經濟衰退時哪些工作不易丟?

Before, during and after the recession, demand for one sort of worker has been persistently stronger: jobs that involve assisting or caring for other people - from fast-food workers to home-health aides to nail polishers.

無論是經濟衰退前、經濟衰退中還是經濟衰退後，有一類人員一直比較走俏──他們從事着輔助他人的生活或是照料他人生活的工作，包括快餐店員工、家庭保健護理師和美甲師等。

These occupations have one thing in common: They aren't easily automated or outsourced abroad. 'You can't send people to China or India for a haircut,' says Israel Kakuriev, 37 years old, who has been cutting hair in midtown Manhattan for the past 20 years. Nor is there, yet, a robot that can cut hair or hold the hand of an elderly woman with Alzheimer's or do all the chores that flight attendants do.

這些行業都有一個共同點──不易於實行自動化操作或是被外包到海外。今年37歲、已在曼哈頓中城幹了20年理髮工作的伊茲蕾•卡庫爾耶夫(Israel Kakuriev)說道，“你總不能把別人送到中國或印度去理髮吧。”而且，現在還沒有能理髮的機器人，沒有能夠攙扶患有老年癡呆症的老婦人的機器人，也沒有能夠處理空乘人員那些雜務的機器人。

The U.S. government releases its latest snapshot of the job market Friday morning amid worrisome signs that economic growth is slowing well short of full employment.

目前美國出現了經濟增長放緩、就業遠遠不夠充分的令人擔憂的跡象，在此背景之下美國政府最近公佈了最新的就業初步數據。

But economists see a couple of longer-term trends. Dividing the workforce into high, medium and lower-skill workers, they note that around the world, demand for the most skilled and educated - from engineers to specialized factory workers - has been relatively strong. But globalization and technology have eroded demand for routine middle-skill, middle wage jobs: In factories, assembly jobs have been eliminated by automation or moved overseas; in offices, tasks once done by humans are done by computers and voice-response software.

經濟學家從中發現了一些長期趨勢。他們將所有勞動力劃分爲高級技能人員、中級技能人員和低級技能人員，他們指出全球範圍而言就業市場對技能最高、教育程度也最高的人員（工程師、特殊技能工廠工人等）的需求相對比較強。然而，全球化和科技的發展削弱了美國國內對常規的中等技能和中等薪資的崗位的需求。例如，工廠中的裝配崗位因爲自動化或是遷往海外而消失，而以往由人處理的辦公室事務如今也改由電腦和語音應答軟件處理。

At the same time, Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist David Autor notes an increase in personal-service jobs - the ones that can't be done remotely from overseas and can't easily be done by machines. To measure this, Mr. Autor and MIT's Daron Acemoglu sliced the U.S. workforce into 318 occupations, ranked by skill and education. Between 1989 and 2007 - just before the recession - they found a 5% increase in routinized production, machine-operator and clerical jobs - but a 36% increase in personal-service jobs and a 40% increase in top-of-the-pyramid jobs, such as managers, professionals and finance wizards.

與此同時，麻省理工學院(Massachusetts Institute of Technology)的經濟學家戴維•奧托爾(David Autor)注意到個人服務崗位──那些無法外包到海外操作的工作或是不易用機器操作的工作──有所增加。爲了評估這一狀況，奧托爾和麻省理工學院的達倫•阿西莫格魯(Daron Acemoglu)依據技能和教育程度的高低將美國的從業人員細分爲318個崗位。他們發現，在1989年至衰退即將發生之前的2007年期間，常規的生產崗位、機器操作崗位以及文書崗位增加了5%，但個人服務崗位增加了36%，而處於金字塔頂尖的崗位，例如管理人員、專業人士和金融人才崗位的增幅則高達40%。

This polarization of the job market has persisted. Between 2007 and 2010, the total number of jobs in the U.S. fell by nearly 6%, but the previous pattern held: The number of middle-skill jobs, those most susceptible to automation or offshoring, fell by 12%. The number of high-end, high-education jobs fell by 1%. But despite the recession, there was a 2% increase in personal-service jobs.

美國就業市場這種兩極分化的狀況一直都在持續。在2007年至2010年期間，美國的就業崗位總數下降了近6%，但之前那種兩極分化的模式依然存在。其中，最易受到自動化操作或海外外包衝擊的中等技能的工作崗位數量下降了12%，教育程度高的高端工作崗位的數量減少了1%。然而，儘管經濟發生衰退，個人服務崗位卻增加了2%。

Geraldine Arguello, 45, is a nurse's assistant at Colfax Senior Care Assisted Living in rural Raton, N.M., where she prepares meals, assists with dressing and grooming and organizes bingo games.

45歲的傑拉爾丁•阿奎羅(Geraldine Arguello)是新墨西哥州拉頓市(Raton)郊區老年人服務中心Colfax Senior Care Assisted Living的一名護士助理，她的工作內容包括做飯、協助老人們穿衣、梳洗和安排賓戈遊戲。

'People say anybody can do this, but it takes a lot to earn trust,' she says. 'You're providing mental stability for residents that are swallowing the fact that they're depending on others at this point to get by.' The pay isn't great, though. She makes about $10 an hour, occasionally as much as $15 an hour when she works in an individual's home.

阿奎羅說，“人們都說這個工作誰都可以幹，但是它需要你付出很多來贏得信任，你要使正在消化他們現在要依靠別人來過活這一事實的老人保持心理上的穩定。”這份工作的工資並不高，一小時大概是10美元，如果去單個客戶的家中上門服務一小時則可掙到15美元。

More jobs are better than fewer jobs - particularly for those who would otherwise be unemployed. But Mr. Autor cautions: 'These aren't going to be high-paying jobs because the skills are quite generic. Anyone can be productive at them in the next day or two. If you had to choose which jobs you'd want to go away, you'd pick these low-wage jobs, not the middle-skill ones.'

工作機會增加總比工作機會減少要好，對於那些要不然就會失業的人來說尤爲如此。但是，奧托爾提醒道，“這些都不是工資高的崗位，因爲它們涉及的技能都是相當通用的，任何人做這些工作一兩天之後都能非常熟練掌握。如果你必須選擇你不想做哪些工作，你會選那些工資低的而不是中等技能的工作。”

Luis Mejia, 42, never finished high school, but once made about $80,000 a year at a construction company, operating a vehicle that loads heavy materials onto trucks. That job evaporated with the real-estate bust. 'I had a lot of experience, so I thought it would be easy to find the same work, but nobody was hiring,' he said.

42歲的路易斯•梅吉亞(Luis Mejia)高中都沒有讀完，但他以前在一家建築公司工作時曾經能掙到一年80,000美元左右，工作內容就是操作一個將重物裝上卡車的工具。後來，這個工作連同房地產市場的泡沫一起蒸發了。梅吉亞說，“我有非常豐富的經驗，所以當初我認爲找份同樣的工作會比較容易，但是沒有公司有這樣的崗位招人。”

After substantial reluctance, Mr. Mejia and his wife, Margarita, turned to cleaning houses. 'To be honest, when I started doing this, I didn't like it. I was doing it because I had no choice,' he says.

在極其不情願地掙扎了一番之後，梅吉亞和妻子瑪格麗塔(Margarita)幹起了房屋清潔的工作。梅吉亞說，“說實話，開始做這份工作時，我並不喜歡它，做這工作是因爲我沒有選擇。”

Now their business, Margarita's Cleaning Services, cleans 45 to 50 houses a month and has hired its first employee. Rising around 6 a.m. and taking their 16-year-old to school before work, the couple cleans three or four houses a day, six days a week. They charge $80 for a two-bedroom house and $250 for bigger ones. The couple earns about $50,000 a year now, around 60% of Mr. Mejia's previous salary.

如今他們夫妻二人有了自己的小公司──“瑪格麗塔清潔服務公司”(Margarita's Cleaning Services)，每個月要打掃45至50套房子，他們還僱傭了自己的第一名員工。他們大概在早晨六點起牀，把16歲的孩子送去上學後便開始工作。他們夫妻二人每天要清潔三四套房子，一週工作六天時間。他們對一套兩居室房子的收費是80美元，面積更大的則要收取250美元。現在他們一年掙50,000美元左右，大約只有梅吉亞以前收入的60%。

The payrolls of brand-name U.S. corporations trace the same pattern: growing workforces in companies that specialize in personal services of all sorts and a decrease in those that have more routine occupations.

不僅如此，美國知名企業的員工名單也體現出了同樣的趨勢，專門從事各種類型的個人服務工作的企業的員工人數在增加，而常規行業崗位較多的企業的員工人數則在減少。

Since 2007, Panera Bread Co., a cafe chain, has increased its U.S. workforce by 22,000 jobs, a 50% increase. Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. a fast-food outfit, has added 12,000, a 63% increase. The four largest publicly traded home-health agencies have added 22,000 workers, up 84%.

自2007年以來，連鎖咖啡店Panera Bread在美國增加了22,000個工作崗位，增幅爲50%。快餐店Chipotle Mexican Grill增加了12,000個崗位，增幅達63%。此外，美國最大的四家上市家庭保健機構增聘了22,000名員工，增幅高達84%。

In contrast, auto maker Ford Motor Co.'s North American payrolls declined by 19,000, or 20%; manufacturer General Electric Co.'s U.S. workforce declined by 24,000, or 15%, and health insurer Aetna Inc.'s by 2,200, or 6%.

相比之下，汽車製造商福特(Ford Motor Co.)北美區的員工數量減少了19,000人，減幅達20%。此外，製造行業的通用電氣公司(General Electric Co.)的美國員工人數則減少了24,000人，比例達15%，醫療保險商Aetna的這個數字達2,200人，減幅達6%。

Before the recession, when unemployment was low and workers relatively scarce, wages for personal-service workers rose while wages for middle-skill jobs sagged. Mr. Autor and colleague David Dorn found a 16% increase in inflation-adjusted average hourly wages between 1980 and 2005 for these service workers and a 30% increase for the professionals, managers and upper-end finance workers. That contrasts with a 6% increase for machine operators and assemblers and a 4% decline for production and craft workers.

在經濟發生衰退之前，失業率較低而且從業人員數量相對比較少，私人服務業員工的工資有所上升，而中等技能崗位的薪資則在下降。奧托爾及其同事戴維•多恩(David Dorn)發現，在1980年至2005年期間，這些服務行業的員工的平均時薪經通脹調整後上升了16%，專業人士、管理人員和高端金融業從業人員的薪資上升了30%，而機器操作員、裝配工的薪資水平僅上升了6%，而從事生產和手工活的工人的工資更是降低了4%。

But the subsequent recession and sluggish recovery produced a glut of workers for these relatively low-skill, personal-service jobs; wages have been depressed as a consequence, Mr. Autor says. And incomes of barbers and some other personal-care workers were squeezed during the recession and immediately after the recession when many consumers cut back spending on easy-to-skip services such as dining out or delayed getting their hair cut.

然而，奧托爾還指出，後來發生的經濟衰退和疲軟的經濟復甦導致這些技能相對較低的個人服務業的員工供大於求，其薪資水平也因此受到抑制。理髮師和其他一些個人護理業員工的收入在衰退期間也受到擠壓，在經濟衰退結束不久之後，許多消費者削減了可以忽略不做或少做的服務方面的開支，例如少去餐館吃飯或者是延長每次理髮的間隔時間。

Regina Gilbert, 46, a mother of two, once made $48,000 doing clerical work in New York City's Administration for Children's Services, but that job disappeared after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks when the city turned to outside contractors to save money. She relied on unemployment benefits as long as she could and then performed odd jobs for years.

裏吉娜•吉爾伯特(Regina Gilbert)今年46歲，是兩個孩子的媽媽。她曾經在紐約市的兒童服務管理局(Administration for Children's Services)做文書工作，年薪爲48,000美元。但是，在2001年“9•11”恐怖襲擊事件發生之後，紐約市便將這些服務轉給外部承包商以節省資金，吉爾伯特的這個崗位也因此消失。她依靠領取儘可能長時間的失業救濟金生活，後來幹了幾年的零工。

Now she's working again - checking boarding passes at New York's John F. Kennedy International Airport and making $7.25 an hour without health benefits. Commuting from Brooklyn takes her two hours a day, and the transportation costs take a significant slice out of her take-home pay.

現在她已重新開始工作──在紐約的肯尼迪國際機場(John F. Kennedy International Airport)檢查登機牌，工資是7.25美元一小時，而且沒有醫療保險。每天從布魯克林乘車去上班需要兩個小時，交通費佔了她稅後收入的很大一部分。

'It is fulfilling,' she says, 'but every day I look at the money I make and the agony that I'm going through. I'm standing on my feet all day.'

她說，“這份工作讓人覺得充實，但是看看我每天掙的這點錢和我受的苦吧。我（上班時）一整天都要站着。”