印度大幅上調經濟增長數據

India’s attempts to catch up with China’s rate of economic expansion have received an unexpected boost from statistical revisions that dramatically raised estimates of gross domestic product growth during the past two years.

統計修訂出人意料地幫助了印度趕上中國經濟增長率的努力。這些調整大幅提高了過去兩年印度國內生產總值(GDP)增長率的估測值。

Forecasts put India on course to overtake its larger neighbour next year, with the International Monetary Fund projecting 2016 growth at 6.5 per cent, while China slows to 6.3 per cent.

根據預測，印度明年有望趕超規模更大的鄰國——中國。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)預計，2016年印度增長率爲6.5%，而中國將放緩至6.3%。

The recent growth gap now appears to have been smaller than thought, after India’s main statistical body released revised estimates on Friday showing the economy growing by 6.9 per cent during the 2014 financial year, up from the previous figure of 4.7 per cent. China grew 7.4 per cent in the 2014 calendar year, IMF data show.

在印度主要統計機構上週五公佈了經過修訂的估測數字後，兩國間近年增長率差距似乎小於以往的理解。數據顯示，2014財年印度經濟的增長率是6.9%，高於此前的4.7%。而IMF的數據顯示，2014日曆年度，中國經濟增長率是7.4%。

Indian growth for the financial year to March 2013 was also revised from 4.7 per cent to 5.1 per cent in changes announced by India’s Central Statistical Organisation.

此外，在印度中央統計局(Central Statistical Organisation)公佈的數據調整結果中，對於截至2013年3月的財年，印度增長率也從4.7%上調至5.1%。

Economist Shilan Shah, at consultants Capital Economics, said: “If true, this implies there is much less room for a substantial pick-up in growth without stoking inflation. But this picture of health is hard to square with numerous other indicators that point to increasing slack in the economy.”

諮詢公司凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)的經濟學家希蘭•沙阿(Shilan Shah)表示：“如果這是真的，它意味着印度在不擡高通脹的情況下大幅提高增長率的空間大大減小。不過，有關印度經濟狀況良好的這一統計圖景與其他顯示印度經濟疲軟的指標很難自圓其說。”

The revisions follow changes in the way growth is gauged to bring India in line with international norms. James Crabtree, Mumbai

在公佈數據調整之前，印度對增長率的統計方式進行了多方面改革，使印度的統計工作與國際規範接軌。