日本經濟負增長 安倍擬推遲增稅

TOKYO — Japan’s economy unexpectedly shrank in the third quarter, according to government data released there on Monday, extending a painful slump triggered by an increase in the national sales tax and making it more likely that policy makers will put off a second tax hike scheduled to take effect next year.

東京——日本政府週一公佈的數據顯示，該國經濟第三季度出人意料地出現了萎縮，這意味着全國性消費稅上調引發的令人痛苦的經濟低迷狀況仍在持續，而決策者推遲定於明年生效的第二次增稅的可能性進一步增大。

The two-stage tax increase has become an all-consuming political issue in Japan, to the point that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is considering dissolving Parliament and calling fresh elections, people close to him say. Monday’s economic report is seen as critical to Mr. Abe’s decision, which is widely expected to come this week.

分兩階段實施的增稅計劃已經成爲日本最緊迫的政治議題，以至於接近日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)的人說，他正在考慮解散國會，並重新舉行選舉。外界認爲，週一公佈的經濟數據對安倍晉三預計將於本週做出的決定至關重要。

The preliminary report, issued by the Cabinet Office, showed that gross domestic product fell at an annual pace of 1.6 percent in the quarter through September. That added to the previous quarter’s much larger decline, which the government now puts at 7.3 percent, revised downward from 7.1 percent in its last report.

日本內閣府(Cabinet Office)的初步數據顯示，在截至9月底的季度裏，GDP同比下降了1.6%。而上季度的降幅比這還要大得多——政府目前的估值爲7.3%，較此前估計的7.1%作出了向下的修正。

The third-quarter G.D.P. figure confounded analyst forecasts, which were mostly more optimistic. Economists surveyed by news agencies and think tanks had been forecasting annual growth of slightly more than 2 percent on average. Mr. Abe has not said how much the economy would have needed to grow to give him the confidence to raise taxes again, but one of his economic advisers, Etsuro Honda, has argued that the minimum number needed to be close to 4 percent — higher even than the forecasts and far better than the surprising negative result.

三季度的GDP數據推翻了分析師的預測，這些預測普遍要更爲樂觀。新聞機構和智庫調查的經濟學家預計，日本經濟年度增幅的平均值將略高於2%。安倍沒有表示過經濟增速需要達到何種水平纔有信心再次增稅，但他的經濟顧問之一本田悅朗(Etsuro Honda)稱，這個數字至少需要接近4%——比預測數字還高，這與目前令人意外的負增長相比，更是天壤之別。

Although the next tax increase would not come into effect until October, Mr. Abe needs to decide what to do about it soon, to give Parliament time to change the relevant legislation if he opts to cancel or postpone it. If fully implemented, the plan would double the tax on all goods and services sold in the country, to 10 percent, over 18 months. It now stands at 8 percent after the first stage went ahead in April.

儘管下一次增稅明年10月纔會生效，安倍仍然需要馬上做出決定，因爲如果他選擇取消或推遲該計劃，議會將需要時間來改變相應的法律。如果增稅計劃被徹底執行，在未來18個月，日本國內所有商品和服務的消費稅率將增加一倍，達到10%。在4月份實施了第一階段的增稅之後，目前的消費稅率爲8%。

The increases are aimed at curbing Japan’s massive government debt, which at about two and a half years’ national economic output is the largest in the developed world. But there are concerns that after years of sluggish wage growth, consumer confidence is still too weak handle them. Instead of solving the debt problem, heavier taxes could simply push the economy back into a downward slide.

這兩次增稅旨在遏制日本超高的政府負債水平。日本政府的債務相當於該國兩年半的經濟產出，居發達國家之首。但有人擔心，在工資水平增長緩慢的狀況持續多年之後，消費者信心仍然相當脆弱，無法應對物價的大幅上漲。更沉重的稅務負擔非但不能解決政府債務問題，還會把經濟拖回到下行的軌道。

Mr. Abe has been trying to end Japan’s long era of deflation through an unprecedented campaign of economic stimulus. The effort, known as Abenomics, has dealt with setbacks in recent months. After the unexpectedly severe slowdown in the second quarter, institutions ranging from the International Monetary Fund to the Bank of Japan have cut their estimates for economic growth this year and next. The central bank, its goal of reaching 2 percent stable inflation looking increasingly out of reach, was prompted late last month to expand a stimulus program involving massive purchases of government bonds.

安倍晉三一直設法通過一個前所未有的經濟刺激行動，來終結日本長期存在的通縮狀況。這項被稱作“安倍經濟學”的行動最近幾個月遭遇了一些挫折。在二季度出人意料的嚴重下滑之後，國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)和日本銀行(Bank of Japan)等機構紛紛下調了對日本經濟今年和明年的預期。其央行日本銀行距離讓通脹率保持在2%的目標似乎越來越遙遠，上個月末，該機構不得不擴大了一個大規模購買政府債券的刺激計劃。

Abenomics is now in a particularly delicate phase. Consumer prices are rising, if not yet as strongly as hoped, as are corporate profits and the value of assets like stocks and property. But so far not much of the new wealth has reached average workers. Incomes have fallen behind the rising cost of living, in effect making people poorer. Another of Mr. Abe’s advisers, Kozo Yamamoto, a lawmaker in his ruling Liberal Democratic Party, says the second tax rise needs to be put off “until wages catch up” to prices.

安倍經濟學目前處於一個特別棘手的階段。物價在上漲，雖然可能沒有期望的那麼強勁，企業利潤以及股票和房地產價格也在上漲。但到現在爲止，並沒有很多新財富流入普通工薪階層手中。收入水平已經落後於生活成本的不斷增長，人們實際上正在變得更加貧窮。安倍領導的執政黨自民黨(Liberal Democratic Party)議員、他的另一位顧問山本幸三(Kozo Yamamoto)說，第二次增稅的舉措需要推遲，“除非工資水平追上”物價。

Monday’s data showed surprising weakness across most areas of the economy. Consumer spending barely picked up from its depressed level after the tax increase in April, while indicators of housing and business investment declined.

週一的數據顯示出了日本經濟多數領域出人意料的脆弱程度。與4月份的增稅之後的低迷水平相比，消費者支出幾乎沒有出現增長，與此同時，住房和商業投資指數也紛紛下挫。

Mr. Abe does not need to call an election to modify the tax plan, since his party is in firm control of both houses of the national legislature, the Diet. Even the existing tax legislation gives him some scope for review if he judges that the economy is struggling, and with a parliamentary majority the L.D.P. and its smaller coalition partner, New Komeito, could rewrite the law as they wanted.

由於安倍晉三的政黨牢牢控制着國會兩院，他不需要重新選舉就能夠修改稅收方案。現行稅法給他留出了餘地，如果他判定日本經濟仍舉步維艱，可以進行一些更改。此外，憑藉着在國會的多數席位，自民黨及其規模較小的執政夥伴公明黨(New Komeito)也可以按自己的想法修正這部法律。

Parliament’s current term lasts until mid-2016, making any election a year and a half sooner than legally necessary. Some political commentators have suggested the tax issue is merely a convenient pretext for Mr. Abe to seek a fresh term while he has political advantage on his side. Opposition parties are weak and disorganized, and although his once-sky-high poll ratings have slipped he remains relatively popular, with public support of around 50 percent.

本屆國會的任期將持續到2016年年中，如果現在重新舉行選舉，將比法律規定的必要期限提前了一年半。一些政治評論人士稱，安倍晉三可能只是在利用稅率問題，在自己還有政治優勢的時候尋求連任。反對派政黨目前不堪一擊、組織混亂，儘管安倍晉三曾經超高的支持率已經下滑，但仍然處於較高水平，在50%左右。

A majority of voters say they would like to see the tax hike scrapped, and the conventional wisdom is that the L.D.P. would easily win a snap election, particularly if its campaign were based on changing course on the tax.

多數選民說，他們希望取消增稅計劃，而外界普遍認爲，如果提前舉行大選，自民黨將輕易取勝，特別是在他們以更改稅法爲基礎展開競選的情況下。