中國經濟增長比去槓桿化更重要
China’s record expansion of credit in January reveals Beijing’s Policy priorities. It sees avoiding a “hard landing” for the economy as more critical than imposing control over what some analysts call a debt “bubble”.
中國1月份創紀錄的信貸擴張揭示了北京方面的政策重點。在它看來，比起控制住一些分析師所稱的債務“泡沫”，避免經濟“硬着陸”才更爲關鍵。
Several other strands of China’s broader economic policy were also discernible in the January lending numbers. Beijing wants to funnel relief to debt-laden companies, crank up investment, boost the property market, pay off foreign loans and use the bond market to effectively bail out local governments.
從1月的貸款數字中還能看出中國整體經濟政策的其他幾條脈絡。北京方面希望向負債累累的企業輸送救濟，加大投資，提振樓市，償清外債，並利用債券市場有效地爲地方政府紓困。
“This strategy [is to] help avoid a hard landing in the economy in 2016, though at the cost of continuing to fuel the credit bubble,” wrote David Hensley of JPMorgan in a research note.
摩根大通(JPMorgan)的大衛亨斯利(David Hensley)在一份研究報告中寫道：“該戰略是爲了幫助避免2016年出現經濟硬着陸，儘管要付出繼續推動信貸泡沫的代價。”
Though the jump in lending was partly driven by seasonal influences, it was clear from the composition of lending that Beijing, which wields considerable influence over its financial sector, was also seeking to stimulate activity in the real economy.
雖然貸款躍升在一定程度上是季節性因素促成的，但從貸款構成可明顯看出，對國內金融業有相當大影響力的政府，也在尋求刺激實體經濟的活動。
Medium and long-term corporate loan growth — the portion of lending that tends to be channelled most directly to long-term productive investments — rose sharply, rising 205 per cent month-on-month and 73.2 per cent year-on-year to Rmb1.06tn ($162.6bn).
中期和長期企業貸款大幅上漲，環比上升205%，同比上升73.2%，至1.06萬億元人民幣（合1626億美元）。這部分貸款往往大都直接投向長期生產性投資。
“This suggests that lending to infrastructure projects is increasing and that earlier bottlenecks in the funding of these projects are being cleared,” according to a research note from FT Confidential Research, a unit of the Financial Times.
據英國《金融時報》旗下“投資參考”(FT Confidential Research)的一份研究報告，“這似乎表明，對基礎設施項目的放貸正在增加，這些項目此前的資金瓶頸正被疏通。”
Total renminbi loans rose to a monthly record high of Rmb2.51tn in January, up from Rmb597.8bn in December to form the main portion of a total Rmb3.42tn in total social financing (TSF), the broadest official measure of credit expansion. This figure, also a monthly record, was nearly double the Rmb1.81tn in December’s TSF.
去年12月人民幣貸款總量爲5978億元人民幣，今年1月份升至2.51萬億元人民幣（創下單月最高紀錄），這構成3.42萬億元人民幣社會融資總量(TSF)——覆蓋面最廣的官方信貸擴張指標——的主要部分。該數字幾乎是去年12月1.81萬億元人民幣社會融資總量的兩倍，同樣創下單月最高紀錄。
Policymakers had been seeking to strike a balance between encouraging gross domestic product growth without exacerbating longer-term risks from excessive debt. January’s numbers have revealed that their immediate priority lies with generating growth, though analysts said it would be unthinkable for January’s high levels to continue all year.
此前中國的政策制定者一直在尋求取得平衡，他們希望在不加劇過度債務較長期風險的前提下，鼓勵國內生產總值(GDP)增長。1月的數字揭示了他們的當前重點在於促進增長，儘管分析師們表示1月的高水平不太可能持續全年。
Indeed, local media reported in late January that central bank officials told commercial banks to slow the pace of lending following a flood of credit in the initial weeks of the year.
的確，據中國媒體報道，繼今年開頭幾周的信貸大潮後，中國央行官員在1月下旬指示商業銀行減緩放貸速度。
Bond issuance rose sharply in line with Beijing’s strategy of promoting direct financing to alleviate stress on the banking system, which suffers from proliferating non-performing and overdue loans. China’s bond market grew by 34 per cent in size last year, its fastest pace since 2008.
債券發行大幅增長，這符合北京方面促進直接融資以緩解銀行體系壓力的戰略，中國的銀行體系正遭遇不良貸款和逾期貸款激增的問題。去年中國債券市場規模增長了34%，這是2008年以來最快增速。
In January, corporate bond issuance picked up to Rmb454.7bn, compared with Rmb356bn in December as companies used bonds to help repay outstanding loans and raise funds to invest.
公司債券發行量從12月的3560億元人民幣增至1月的4547億元人民幣，企業通過債券來償還貸款和募集投資所需資金。
Beijing was also likely to continue relying on the bond market to alleviate the financial distress of local governments, which have been banned from borrowing from banks or the corporate bond market since the start of last year. Instead, they have been selling municipal bonds, which are not picked up by the TSF numbers, according to Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist at Capital Economics, a research company.
北京方面也可能繼續依靠債券市場來緩解地方政府的財政壓力。自去年初開始，地方政府被禁止從銀行或者公司債券市場借款。相反，它們一直在發售市政債券；據研究機構凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)中國經濟學家朱利安埃文斯-普里查德(Julian Evans-Pritchard)介紹，市政債券的發行量並不計入社會融資總量數據。
However, if these muni bond issues are added back in to the TSF numbers, it is clear that overall credit in China has been expanding since mid-2015 (see chart).
然而，如果把這些市政債券發行計入社會融資總量，很明顯中國的總體信貸自2015年中期以來一直在擴張（見圖）。
Separately, January’s numbers showed a continuation of the shift away from foreign currency lending, as concerns over further renminbi depreciation weighed upon corporations and banks. Foreign currency-denominated loans declined by Rmb172bn. Over seven months, foreign loans have slumped by Rmb859bn in total.
另外，1月份的數據表明了迴避外幣借貸的趨勢延續，原因是對於人民幣可能進一步貶值的憂慮讓企業和銀行感到不安。外幣計價貸款下降了1720億元人民幣。7個月期間，外幣貸款總共下降了8590億元人民幣。
Shen Jianguang, chief Asia economist at Mizuho Securities, said that the People’s Bank of China was likely to keep the renminbi exchange rate relatively stable in order to guide market expectations. “As renminbi depreciation expectations as well as capital outflows start to ease, there is more room for the PBoC to cut the required reserve ratios or interest rates in the near future,” Mr Shen said.
瑞穗證券(Mizuho Securities)亞洲首席經濟學家沈建光表示，中國央行可能會保持人民幣匯率相對穩定，以指引市場預期。“隨着人民幣貶值預期和資本外流開始減輕，央行有更多空間在不久的未來下調法定存款準備金率或者利率，”沈建光表示。
A cut in the required reserve ratio, which defines what proportion of deposits banks should keep with the central bank, has the impact of injecting more liquidity into the economy.
法定存款準備金率定義了銀行應該繳存央行的準備金佔其存款的比例，下調存款準備金率會向經濟注入更多流動性。
Medium to long-term household loans also rose to their highest monthly amount since 2012 in January, in a sign that China’s housing market is gradually recovering from a downturn that began in 2014.
1月，中長期家庭貸款也上升至自2012年以來的月度最高水平，這表明中國的房地產市場正從2014年開始的低迷逐漸復甦。
