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日本首季度經濟增速遠超預期

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Japan’s economy grew at an annualised rate of 1.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2016, easily beating expectations of a 0.3 per cent rise, in a big boost to the country’s beleaguered policymakers.

日本首季度經濟增速遠超預期

今年第一季度,日本經濟按年率計算增長了1.7%,遠超增長0.3%的預期,將大大激勵該國處於困境中的政策制定者。

Rising gross domestic product reverses a contraction in the fourth quarter of 2015 and means Japan has avoided another technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

這一增長逆轉了去年第四季度的收縮,意味着日本避免了又一次技術性衰退。技術性衰退的定義是連續兩個季度經濟負增長。

The faster than expected pace of growth suggests the Japanese economy is managing to shake off the effects of a slowdown in China and a stronger yen — at least for now — with domestic demand having more momentum than previously thought.

經濟增速快於預期表明,日本經濟正成功擺脫中國經濟放緩和日元升值的影響(至少目前如此),國內的需求勢頭比之前想象的要強。

Robust growth data are likely to mean a smaller fiscal stimulus by the government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, which was poised to act if the data had been bad.

強勁的增長數據很可能意味着,日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)的政府不用再實施那麼大的財政刺激。假如這次的數據糟糕,日本政府打算實施這種刺激。

The data will give heart to the Bank of Japan — suggesting the economy is growing faster than its long-run trend of about 0.5 per cent — although it is unlikely to have much direct effect on monetary policy. The BoJ is still under pressure to ease because of the rising yen and the weakness of inflation.

這一數據對日本央行(Bank of Japan)是個鼓舞。它表明,日本經濟正以快於長期趨勢水平(即增速約0.5%)的速度增長,儘管這不太可能對貨幣政策產生多少直接影響。由於日元升值、通脹疲弱,日本央行仍面臨放鬆銀根的壓力。

Consumption contributed 1 percentage point to annualised growth, government consumption added 0.6 percentage points and trade chipped in 0.8 percentage points of growth. The stronger pace of consumption is particularly encouraging, suggesting higher wages are turning into spending at the shops.

消費爲年化增長貢獻了1個百分點,政府消費貢獻了0.6個百分點,貿易貢獻了0.8個百分點。消費增速加快尤其鼓舞人心,它表明薪資上漲正轉化爲消費支出。

Although the figures send a positive message about the economy, Japan’s initial GDP data are notoriously unreliable, and revisions often change the picture substantially.

儘管這些數據傳遞出關於日本經濟的積極信號,但日本GDP初值出了名的不可靠,對初值的修正往往會令圖景發生巨大改變。