美國經濟首季增長低於預期大綱

The US economy grew a disappointing 2.2 per cent in the first quarter of this year as inventories piled up and the federal government cut spending.

隨着庫存增加和聯邦政府縮減開支，今年第一季度美國經濟增長2.2%，令人失望。

The annualised growth rate for gross domestic product came in below market expectations of 2.7 per cent and compares with 3 per cent growth in the fourth quarter of last year.

年化國內生產總值(GDP)增長率低於市場預測的2.7%，且與去年第四季度3%形成對比。

The weak performance did not, however, break a pattern of steady if mediocre expansion in the US, as consumption and investment grow too slowly to make up for cuts in federal spending.

然而，經濟數據黯淡並未打破美國經濟平穩擴張（即便不令人振奮）的格局。消費和投資增長過慢，不足以抵消聯邦政府縮減開支的影響。

“The US economy remains a bright light in the global economy, although the light is hardly blinding and also showing some signs of fading,” said Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit in London.倫敦Markit首席經濟學家克里斯•威廉森(Chris Williamson)表示，“美國經濟仍是全球經濟中的一道亮光，儘管這亮光很難說得上耀眼，而且還顯出一些變弱的跡象。”

Consumption was robust, growing at an annualised pace of 2.9 per cent and adding 2 percentage points to the growth rate. But real disposable income rose by only 0.4 per cent, suggesting consumers are saving less. The savings rate fell to 3.9 per cent from 4.5 per cent in the previous quarter.

消費頗爲強勁，年化增長率達到2.9%，爲GDP增長率貢獻了2個百分點。但實際可支配收入僅增長0.4%，似乎表明消費者減少了儲蓄。儲蓄率從上一季度的4.5%降至3.9%。

“Undoubtedly the brightest spot in this report was the resurgence in consumer spending,” said Beata Caranci, deputy chief economist at TD Bank, but she warned that “we don’t expect to see a repeat performance in the strength of spending” in the second quarter.

道明銀行(TD Bank)副首席經濟學家貝亞特•卡蘭西(Beata Caranci)表示，“無疑，報告中最大亮點是消費支出恢復增長，”但她警告稱，“我們預計第二季度將不會再度出現如此強勁的消費增長”。

Investment would also have been almost flat if not for an inventory build-up that added 0.6 percentage points to growth. Cutbacks to federal spending, especially defence, subtracted 0.6 percentage points.若不是庫存增加，投資幾乎爲零增長。庫存增加爲GDP增長率貢獻了0.6個百分點。聯邦開支、尤其是防務開支的減少，對GDP增長率的拖累也是0.6個百分點。

The first estimate of GDP must be treated with caution because crucial information – such as customs documents for March – is not ready. The number is often revised once more precise data arrive.

對GDP增長率的首次估算必須得到謹慎看待，因爲關鍵數據——比如3月份的海關文件——尚未準備好。一旦取得精確的數據，GDP增長率往往會得到修正。