印度重獲“增長最快的大型經濟體”稱號

India has regained its title as the world’s fastest-growing major economy, after figures confirmed it grew by more than 7 per cent on an annualised basis in the three months to December, overtaking China once more.

印度重獲“世界增長最快的大型經濟體”稱號，此前數據證實，在截至去年12月的三個月內，印度經濟同比增長7%以上，再次跑贏中國。

Data released yesterday show the economy grew at an annual rate of 7.2 per cent in the final quarter of last year, continuing its bounceback from a sharp slowdown in the middle of 2017. The Chinese economy grew 6.8 per cent on an annualised basis over the same period.

昨日公佈的數據顯示，去年末季印度經濟同比增長7.2%，延續從2017年年中大幅放緩的反彈。同期中國經濟同比增長6.8%。

The data are a boost for Narendra Modi, prime minister, who has come under pressure because of the economic slowdown, ahead of a general election due next year. The news also comes as a welcome relief following a week in which his administration has been attacked for failing to prevent a $1.8bn fraud at the state-owned Punjab National Bank.

這些數據對印度總理納倫德拉?莫迪(Narendra Modi)是一個助力，他在明年大選之前由於經濟放緩而受到壓力。在經歷了難熬的一週——其間他的政府受到指責，被指未能防止國有的旁遮普國家銀行(Punjab National Bank)遭遇18億美元欺詐——之後，這個消息也讓莫迪政府欣慰地鬆了口氣。

Piyush Goyal, the railways minister who is seen as close to Mr Modi, welcomed yesterday’s figures, tweeting: “India’s GDP growth momentum continues strongly & sustainably — jumps to 7.2% in 3rd quarter of 2017-18, makes India the fastest growing large economy in the world.”

被視爲與莫迪關係密切的鐵道部長皮尤什?戈亞爾(Piyush Goyal)對昨日的數據表示歡迎。他在Twitter上寫道：“印度的GDP增長勢頭保持強勁且可持續——在2017-18財年的第三季度躍升至7.2%，使印度成爲世界上增長最快的大型經濟體”。

Pronab Sen, the country’s former chief statistician, called the figures “very strong — much stronger than expected”.

印度前首席統計師普羅納布?森(Pronab Sen)形容這些數字“非常強勁——比預期強勁得多”。

Mr Modi came to power in 2014 promising economic reforms that would help boost the economy and create 10m jobs a year, just shy of the estimated 13m India needs to account for the number of young people entering the workforce each year.

莫迪於2014年上臺執政，承諾推行經濟改革，以促進經濟發展，每年創造1000萬個就業機會，僅略低於印度每年需要爲進入勞動力市場的1300萬年輕人提供的就業崗位。

But his record had come under fire following his sudden decision in 2016 to cancel most of the country’s banknotes, followed by a botched attempt to reform the complex sales tax system.

但在他於2016年突然決定廢止印度的大部分紙幣、隨後又搞砸了對複雜的銷售稅制度的改革後，他的政績受到抨擊。

The problems arising from both of these moves helped knock the economy off course last year, as it fell from growth of 9.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2016 to just 5.7 per cent in the three months to June 2017.

這兩個舉措帶來的問題在一定程度上導致印度經濟去年驟然放緩，增速從2016年第一季度的9.1%降至2017年第二季度的5.7%。

Last month, Arun Jaitley, the finance minister, attempted to mitigate some of the effects of the slowdown as he announced a budget which included higher minimum prices for farmers and free health insurance for 100m poor families.

上月，印度財長阿倫?亞特力(Arun Jaitley)試圖緩解經濟放緩的一部分影響。他宣佈一項預算，其中包括調高面向農戶的最低收購價格以及爲1億貧困家庭提供免費醫保。

That slowdown was reversed in the third quarter of last year, and yesterday’s data showed the improvement con-tinued in the following quarter.

經濟放緩在去年第三季度發生逆轉，昨日數據顯示接下來那個季度的經濟形勢繼續好轉。

The most recent quarter’s data were boosted in particular by a recovery in construction, which ex-panded 6.8 per cent. This had been one of the sectors to suffer most in the wake of demonetisation, with many of India’s property deals having previously been paid for in cash as a way to avoid tax. Manufacturing meanwhile grew 8.1 per cent, while the country’s important agricultural sector was 4.1 per cent larger.

最近一個季度的數據尤其受到建築業復甦的推動，該行業擴張6.8%。此前這是遭受“廢鈔令”最沉重打擊的行業之一，因爲以往印度有很多房地產交易以現金支付，作爲一種避稅手段。與此同時製造業增長8.1%，而印度重要的農業部門增長4.1%。

Earlier in the day, the credit rating agency Moody’s had said that it expected India to grow by 7.6 per cent in 2018.

當日早些時候，信用評級機構穆迪(Moody’s)表示，預計2018年印度經濟將增長7.6%。

It said: “There are some signs that the Indian economy is starting to recover from the soft growth patch attributed to the negative impact of the demonetisation undertaken in 2016 and disruption related to last year’s rollout of the Goods and Service Tax.”

該機構稱：“有跡象顯示，印度經濟正開始從一段疲弱增長期復甦，這段疲弱時期可歸因於2016年廢鈔舉措的負面影響，以及與去年出臺商品和服務稅有關的擾亂。”

The International Monetary Fund has forecast India will grow by 7.4 per cent in 2018 and 7.8 per cent in 2019.

國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)預測，2018年印度經濟將增長7.4%，2019年將增長7.8%。