助緩解產能過剩和提高回報。由於大宗商品和能源價格下滑，再加上產能過剩給工業利潤造成的影響，中國生產者價格指數(PPI)已連續44個月下降。