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中國再度出手提振經濟增長

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China has acted to stimulate its slowing economy, cutting sharply the level of cash commercial banks must park with the central bank in a strong signal of intent to boost flagging growth.

中國已採取措施刺激不斷放緩的經濟,央行大幅下調商業銀行存款準備金率,這個強大的信號表明政府有意提振疲弱的增長。

The People’s Bank of China moved to free up cash to lend to business by cutting its so-called the reserve requirement ratio by 1 percentage point just days after data revealed the country’s economy expanded its slowest pace for six years in the first quarter.

中國央行下調金融機構存款準備金率1個百分點,讓商業銀行有更多資金向企業放貸。幾天前發佈的數據顯示,中國經濟在今年第一季度以6年來最慢的速度擴張。

中國再度出手提振經濟增長

The PBoC has only once before reduced the reserve requirement ratio by as much and that was during the depths of the financial crisis in November 2008.

中國央行以往只有一次以同樣大的幅度下調存準率,那是在2008年11月,即金融危機最嚴重時期。

“This clearly signals that China has entered into an aggressive monetary easing cycle, to counter the economic slowdown and the rising deflation risk,” said economists at bank ANZ. “This surprising move suggests the authorities are frustrated by the stubbornly high real interest rates facing the Chinese enterprises.”

“這個信號清楚地表明,中國已進入一個激進的貨幣寬鬆週期,以對抗經濟放緩和不斷上升的通縮風險。”澳新銀行(ANZ)的經濟學家們表示,“這個出人意料之舉似乎表明,當局對中國企業面對的實際利率居高不下問題感到沮喪。”

The required reserve ratio, known as the RRR, specifies the portion of a commercial bank’s deposits that must be held on reserve at China’s central bank, where it is unavailable for loans and other investments.

存款準備金率(簡稱RRR)規定了商業銀行吸納的存款中,有多大一部分必須存在中國央行,這些資金不能用於放貸和進行其他投資。

China has already cut benchmark interest rates twice and lowered the RRR once since November. The size of the latest reduction to 18.5 per cent exceeds analyst expectations for a 50 basis point cut sometime this month, after first-quarter growth slipped to 7 per cent, held back by a slowdown in construction and manufacturing.

此前,中國自去年11月以來已兩次下調基準利率,一次下調存準率。最近這次下調使存準率降至18.5%,力度超出分析師之前預期的本月某個時刻降準50個基點。幾天前發佈的數據顯示,受建築業和製造業放緩的拖累,今年首季度中國經濟同比增速放緩至7%。

That was the weakest quarterly expansion since early 2009. The Chinese government had previously announced a growth target of “around 7 per cent” for 2015.

這是自2009年初以來最疲弱的季度擴張。中國政府此前宣佈,2015年增長目標爲“7%左右”。

China’s booming growth in recent years forced the PBOC to keep bank reserves high to help manage capital inflows. But now, slower growth has reduced the amount of foreign money flowing in while Chinese banks’ net foreign exchange purchases recorded their largest-ever decline in December and January.

中國近年來的迅猛增長迫使央行保持較高的存準率,以幫助控制資本流入。但現在,增長放緩已減少了境外資金流入,而中國各銀行的淨外匯購買量在去年12月和今年1月錄得史上最大幅度的下降。

“With the fall-off in capital inflows the central bank needs to cut reserve requirements fairly substantially just to keep monetary policy neutral,” said Andrew Batson of Gavekal Dragonomics, which forecasts that China will cut RRR by 200 basis points or more this year.

“隨着資本流入直線下滑,央行僅僅是爲了保持貨幣政策中性,就需要以相當大的幅度下調存款準備金率,”龍洲經訊(Gavekal Dragonomics)的白安儒(Andrew Batson)表示。這家研究公司預測,中國今年將下調存款準備金率200個基點或更多。

The move to lower the RRR on Sunday came a day after official data showed average new home prices fell year on year for a seventh consecutive month in March.

下調存準率的消息在週日出爐的前一天,官方數據顯示,3月份新房均價連續第七個月出現同比下降。

However, the drop narrowed from February after a number of cities introduced measures to encourage purchases. In Shanghai, home prices were flat, while prices in Beijing and Shenzhen rose.

然而,在多個城市出臺鼓勵購房的措施後,房價降幅與2月份相比有所收窄。上海的房價持平,而北京和深圳的房價有所上漲。

The slower pace of decline in property prices suggests loosening measures adopted over the past year are starting to feed through.

房價下降的放緩似乎表明,過去一年出臺的放鬆措施正開始產生效果。

New home prices fell in 49 of the 70 cities tracked by the statistics bureau, compared with 66 cities last month. Average prices fell by 6.1 per cent in March compared with a year ago, according to an FT analysis of official figures, but only by 0.2 per cent compared with a month earlier. In February, prices dropped 0.4 per cent from the month before.

在中國國家統計局追蹤的全國70個大中城市中,有50個城市的新建商品住宅價格在3月份環比下降,而前一個月的這個數字爲66個。根據英國《金融時報》對中國官方數據的分析,3月份平均房價同比下降6.1%,但環比降幅只有0.2%。2月份的房價環比降幅爲0.4%。

Real estate supports about 40 industries, from cement and construction to furniture and other consumer goods. It accounts for about 15 per cent of Chinese economic activity.

從水泥、建築到傢俱和其他消費品,房地產支撐着大約40個行業。它大約佔到中國經濟活動的15%。

A normal uptick in home buying during the spring played a role, but property agents also reported they were busier than usual.

春季購房量的正常上揚起到了一定作用,但房產中介也報告稱,他們比平常更忙了。

“The rate of sales has been higher in the past month than it has for the past two or three years. Some apartments that have been on the market for over a year have suddenly sold,” said Wan Jie, a real estate agent in Beijing.

“過去一個月的銷售速度高於過去兩三年。一些在市場上放了一年多的公寓突然就賣掉了,”北京房產中介萬潔(音)表示。

Late last month, authorities reduced minimum down payments for buyers of second homes and also cut to two years the length of time a seller had to have owned the home in order to avoid paying a business tax. The moves come as Chinese authorities become increasingly concerned at the rate at which the country’s broader economic growth is slowing.

上月下旬,當局降低了購買第二套住房的首付款要求,並將營業稅的免徵門檻從五年縮短至兩年。這些舉措出臺之際,中國政府越來越擔憂整體經濟放緩的速度。

The relaxing of restrictions winds back constraints put in place by former premier Wen Jiabao, whose curbs on bank lending and property purchases were designed to stop a politically unpopular rise in high-end housing prices.

這些放鬆舉措逆轉了前總理溫家寶出臺的限制政策,後者意在抑制銀行放貸和購房行爲,以遏止在政治上失分的高端房價上漲。

Those policies helped feed the growth of China’s shadow banking sector, as desperate property developers turned to unregulated high-interest loans, and marked the incursion of state-owned developers into a sector that had previously been dominated by private entrepreneurs.

這些政策幫助推動了中國影子銀行業的增長(因爲房地產開發商在絕望之下轉向不受監管的高息貸款),並且標誌着國有開發商進入了一個此前由民營企業家主導的部門。