經濟增長不能保證幸福感上升大綱

Philosophers from Aristotle to the Beatles have argued that money does not buy happiness. But it seems to help. Since 2005 Gallup, a pollster, has asked a representative sample of adults from countries across the world to rate their life satisfaction on a scale from zero to ten. The headline result is clear: the richer the country, on average, the higher the level of self-reported happiness. The simple correlation suggests that doubling GDP per person lifts life satisfaction by about 0.7 points.

從亞里士多德到披頭士，哲學家們都認爲金錢買不到幸福，但似乎有所（對幸福感提升）幫助。自2005年以來，民意調查機構蓋洛普對來自世界各國的成年人代表進行了民意測試，要求他們對自己的生活滿意度從0到10進行打分。結果表明：平均而言，一個國家越富有，幸福感就越高。這個簡單的相關性調查表明，人均國內生產總值翻一番，生活滿意度將提高了0.7個百分點。

Yet the prediction that as a country gets richer its mood will improve has a dubious record. In 1974 Richard Easterlin, an economist, discovered that average life satisfaction in America had stagnated between 1946 and 1970 even as GDP per person had grown by 65% over the same period. He went on to find a similar disconnect in other places, too. Although income is correlated with happiness when looking across countries—and although economic downturns are reliable sources of temporary misery—long-term GDP growth does not seem to be enough to turn the average frown upside-down.

然而，有預言說隨着國家變得越來越富有，其情緒將會改善，這一預言並不可靠。1974年，經濟學家理查德 · 伊斯特林發現，1946年至1970年間，美國人均國內生產總值增長了65% ，而其生活滿意度卻停滯不前。他在其他地方也發現了類似的脫節現象。縱觀各個國家，收入與幸福之間存在關聯——儘管經濟衰退是痛苦的來源——但長期國內生產總值增長似乎不足以扭轉公衆的不滿情緒。

The "Easterlin paradox" has been hotly disputed since, with some economists claiming to find a link between growth and rising happiness by using better quality data. On March 20th the latest Gallup data were presented in the World Happiness Report, an annual UN-backed study. The new data provide some ammunition for both sides of the debate but, on the whole, suggest that the paradox is alive and well.

自那以來，“伊斯特林悖論”一直備受爭議，一些經濟學家聲稱，他們通過使用更高質量的數據，找到了經濟增長與幸福感上升之間的聯繫。3月20日，最新的蓋洛普數據在聯合國支持的年度《世界幸福報告》中發佈。這一新數據爲辯論雙方提供了一些把柄，但總體而言，這一悖論仍然存在。

There are important examples of national income and happiness rising and falling together. The most significant—in terms of population—is China, where GDP per person has doubled over a decade, while average happiness has risen by 0.43 points. Among rich countries Germany enjoys higher incomes and greater cheer than ten years ago. Venezuela, once the fifth-happiest country in the world, has become miserable as its economy has collapsed. Looking across countries, growth is correlated with rising happiness.

存在有國民收入和幸福指數升降的典型例子。就人口而言，最顯著的是中國。過去10年，中國人均國內生產總值翻了一番，與此同時人均幸福指數上升了0.43個百分點。在富裕國家中，德國享有比十年前更高的收入和更多的歡樂。委內瑞拉曾經是世界上排名第五的幸福國家，現在卻因爲經濟崩潰而變得不幸。縱觀各個國家，經濟增長與幸福感的提高密切相關。

Yet that correlation is very weak. Of the 125 countries for which good data exist, 43 have seen GDP per person and happiness move in opposite directions. Like China, India is a populous developing economy that is growing quickly. But happiness is down by about 1.2 points in the past decade. America, the subject of Easterlin's initial study, has again seen happiness fall as the economy has grown. In total the world's population looks roughly equally divided between places where happiness and incomes have moved in the same direction over the past ten years, and places where they have diverged.

然而，這種相關性非常微弱。在有可靠數據的125個國家中，有43個國家的人均國內生產總值和幸福指數呈反比。與中國一樣，印度也是一個人口衆多、經濟增長迅速的發展中國家。但是在過去的十年裏，幸福感下降了1.2個百分點。伊斯特林的最初研究對象美國隨着經濟的增長，幸福感在下降。總體而言，世界人口大致平均分佈在兩個地區，其中一個地區在過去十年中幸福感和收入水平呈正比，另一個地區則呈反比。