閒置樓盤突顯中國經濟增長的困境

In a steel and coal-mining region of 5m people in the Chinese heartland, signs of economic slowdown are everywhere.

在中國內陸鍊鋼和採煤腹地一個500萬人口的城市，經濟增長放緩的跡象隨處可見。

Forests of newly built but nearly abandoned apartment complexes, with names such as Fortune Plaza and Golden Riverside, ring central Yuncheng while, on the outskirts of town, the district’s largest steel mill has gone bust, leaving mountains of unpaid debt and nearly 10,000 workers idle.

山西省運城市的市中心林立着幾乎無人居住的新建公寓樓，其名稱是“財富廣場”及“黃金水岸”之類，而在該市遠郊，當地最大的鋼鐵廠已經破產，留下鉅額未償債務和近1萬名無事可做的工人。

“I used to bring lots of investors and steel people out here to visit the plant,” says Zhang Pu, a taxi driver waiting outside an empty hotel next to the headquarters of Highsee Group, the troubled steelmaker.

“我曾把大量投資者和鋼鐵行業人士拉到這兒參觀這家廠，”在一家冷清的酒店外等候的出租車司機張蒲（音譯）表示。這家酒店的旁邊就是陷入困境的鋼鐵企業海鑫鋼鐵集團(Highsee Group)的總部。

“These days the only people who want to come here are local peasant farmers or debt collectors.”

“如今要到這兒來的人只有當地的農民或討債的。”

China’s economy expan­ded 7.4 per cent in the first quarter of the year from the same period a year earlier, a sharp slowdown from 7.7 per cent growth in the fourth quarter of 2013. That is still an enviable rate by the standard of most countries but, in Yuncheng and other cities across China, the headline figure masks a multitude of problems.

中國經濟在今年第一季度同比增長7.4%，較2013年第四季度7.7%的同比增幅有大幅放緩。按照大多數國家的標準，這仍是一個令人羨慕的增長率，但在運城和中國各地其他城市，這個整體數字掩蓋了種種問題。

The main reason for the slowdown is a slump in fixed asset investment, the biggest driver of the Chinese economy. In the first three months of the year, investment grew 17.6 per cent from the same period a year earlier, the slowest pace since late 2002.

放緩的主要原因是，中國經濟的最大推動因素——固定資產投資增長大幅減速。今年前三個月，這項投資同比增長17.6%，是2002年末以來最慢的。

The slide was largely caused by slowing real estate investment, which also experienced its weakest growth in more than a decade. The situation is certain to get worse in the coming months, as new housing floor space under construction contracted 27.2 per cent in the first quarter.

這一下滑主要是房地產投資減速所致，該行業也經歷了10多年來最疲弱的增長。未來幾個月內，形勢肯定會變得更糟。今年第一季度，中國住宅新開工面積下降了27.2%。

That was largely a reaction to declining sales, which fell 5.7 per cent in terms of floor space in the first quarter from a year earlier, with the fall pronounced in smaller inland cities such as Yuncheng.

這主要是對銷售下滑的反應，今年第一季度，住宅銷售面積同比下降5.7%。像運城這樣的內陸中小城市，降幅尤爲顯著。

“Our surveys show clear divergence in price trends with first-tier major cities experiencing mildly rising housing prices,” Sheng Laiyun, spokesman for China’s National Bureau of Statistics, said yesterday while announcing first-quarter gross domestic product data. “In some second-tier cities prices are shaky and in third and fourth-tier cities, especially those with ample supply, prices have come down.” The fate of China’s overheated real estate market is absolutely critical to the health of the overall economy. Real estate construction directly accounted for 16 per cent of GDP in 2013, according to estimates from Nomura. At that level China is approaching a dependence on real estate last seen in Ireland and Spain before the bursting of their real estate bubbles.

“（調查顯示）房價確實是出現了一些明顯的分化，一線城市房價溫和上漲，”中國國家統計局新聞發言人盛來運昨日在公佈第一季度國內生產總值(GDP)數據的新聞發佈會上表示，“部分二線城市房價有所鬆動，一些住房存量比較多的三四線城市房價出現了下降。”中國過熱的房地產市場的命運，對整體經濟的健康絕對至關重要。根據野村(Nomura)的估算，2013年房地產建設直接佔到中國GDP的16%。這樣的比重意味着，中國經濟對房地產的依賴度正接近房地產泡沫破滅之前的愛爾蘭和西班牙。

Many of the industries suffering from severe overcapacity in China, such as steel, cement and glass, are heavily indebted and reliant on continued rapid growth in property construction for their survival.

中國許多產業存在嚴重產能過剩，如鋼鐵、水泥和玻璃，這些產業負債累累，其生存有賴於房地產建設持續快速增長。

Land sales and property-related taxes accounted for 38 per cent of total government revenue in 2013 and heavily indebted local governments have used highly priced land as collateral for the majority of their loans.

賣地及房地產相關稅收佔2013年政府總收入的38%，負債累累的地方政府已將高價土地用作其大部分貸款的抵押品。

A property crash would not only lead to collapsing growth in the world’s second-largest economy and largest commodity consumer but would also have a huge impact on households, which have an estimated two-thirds of their assets tied up in real estate.

房地產崩盤不僅會導致全球第二大經濟體兼頭號大宗商品消費國增長急劇下滑，也會對家庭產生巨大影響，目前中國家庭估計有三分之二的資產被套牢在房地產中。

In numerous places such as Yuncheng, the crash has already begun.

在許多地方，比如運城，樓市崩盤已經開始。

“Prices are falling and sales are really terrible because too many apartments have been built and so many of them are empty,” said a sales manager at a property development on the outskirts of Yuncheng who would only give his surname, Guo. “Even in a situation like this they are still building new housing complexes. It’s completely crazy!”

“價格不斷下降，銷售數字真的很可怕，因爲建成了太多的公寓，很多都閒置着。”運城郊外某個樓盤的一名姓郭的銷售經理表示，“即使在這樣的形勢下，他們仍在建設新的住宅區。完全是瘋了！”

Mr Guo said that in the district where the Highsee steel mill has gone out of business, the local government approved 800,000 square metres of new construction last year, even though the district’s total population is only 300,000.

郭先生說，在海鑫鋼廠已經停業的那個地方，當地政府去年批准新開工80萬平方米，儘管該地總人口只有30萬。

As night falls in Yuncheng, the dilemma facing the government is dramatically illustrated by the very few lights blinking on in newly constructed apartment towers.

夜幕降臨在運城後，新落成的公寓大樓上亮燈的窗戶極少，令中國政府面臨的兩難困境表露無遺。

In the past, Beijing has turned to credit-fuelled prop­erty construction as the easiest way to boost flagging growth. But with so many freshly built apartment towers already standing empty, another round of state-sanctioned building would amount to yin zhen zhi ke – “drinking poison to quench one’s thirst”.

以往，北京方面把轉向信貸助推的房地產建設當作刺激乏力增長的最簡便方法。但鑑於已經有這麼多新建公寓樓閒置着，推出又一輪政府支持的建設只會起到“飲鳩止渴”的作用。